Vulnerability to natural hazards of green economy assets and systems

In recent years the push towards a green economy (i.e. one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities) has increased. In terms of physical infrastructure, this has seen the growth of the renewable energy, green construction and sustainable transportation sectors. These present new asset types that will need to be insured against natural hazards and for which little is known. For example, micro-cracking of photovoltaic panels is known to hamper the production of solar energy, and can be caused by a number of hazards (e.g. hail, strong wind) but no study has yet quantified the likelihood of this, and observational data is scarce. The aim of this project is to develop fragility and vulnerability models for key components of the green economy using mixed methods.

In the first stage of the project a specific system pertaining to the green economy will be identified from a literature review and in consultation with AXA. We will then develop a set of fragility and vulnerability functions characterizing the likelihood of damage to the asset and any contents, direct economic loss and business interruption when the asset is subjected to different natural hazards.

Due to the scarcity of observational data on the performance of green economy assets under natural hazards, a number of approaches will be explored for the vulnerability function development. These will include expert-opinion (Cooke's method) based methods and methods based on the numerical simulation of the asset under different hazards. Moreover, hybrid vulnerability functions that combine the expert-opinion or numerical functions with available claims data will be developed (claims data will be made available by AXA for this purpose). To characterize business interruption, interviews will be conducted with key providers of the green economy assets identified, and both system performance and restoration time will be analysed.

The project will in this way develop methodological advances on the state of art, as well as produce fragility and vulnerability functions for assets not modelled before. The student (Harikesan Baskaran) is perfectly suited to the project with a mechanical engineering and international development background, and some basic experience in catastrophe modelling. The student will spend time at the AXA premises and will be exposed to projects AXA are working on that are relevant to natural hazard risk. This exposure will ensure that developed research outcomes are presented in a form useable by AXA.