Disasters as Conflict Multipliers: The Case of the Beirut Blast

The Beirut blast of August 2020 was one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in modern history. It left more than 200 dead, damaged over half of the city, and pulverized its port (Human Rights Watch, 2021). Almost two years later, the specter of civil conflict continues to loom over the small Mediterranean nation as it battles with one of the top three worst economic crises since the mid-nineteenth century (World Bank, 2021). In studying the outcomes of disasters, disaster-conflict research has limited itself to a binary: disasters either create civil conflict or they promote social solidarity and cohesion. Disasters are therefore imagined as exogenous events to preexisting conflicts. This line of thinking largely neglects disaster effects on ongoing conflict structures. This project will draw on the Beirut blast as a case study to introduce three main theoretical insights into disaster-conflict research: understanding disasters as conflict multipliers that lead to more conflict outbreaks in existent conflict settings, not simply as conflict creators/inhibitors; the role of far-right groups in the instrumentalization of disaster for political ascent; and the inadvertent function of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and foreign - primarily Western- aid in contributing to post-disaster conflict. Following the initial hypothesis that intensifying vulnerabilities can aggravate existing conflict in disaster contexts, the problem this section aims to investigate is whether the inequalities in administering foreign funds by NGOs can be linked to conflict exacerbation. While this phenomenon can be said to have impacted multiple vulnerable groups, the focus of the project will be on the Shia, since they are the only one of such marginalized communities that have been involved in conflicts predating the blast. A mixed-methods framework of quantitative and qualitative methods will be adopted to support a reflexive and inductive study design. The research begins by identifying the key historical junctures that created pre-disaster vulnerabilities of two marginalized communities in Lebanon, internally displaced Shia and Syrian refugees. This will be performed through a critical review of the literature on Lebanese internal migration and Syrian refugee crisis. I will then employ a quantitative assessment of economic vulnerability before and after the Beirut blast in Beirut's marginalized neighborhoods. In addition to existing public municipal records, this data will mainly be procured through short-form surveys that will be administered to a randomized sample of Shia and Syrian residents, measuring levels of income,
unemployment, and preparedness measures.