Understanding the emergent macro-scale impacts caused by the rapid expansion of Offshore Wind within The North Sea System

The aim of this project is to find out how the expansion of offshore wind in the North Sea is and will be effecting the currently established socio-ecological system, and to decipher their potential to generate conflicts between different marine uses.

One intended project outcome is to identify and/or predict newly emergent features of the system, such as unseen effects on other marine users or the environment. Another is to be able to make Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) recommendations based on the results obtained, ultimately fostering resilience and boosting sustainability of the North Sea system.

To achieve these outcomes, socio-ecological data - which pertain here to social, economic and ecological subsystems - will at first be gathered at the local scale, along a stretch of the North East coast of England. This will be in the forms of existing monitoring data for physical and some social variables, and in stakeholder and local community interviews to understand local scale system linkages, interactions and tensions.

Features will then be applied into a conceptual model of the socio-ecological system, with changes that arise from local wind power development included, before system complexity and predictive capacity are improved by integrating in a suite of known complex systems models. The local model will then be used to inform targeted collation of macro-scale data on the physical, ecological and social environment of the North Sea. This macro-data will then be applied to the local model, before the model is ran to test its predictive ability for the North Sea socio-ecological system, by use of historical data. The model accuracy will then be improved by altering, adding, or subtracting certain linkages and agents to reflect any complexities that are not shared between the local and regional scales. The projected expansion of offshore wind energy will then be applied to the model to discover emergent system impacts, such as changes to ocean food webs, biogeochemical cycles, coastal population dynamics and how offshore wind may benefit or detriment other marine sectors such as fisheries and tourism.

The overall goal is to use these findings to have a positive influence on MSP in the North Sea.

This project aims to be truly interdisciplinary, meaning appropriate credence will be given to all aspects of the system, unlike in the majority of similar projects that tend to over-value either the economic, social or the ecological subsystems. Because of these equitable considerations, the resultant MSP recommendations would not only benefit offshore wind, but many other marine users too. Specifically, the knowledge generated from this project will be used to anticipate stakeholder conflicts in the increasingly crowded North Sea region, and suggest MSP interventions that help to control or mitigate them.

The Aura CDT will produce offshore wind specialists with a multi-disciplinary perspective, and will equip them with key skills that are essential to meet the future sector challenges. They will be highly employable due to their training being embedded in real-world challenges with the potential to become future leaders. As such, they will drive the UK forward in offshore wind development and manufacturing. They will become ambassadors for cross-disciplinary thinking in renewables and mentors to their colleagues. With its strong industrial partnership, this CDT is ideally placed to produce high impact research papers, patents and spin-outs, with support from the Universities' dedicated business development teams. All of this will contribute to the continued strong growth of the offshore wind sector in the UK, creating more jobs and added value to the UK economy. Recent estimates suggest that, to meet national energy targets, developers need >4,000 offshore wind turbines, worth £120 billion, over the next decade.

Alongside the clear benefits to the economy, this CDT will sustain and enhance the UK as a hub of expertise in this rapidly increasing area. The UK has made crucial commitments to develop low carbon energy by 2050 and this will require an estimated ~£400m UK RDI spend per year by 2032. Whilst the increase in R&D is welcome, this target will be unsustainable without the right people to support the development of alternative technologies. It is estimated that 27,000 skilled jobs, including in research, will need to be generated in the OSW sector. Of these, ~2,000 are estimated to require HE Level 7-8 qualifications. This CDT will directly answer the higher-level leadership skills shortage, enabling the UK to not only meet these targets but lead the way internationally in the renewables revolution.

Industry and policy stakeholders will benefit through-
a) Providing challenges for the students to work through which will result in solutions to pressing and long-term industry challenges
b) Knowledge exchange with the students and the academics
c) New lines of investigation/ revenue/ process improvement
d) Two-way access to skills/ equipment and training
e) A skilled, challenge focused workforce
Society will benefit through-
a) Offshore wind energy that is lower cost, more secure and more environmentally friendly, with a lower impact on precious marine eco-systems.
b) Engineers with new skillsets and perspectives that can understand environmental constraints
c) Skilled workforce who are mindful of the environmental and ethical impact
d) Graduates that understand and value equality, diversity and inclusion

The research projects undertaken by the Aura CDT students will focus on projects with a strong impact. The 6 themes have all been chosen after extensive industrial consultation and engagement that accelerated after the formation of the wider Aura initiative in 2016. The collaborative approach which has shaped this proposal will be continued and enhanced through the life of the CDT to ensure that it remains aligned to industry priorities.

The interdisciplinary nature of the OSW industry means that there are a wide range of stakeholders including large and small companies who are active at different stages of OSW farm development. These industry players will help ensure the training and experience provided in the CDT addresses the range of challenges that the industry faces.