How dietary guidelines could be used to improve coherence of food systems policies for better health and environmental outcomes

The policy mapping and coherence analysis carried out in the first Kernel at City University will be built upon, incorporating:
* Stakeholder interviews to help understand how the policies work in reality, the policy process, and pathways of influence
*Scoping of other governments/policies globally for any examples of integration of healthy diets/dietary guidelines into agriculture and trade policySpecies distribution modelling The policy analysis would be supported by modelling the impact of diet driven land use change on biodiversity. This would mean further developing e scenario that was created in Kernel 2 at University College London, in which the land use (and therefore food production) in the UK was changed through reductions in red meat, dairy, oil and sugar production and an increase in the production of fruit and vegetables.
*The development of this scenario could involve incorporating the land use for biofuels and animal feed into calculations, and potentially including variations of the scenario with land sharing versus land sparing practices.
*If possible the locations of the land use changes would be linked with areas that are most suitable for that changes, as well as areas that may be more influenced by certain policies (for example Welsh policy to encourage new horticulture businesses)Trade-off analysisThen, linking this scenario with policy coherence, the outcomes of the scenario could be compared with other targets and policies to examine which ones could also be achieved through these food supply and land use changes. For example, some of the targets which could be included are
*The NFS recommends a 30% reduction in the consumption of meat over the next 10 years
*UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommend reducing intakes of ruminant meat (beef and lamb) and dairy by 20% by 2030, and a 35% reduction by 2050.
*The CCC's Net Zero pathway also requires the release of 9% of agricultural land by 2035, and 21% by 2050.
*UK government's pledge to protect 30% of land and seas by 2030 (although the current scenario does not include sea, so would need to consider how this could be handled)
*The upcoming Environmental Act also sets out various targets on land use and biodiversity. However, this Act was recently out for public consultation, therefore final targets may vary slightly from those outlined below:
Increase total tree cover by 3% (from 14.5% to 17.5%) by 2050
Halt decline in species abundance by 2030oIncrease species abundance by 10% by 2042 compared to 2030 levels
Create or restore 500,000 hectares of a range of wildlife-rich habitat by 2042. This step could be combined with a trade-off analysis. If all targets cannot be met, different combinations of targets could be explored to assess which could be met together, what the potential co-benefits are, and the knock-on effects or unintended consequences of these decisions.