Public Expertise, Scientific Evidence, and Political Decision-making: Statistical and Public Policy Perspectives

The COVID pandemic has brought into sharper relief some of the underlying tensions that have long existed in the making of public policy. Amongst these are: the nature of expertise and its impact on policymaking processes; the appropriate role for data and evidence in decision-making; and how best to balance political imperatives in ways that mean 'good politics' will also lead to 'good policy'. Science deals in complexity, probability, and the modelling of risk. Politics relies on the projection of certainty. What happens, then, when the inherent ambiguity of scientific knowledge confronts the pragmatic realities of politics? This project will investigate that question by examining in detail how the evidence-building process for policy works within Whitehall and beyond. This is of particular importance as new technologies, such as the use of advanced statistics and machine learning, become prevalent in policy decisions. Relevant examples from current policy decisions, including the development of quantitative techniques within the project, will be central to examining such questions.