Woodland-mediated predator impacts on open ground birds

Government policies are driving UK woodland expansion, especially in the uplands. Expanding woodland
has benefits, but previous upland afforestation has impacted open ground biodiversity including waders.
Policy formulation requires improved understanding of the biodiversity trade-offs associated with
woodland expansion. The student will combine fieldwork and statistical modelling to develop predictive
models of avian biodiversity responses to woodland expansion, supplementing fieldwork with analysis
of existing long-term biodiversity datasets addressing woodland expansion.
Mechanistic understanding requires considering predation-mediated woodland edge effects from
mesopredators like foxes. Breeding failure due to predation is driving wader declines, with some species
globally threatened. Reducing predation in upland landscapes often involves culling, which is costly,
controversial and of debatable effectiveness. Recovering apex predators might discourage
mesopredator use of open upland habitats and potentially reduce wader predation, but the potential for
this to mitigate impacts of woodland expansion remains untested. The student will field-test this
concept by tracking predators and quantifying wader predation and productivity in the field. A key test
will be quantifying the distance over which predation-mediated woodland edge effects occur.
This project is topical and timely, because upland afforestation is accelerating, while waders are
declining. Understanding the mechanisms linking woodland expansion, mesopredators and waders will
help target afforestation programmes to maximise the benefits and minimise impacts on waders.