Compatibility of climate and biodiversity targets under future land use change.

Averting catastrophic climate change will require transformational societal change. A key aspect of such change will be in sectors such as agriculture and energy systems. However, there is emerging evidence ((Dunnett et al. 2022) that some options for achieving our climate ambitions risk undermining globally agreed targets relating to biodiversity and ecosystem services. It is therefore essential that future energy and agricultural systems are designed to address both the climate and ecological crisis in parallel. Doing so will require ensuring that land used to meet future energy and food demand does not impact our imperative to maintain and even increase natural ecosystems such as forests. The aim of this project is to develop and empirically test spatial models that assess the degree to which transformational change of landscapes to mitigate climate change can also achieve the protection of natural systems on which human wellbeing depends. Analysis will be conducted at both regional scale to address policy relevant questions for the UK government, and at global scale to examine compatibility between global targets relating to climate and biodiversity. Questions will be examined through the lens of international treaties (e.g UN SDGs) and their regional implementation strategies (e.g. UK 25 Year Environment Plan).