Flood futures: how are flood hazards evolving in the UK?

Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards in the UK, affecting millions of people and billions of pounds in property values per year (Evans et al, 2004). For example, the extensive winter floods that occurred during November 2015 to February 2016 cost over £5 billion, and the February 2020 floods caused severe risk to thousands of houses and businesses. There is growing concern that flood risk may become more critical across the UK since flood magnitude, frequency, and timing have experienced considerable shifts in many catchments (Blöschl et al., 2020). In some regions, flood hazards are increasing with high-magnitude floods occurring over shorter durations (i.e., becoming 'flashier').
An increasing body of work has described the "death" of flood stationarity (Milly et al., 2008), meaning that the mean, variance, or shape of a flood time series may shift over time under the effects of different drivers, such as climate change, land cover change, and changes in pre-flood conditions. There have been extensive studies on changes in flood magnitude and frequency, but research on shifts in flood flashiness remains very limited. Additionally, the relative and combined effects of these different drivers on flood changes across various catchment types are still poorly understood.
Using reliable UK national datasets and a combination of statistical analysis and machine learning models, this project aims to: 1) investigate both spatial and temporal changes in flood (with a focus on flood flashiness) across the UK using an event-based approach; 2) quantify the relative impacts of different drivers on floods across a large sample of UK catchments; 3) assess future flood risk considering the influence of key drivers in catchments with high flood risk. The expected outcome will help to understand and address the challenges imposed by climate change and urban expansion, providing scientific insights for sustainable development and flood management strategies.