Climate Change-Induced Natural Disasters and Terrorism in Civil Wars

Climate change and terrorism are widely recognised as two of the most significant contemporary
threats to international peace and security. Existing research shows that terrorism is the most
intense during active rebellions and civil wars (Belgioioso, 2018; Polo & Gonzales, 2020; Stanton,
2013) and that those nations most susceptible to armed insurrection are typically the least capable
of mitigating the effects of a natural disaster (Slettebak, 2012). However, the relationship between
climate change-induced natural disasters and terrorism in civil wars remains largely under investigated in existing academic research. With all ten of countries listed by the Global Terrorism
Database (GTD) as the most severely impacted by terror in 2022 identified as highly susceptible to
ecological crises in the coming year, the urgency of research into these increasingly severe threats
is clearly apparent (IFHV, 2022). This project sets out to address this gap in the literature by investigating the intersection of these
global security challenges. I theorise that natural disasters will lead to an intensification of terrorism
by increasing its strategic viability and decreasing its associated costs in regions already affected
by armed insurrections. However, not all areas affected by civil war and climate change-induced
natural disasters do witness increased terrorism. For example, the neighbouring Rakhine and Chin
States of northern Myanmar both bore ethno-nationalist militants before the nation was struck by
cyclone Komen in 2015, and while those in the Chin state abstained from terrorism in the months
that followed the tropical storm, the Rakhine state became a regional hotspot for terrorist violence
as militants like the Arakan Army and Harakah al-Yaqin initiated attacks across the region. This
sub-national variation warrants empirical investigation to understand the conditions under which
terrorism becomes a more attractive strategy for armed dissidents. By focusing on different contextual factors that contribute to these variations, my project will be the
first to investigate how natural disasters alter the mechanisms that influence rebel tactical choices
and lead to terrorist violence. Crucially, while the extant literature overwhelmingly focusses on the effects of natural disasters on intrastate conflict, my specific focus on extremest violence against
non-combatants will draw from research on militant radicalisation and terrorism to forge theoretical
links between these two anthropogenic threats. Moreover, by illuminating natural disasters as a
new factor in rebel tactic selection and terrorist violence I will contribute to the existing peace and
conflict studies literature with empirical evidence that quantifies the multifaceted and under researched effects of the climate emergency.