Proglacial landscape evolution with climate change across Jostedalsbreen, Norway

Glaciers and ice caps are highly sensitive to climate changes, and they will be key drivers of change for a multitude of natural and societal factors throughout the 21st century. Whilst sea-level rise will undoubtedly be one of the most severe global consequences of future climate changes, regional and local scale impacts will be mediated by subsequent changes in geomorphological and hydrological systems, and the associated societal consequences.

Ice caps differ from valley glaciers in that they cover a larger area and have a different area-altitude relationship because a large proportion of their mass is located on a high plateau with several outlet glaciers extending into adjacent valleys. Consequently, changes in the mass balance of the upper part of the ice cap can have very rapid and profound consequences for the dynamic responses of the outlet glaciers. Due to the complexity of such a glacial system, detailed knowledge of the current ice geometry and surface mass balance is required in order to understand present and future glacier changes as well as for understanding geomorphological and hydrological changes. Changes in mountain geomorphological and hydrological systems must be understood to manage water availability for hydropower, irrigation and human consumption, and glacier retreat will impact tourism and recreational activities.

Studies addressing both the physical changes in the cryosphere and the impact of such changes on the surrounding nature and society are few and often restricted to individual glaciers or certain impacts. To address this important topic on a regional scale, this project will study the largest ice mass in mainland Europe, Jostedalsbreen (c. 474 km2 in 2006) in southern Norway. The ice cap is surrounded by a variety of societal interests such as hydropower, tourism, agriculture and water supply, and with frequent natural hazards such as outburst floods, avalanches and slushflows affecting local infrastructure, business and homes.

This project will most likely be composed around three parts, each novel and publishable in its own right, but together forming a coherent and impactful thesis. The first part will consider past changes to the ice cap and its outlet glaciers, the proglacial landscape and/or the glacier-fed rivers, using extensive historical field monitoring datasets exist as well as remote sensing products for example. The second part will consider present-day processes via extensive and intensive fieldwork, which can include glaciology, geomorphology and hydrology-based methods and techniques. The third part will consider future changes to the glaciers and rivers either via novel numerical modelling, or via analysis of numerical modelling products.