A Risk Assessment Framework for Carbon Dioxide Removal Investment

Scaling Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) markets requires coordination between CDR suppliers, Emissions Trading Systems (ETS), and private capital markets. However, uncertainties in costs, policy, and long-term revenue streams create investment barriers and challenge projects' long-term viability. This research examines risk allocation in the CDR supply chain, using stakeholder insights and financial modelling to assess how risks can be distributed more effectively. A framework for allocating and quantifying risks is applied to evaluate financial exposure and identify strategies to mitigate key uncertainties. The findings aim to help shape policy and investment frameworks that support a more predictable and scalable CDR market, ultimately fostering greater private sector participation.