Integrated Development of Low-Carbon Energy Systems (IDLES): A Whole-System Paradigm for Creating a National Strategy

The long-term evolution of energy systems is set by the investment decisions of very many actors such as up-stream resource companies, power plant operators, network infrastructure providers, vehicle owners, transport system operators and building developers and occupiers. But these decisions are deliberately shaped by markets and incentives that have been designed by local and national governments to achieve policy objectives on energy, air-quality, economic growth and so on. It is clear then that government and businesses need detailed and dependable evidence of what can be achieved, what format of energy system we should aim for, what new technologies need to be encouraged, and how energy systems can form part of an industrial strategy to new goods and services. It is widely accepted that a whole-system view of energy is needed, covering not only multiple energy sectors (gas, heat, electricity and transport fuel) but also the behaviour of individuals and organisations within the energy consuming sectors such as transport and the built environment. This means that modelling energy production, delivery and use in a future integrated system is highly complex and analytically challenging. To provide evidence to government and business on what an optimised future system may look like, one has to rise to these modelling challenges. For electricity systems alone, there are established models that can optimise for security, cost and emissions given some assumptions (and sensitivities) and these have been used to provide policy and business strategy evidence. However, such models do not exist for the complex interactions of integrated systems and not at the level of fine detailed needed to expose particularly difficult operating conditions.

Our vision is to tackle the very challenging modelling required for integrated energy systems by combining multi-physics optimising techno-economic models with machine learning of human behaviour and operational models emerging multi-carrier network and conversion technologies. The direction we wish to take is clear but there are many detailed challenges along the way for which highly innovative solutions will be needed to overcome the hurdles encountered. The programme grant structure enables us to assemble an exceptional team of experts across many disciplines. There are new and exciting opportunities, for instance, to apply machine learning to identify in a quantitative way models of consumer behaviour and responsiveness to incentives that can help explore demand-side flexibility within an integrated energy system.

We have engaged four major partners from complementary sectors of the energy system that will support the programme with significant funding (approximately 35% additional funding) and more importantly engage with us and each other to share insights, challenges, data and case studies. EDF Energy provide the perspective on an energy retail business and access to smart meter trail data. Shell provide insights into the future fuels to be used in transport and building services. National Grid (System Operator) give the perspective of the use of flexibility and new service propositions for efficient system operations. ABB are a provider of data acquisition and control systems and provide industrial perspective of decentralisation of control. ABB have committed to providing substantial equipment and resource to build a verification and demonstration facility for decentralised control. We are also engaging examples of the new entrants, often smaller companies with potentially disruptive technologies and business models, who will engage and share some of their insights.

The use of a whole-system, or integrated, paradigm for the planning and operation of the UK's future energy systems has potential for very large savings in the cost of providing decarbonised energy and potential to bring forward new hardware and data technologies for the realisation of such systems. So, on top of disseminating high quality research findings to the research community we will pursue engagement with industrial and other partners to create societal, policy and industrial impact.

The powerful set of new tools and methods for integrated energy system design and analysis will be used to create policy-relevant evidence to bodies such as the National Infrastructure Commission, BIES, Ofgem and local authorities on the opportunity to make investment in energy infrastructure through smart and system-wide optimisation. There will also be detailed conclusions on the efficacy of various market designs and interventions to deliver the investment needed. We have projects within the programme aimed specifically at comparative analysis of incremental versus integrated development and at the design of markets and incentives. We will invite BEIS and GLA representation onto our steering group to obtain their guidance on achieving policy impact and we will disseminate through briefings, workshops and formal submissions of policy evidence.

We will also identify the "system value" and the use-cases for key energy technologies that integrating across energy carriers and/or provide flexibility in operation and control. This is relevant to individual companies and is valuable evidence to shape the UK's Industrial Strategy in the pursuit of new and expanded business opportunities. Our findings in this area will be propagated through a series of workshops with stakeholders and the creation of roadmaps for emerging technologies and business innovations. The roadmaps will be published as Energy Futures Lab briefing papers and promoted through our launch events and news feeds. The newly separated System Operator function within National Grid has a direct interest, on behalf of the whole system, of identifying the control and operational functions to secure the future energy system and they are a further delivery partner here.

We will work with our project partners to exploit the technology opportunities. We have secured four major project partners at this time (ABB, EDF Energy, National Grid and Shell) and are gathering examples of SMEs with disruptive technologies. As well as providing direct support for the programme, our partners will provide insights and support for moving to demonstration of innovations in business models, data/control services and asset technologies. We have already identified with ABB the need to demonstrate and verify decentralised control in a real-time environment and have agreed to work together to construct such a facility.

We foresee a major opportunity in new approaches for using demand modelling to offer new service propositions to consumers. EDF Energy is our partner in the energy retail sector and we will work with them, and through them with the Energy System Catapult, with SME partners and Ofgem to promote these opportunities. With Shell, we will work to disseminate the role of alternative fuels in heat and transport.

The fundamental research in system-of-systems modelling, in demand modelling and in will be published in journals to create academic impact. We have deliberately included Early Career Researchers among our investigator team and assigned roles that will help develop their careers through leadership opportunities. We believe that the team of post-doctoral researchers working on this challenging cross-disciplinary set of problems will be a remarkable pool of talent of the UK.