Cross Disciplinary Feasibility Account: Warwick Centre for Fusion Space and Astrophysics.
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Warwick
Department Name: Physics
Abstract
A central idea that we wish to pursue is the dynamic response of real world complex systems to 'shock or surprise'. Both the brain and financial systems (meaning markets, individual companies or sectors), are functionally comprised of many interacting elements which propagate and process information. A highly topical question is whether it is possible to quantify from available data when the response of a system to a 'shock' will be within normal bounds (normal response time to a neurological test task, a fluctuation in price) or will be highly correlated and catastrophic (a seizure, a stock market crash or company failure). Understanding this would lead to paradigm shifting insights into both brain function and financial system dynamics. Researchers within Warwick's interdisciplinary EPSRC and STFC funded Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics (CFSA) have pioneered techniques to analyse 'real world' data from laboratory experiments for Magnetic Confinement Fusion and from astrophysical plasmas. These plasma systems can exhibit rather unpredictable 'bursty' behaviour and can self organise, that is, show large scale transitions from disordered to highly ordered, correlated behaviour. We propose to apply these ideas to focus on two cross-disciplinary 'grand challenges': brain function, and market dynamics, as captured by Magnetoencephalography (MEG) measurements of the brain, and by financial and other company data. This implies a high degree of cross- disciplinary working, between plasma physicists within CFSA, Warwick, neurologists within the MRC Cognition & Brain Sciences Unit, Cambridge, and strategists within the Warwick Business School.In the framework of the physical sciences there is a direct and well understood mapping between quantifying such systems and modelling them. An open question that we will address is how such a mapping can be rigorously and usefully applied in the wider context. By building bridges between traditionally segregated disciplines (neuroscience, econometrics and plasma physics) we can tackle substantive interdisciplinary questions, for example, in what sense is a market crash like an epileptic seizure in the brain? Addressing such questions in a quantitative and predictive manner has the potential for far reaching impact in both clinical neuroscience and econometrics. This radical approach will enable physical models to be extended beyond their now mature application to contribute, and perhaps create, a far broader interface with the wider social sciences.
Planned Impact
The nature of the work being undertaken is highly speculative but has potential for far reaching impact. Clearly, any advance in our understanding of the response of financial markets and systems to 'shocks', or a diagnostic of neurological health based on non-invasive MEG technology will have the potential to make significant contributions to EPSRC's priority themes of security of energy supply and living with environmental change, and next generation healthcare. Who will benefit from the research and how will they benefit from this research? Development of new quantitative tools to assess how brain systems process information in healthy and disordered states will be of considerable interest to clinical neuroscience and psychiatry. Ultimately, quantitative insights into how MEG data relate to human brain function would lead to methods to diagnose cognitive function and disorders, with particular application to epilepsy and schizophrenia. The economic and social costs of brain disorders associated with impaired cognitive function and poor occupational performance are substantial. The annual costs of schizophrenia alone are estimated to be in the order of 7bn annually in the UK, of which about 2bn is due to direct healthcare costs. In tackling these disorders therapeutically, a key objective is to develop better models for how distributed brain systems normally process information and how pathological disruption of these systems can lead to impairment. The development of quantitative approaches to MEG that we propose would ensure that full scientific value is obtained from the major recent investments in neuroimaging infrastructure and it will potentially provide new diagnostic and predictive biomarkers of cognitive impairment that could be used to improve patient care and to support development of new pro-cognitive drugs. The importance of the proposed research from this perspective is that it includes data on well-established cognitive testing paradigms in healthy volunteers and people with schizophrenia. This means that the results will be immediately of interest to academic and industrial neuroscientists with potential for major impact on how cognitive disorders are understood theoretically and approached therapeutically. Quantifying the likely impact of news or events on markets and companies again has clear application to their monitoring and management. The current instability has cost some 475bn globally according to the IMF. Clearly any successful mitigation techniques would be valuable to business strategists and organisations from single investors to Governments (eg Risk Analysts, Company Director mentors, Financial strategists and Central Banks). There is also potentially a significant feedback to plasma physics based challenges in particular space weather applications and to understanding enhanced confinement modes of MCF with relevance to ITER operating regimes. What will be done to ensure that they benefit from this research? Cognitive researchers are typically also practicing clinicians, and business strategists in academia work closely with companies. Results and ideas flowing from this research would therefore quickly flow into potential applications where appropriate. We will also present and promote our results more formally at workshops open to practicing clinicians and to practicing business strategists. We will engage the wider community and press where appropriate. Warwick Ventures have a strategy and procedure in place to effect licensing and dissemination to the wider business community. There is also direct benefit to the training of young researchers and enhancement of interdisciplinary activity. We will provide training and introduction to patents, licensing and spin- out companies to the researchers supported on this grant.
Organisations
Publications
Hornsby W
(2010)
On the nonlinear coupling between micro turbulence and mesoscale magnetic islands in a plasma
in EPL (Europhysics Letters)
Grinenko A
(2009)
One-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of high energy density experiments
in Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A: Accelerators, Spectrometers, Detectors and Associated Equipment
Chapman B
(2020)
Origin of ion cyclotron emission at the proton cyclotron frequency from the core of deuterium plasmas in the ASDEX-Upgrade tokamak
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Nakariakov V
(2010)
Oscillatory processes in solar flares
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
McIntosh S
(2020)
Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude
in Solar Physics
Meyer H
(2009)
Overview of physics results from MAST
in Nuclear Fusion
Lloyd B
(2011)
Overview of physics results from MAST
in Nuclear Fusion
Meyer H
(2017)
Overview of progress in European medium sized tokamaks towards an integrated plasma-edge/wall solution a
in Nuclear Fusion
Kirk A
(2017)
Overview of recent physics results from MAST
in Nuclear Fusion
Romanelli F
(2015)
Overview of the JET results
in Nuclear Fusion
Litaudon X
(2017)
Overview of the JET results in support to ITER
in Nuclear Fusion
Peeters A
(2011)
Overview of toroidal momentum transport
in Nuclear Fusion
McClements K
(2018)
Particle acceleration during merging-compression plasma start-up in the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Cook J
(2009)
Particle-in-cell simulations of the emission mechanism for fusion product-driven ion cyclotron emission from tokamak plasmas
in 36th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics 2009, EPS 2009 - Europhysics Conference Abstracts
Cook J
(2013)
Particle-in-cell simulations of the magnetoacoustic cyclotron instability of fusion-born alpha-particles in tokamak plasmas
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Chorley N
(2011)
Period persistence of long period oscillations in sunspots
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Rekaa V
(2013)
Perpendicular shock reformation and multi-ion species acceleration in astrophysical plasmas
in 40th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics, EPS 2013
Gingell P
(2014)
Plasma blob formation by ion kinetic Kelvin-Helmholtz and interchange instabilities
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Gingell P
(2013)
Plasma heating by ion gyro-scale blobs in the kinetic and fluid regimes
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Vasheghani Farahani S
(2009)
Propagating transverse waves in soft X-ray coronal jets
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Nakariakov V
(2019)
Properties of Slow Magnetoacoustic Oscillations of Solar Coronal Loops by Multi-instrumental Observations
in The Astrophysical Journal
Osman KT
(2013)
Proton kinetic effects and turbulent energy cascade rate in the solar wind.
in Physical review letters
Servidio S
(2014)
PROTON KINETIC EFFECTS IN VLASOV AND SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE
in The Astrophysical Journal
KIYANI K
(2009)
Pseudononstationarity in the scaling exponents of finite-interval time series.
in Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys
Carbajal L
(2017)
Quantifying Fusion Born Ion Populations in Magnetically Confined Plasmas using Ion Cyclotron Emission.
in Physical review letters
Nicol R
(2009)
QUANTIFYING THE ANISOTROPY AND SOLAR CYCLE DEPENDENCE OF "1/ f " SOLAR WIND FLUCTUATIONS OBSERVED BY ADVANCED COMPOSITION EXPLORER
in The Astrophysical Journal
Chapman S
(2020)
Quantifying the Solar Cycle Modulation of Extreme Space Weather
in Geophysical Research Letters
Nakariakov V
(2009)
Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar Flares
in Space Science Reviews
Nakariakov V
(2010)
QUASI-PERIODIC PULSATIONS IN THE GAMMA-RAY EMISSION OF A SOLAR FLARE
in The Astrophysical Journal
Blanken T
(2019)
Real-time plasma state monitoring and supervisory control on TCV
in Nuclear Fusion
Sych R
(2009)
Relationship between wave processes in sunspots and quasi-periodic pulsations in active region flares
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Chapman S
(2014)
Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET
in Physics of Plasmas
Foullon C
(2009)
Reply to comment by H. Hasegawa on "Evolution of Kelvin-Helmholtz activity on the dusk flank magnetopause"
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Chapman S
(2018)
Reproducible Aspects of the Climate of Space Weather Over the Last Five Solar Cycles
in Space Weather
Kirk A
(2010)
Resonant magnetic perturbation experiments on MAST using external and internal coils for ELM control
in Nuclear Fusion
Leamon R
(2021)
Response to "Limitations in the Hilbert Transform Approach to Locating Solar Cycle Terminators" by R. Booth
in Solar Physics
Hush P
(2015)
Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE
in Geophysical Research Letters
Zhu H
(2013)
Robustness of predator-prey models for confinement regime transitions in fusion plasmas
in Physics of Plasmas
Zhu H
(2013)
Robustness of predator-prey models for confinement transitions in tokamak plasmas
in 40th EPS Conference on Plasma Physics, EPS 2013
Smith H
(2009)
Runaway electron generation in tokamak disruptions
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Nakariakov V
(2012)
SAUSAGE OSCILLATIONS OF CORONAL PLASMA STRUCTURES
in The Astrophysical Journal
Pugh C
(2019)
Scaling laws of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar flares
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Kolotkov D
(2020)
Seismological constraints on the solar coronal heating function
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Verwichte E
(2009)
SEISMOLOGY OF A LARGE SOLAR CORONAL LOOP FROM EUVI/ STEREO OBSERVATIONS OF ITS TRANSVERSE OSCILLATION
in The Astrophysical Journal
Lai W
(2013)
Self-consistent nonlinear kinetic simulations of the anomalous Doppler instability of suprathermal electrons in plasmas
in Physics of Plasmas
Chin R
(2010)
Self-organization of magnetoacoustic waves in a thermally unstable environment
in Physics of Plasmas
Srivastava A
(2013)
Simulation of the observed coronal kink instability and its implications for the SDO/AIA
in Advances in Space Research
Gruszecki M
(2011)
Slow magnetacoustic waves in magnetic arcades
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Kim S
(2012)
SLOW MAGNETOACOUSTIC OSCILLATIONS IN THE MICROWAVE EMISSION OF SOLAR FLARES
in The Astrophysical Journal
Description | please see the relevant research papers |
Exploitation Route | please see the relevant research papers and grants |
Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare |
Description | please see the relevant research papers |
First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
Sector | Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy |
Impact Types | Economic |
Description | AFOSR |
Amount | $100,000 (USD) |
Funding ID | FA9550-17-1-0054 |
Organisation | Airforce Office of Scientific Research |
Sector | Public |
Country | United States |
Start | 03/2017 |
End | 03/2018 |
Description | Fulbright-Lloyd's of London Scholarship 2017/18 |
Amount | $60,000 (USD) |
Organisation | US-UK Fulbright Commission |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2017 |
End | 09/2018 |
Description | NORKLIMA |
Amount | krĀ 900,000 (NOK) |
Organisation | Research Council of Norway |
Sector | Public |
Country | Norway |
Start | 01/2014 |
End | 01/2016 |
Description | Newton-CONICYT |
Amount | $1,438,000 (CLP) |
Organisation | Newton Fund |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2015 |
End | 10/2016 |