Cross Disciplinary Feasibility Account: Warwick Centre for Fusion Space and Astrophysics.
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Warwick
Department Name: Physics
Abstract
A central idea that we wish to pursue is the dynamic response of real world complex systems to 'shock or surprise'. Both the brain and financial systems (meaning markets, individual companies or sectors), are functionally comprised of many interacting elements which propagate and process information. A highly topical question is whether it is possible to quantify from available data when the response of a system to a 'shock' will be within normal bounds (normal response time to a neurological test task, a fluctuation in price) or will be highly correlated and catastrophic (a seizure, a stock market crash or company failure). Understanding this would lead to paradigm shifting insights into both brain function and financial system dynamics. Researchers within Warwick's interdisciplinary EPSRC and STFC funded Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics (CFSA) have pioneered techniques to analyse 'real world' data from laboratory experiments for Magnetic Confinement Fusion and from astrophysical plasmas. These plasma systems can exhibit rather unpredictable 'bursty' behaviour and can self organise, that is, show large scale transitions from disordered to highly ordered, correlated behaviour. We propose to apply these ideas to focus on two cross-disciplinary 'grand challenges': brain function, and market dynamics, as captured by Magnetoencephalography (MEG) measurements of the brain, and by financial and other company data. This implies a high degree of cross- disciplinary working, between plasma physicists within CFSA, Warwick, neurologists within the MRC Cognition & Brain Sciences Unit, Cambridge, and strategists within the Warwick Business School.In the framework of the physical sciences there is a direct and well understood mapping between quantifying such systems and modelling them. An open question that we will address is how such a mapping can be rigorously and usefully applied in the wider context. By building bridges between traditionally segregated disciplines (neuroscience, econometrics and plasma physics) we can tackle substantive interdisciplinary questions, for example, in what sense is a market crash like an epileptic seizure in the brain? Addressing such questions in a quantitative and predictive manner has the potential for far reaching impact in both clinical neuroscience and econometrics. This radical approach will enable physical models to be extended beyond their now mature application to contribute, and perhaps create, a far broader interface with the wider social sciences.
Planned Impact
The nature of the work being undertaken is highly speculative but has potential for far reaching impact. Clearly, any advance in our understanding of the response of financial markets and systems to 'shocks', or a diagnostic of neurological health based on non-invasive MEG technology will have the potential to make significant contributions to EPSRC's priority themes of security of energy supply and living with environmental change, and next generation healthcare. Who will benefit from the research and how will they benefit from this research? Development of new quantitative tools to assess how brain systems process information in healthy and disordered states will be of considerable interest to clinical neuroscience and psychiatry. Ultimately, quantitative insights into how MEG data relate to human brain function would lead to methods to diagnose cognitive function and disorders, with particular application to epilepsy and schizophrenia. The economic and social costs of brain disorders associated with impaired cognitive function and poor occupational performance are substantial. The annual costs of schizophrenia alone are estimated to be in the order of 7bn annually in the UK, of which about 2bn is due to direct healthcare costs. In tackling these disorders therapeutically, a key objective is to develop better models for how distributed brain systems normally process information and how pathological disruption of these systems can lead to impairment. The development of quantitative approaches to MEG that we propose would ensure that full scientific value is obtained from the major recent investments in neuroimaging infrastructure and it will potentially provide new diagnostic and predictive biomarkers of cognitive impairment that could be used to improve patient care and to support development of new pro-cognitive drugs. The importance of the proposed research from this perspective is that it includes data on well-established cognitive testing paradigms in healthy volunteers and people with schizophrenia. This means that the results will be immediately of interest to academic and industrial neuroscientists with potential for major impact on how cognitive disorders are understood theoretically and approached therapeutically. Quantifying the likely impact of news or events on markets and companies again has clear application to their monitoring and management. The current instability has cost some 475bn globally according to the IMF. Clearly any successful mitigation techniques would be valuable to business strategists and organisations from single investors to Governments (eg Risk Analysts, Company Director mentors, Financial strategists and Central Banks). There is also potentially a significant feedback to plasma physics based challenges in particular space weather applications and to understanding enhanced confinement modes of MCF with relevance to ITER operating regimes. What will be done to ensure that they benefit from this research? Cognitive researchers are typically also practicing clinicians, and business strategists in academia work closely with companies. Results and ideas flowing from this research would therefore quickly flow into potential applications where appropriate. We will also present and promote our results more formally at workshops open to practicing clinicians and to practicing business strategists. We will engage the wider community and press where appropriate. Warwick Ventures have a strategy and procedure in place to effect licensing and dissemination to the wider business community. There is also direct benefit to the training of young researchers and enhancement of interdisciplinary activity. We will provide training and introduction to patents, licensing and spin- out companies to the researchers supported on this grant.
Organisations
Publications
Connor J
(2009)
13th EU-US Transport Task Force Workshop on transport in fusion plasmas
in Nuclear Fusion
Watkins N
(2015)
25 Years of Self-organized Criticality: Concepts and Controversies
in Space Science Reviews
Broomhall A
(2019)
A Blueprint of State-of-the-art Techniques for Detecting Quasi-periodic Pulsations in Solar and Stellar Flares
in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series
Chapman S
(2020)
A clock for solar and geomagnetic activity
Hornsby W
(2010)
A code to solve the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equation applied to particle transport in magnetic turbulence
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Bergin A
(2020)
A E , D S T , and Their SuperMAG Counterparts: The Effect of Improved Spatial Resolution in Geomagnetic Indices
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Zhu H
(2015)
A quantitative model for heat pulse propagation across large helical device plasmas
in Physics of Plasmas
Poli FM
(2009)
A robust method for measurement of fluctuation parallel wavenumber in laboratory plasmas.
in The Review of scientific instruments
McMillan B
(2016)
A very general electromagnetic gyrokinetic formalism
in Physics of Plasmas
Chapman S.C.
(2014)
An apparent relation between ELM occurrence times and the prior phase
in 41st EPS Conference on Plasma Physics
Brady C
(2011)
An ion acceleration mechanism in laser illuminated targets with internal electron density structure
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Tardini G
(2009)
Angular momentum studies with NBI modulation in JET
in Nuclear Fusion
Osman K
(2014)
ANISOTROPIC INTERMITTENCY OF MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC TURBULENCE
in The Astrophysical Journal
Casson F
(2009)
Anomalous parallel momentum transport due to E×B flow shear in a tokamak plasma
in Physics of Plasmas
White R
(2013)
ANTI-PHASE SIGNATURE OF FLARE GENERATED TRANSVERSE LOOP OSCILLATIONS
in The Astrophysical Journal
Chapman S
(2009)
Avalanching systems under intermediate driving rate
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Poli E
(2009)
Behaviour of turbulent transport in the vicinity of a magnetic island
in Nuclear Fusion
Inglis A
(2009)
Characteristics of magnetoacoustic sausage modes
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Dods J
(2017)
Characterizing the ionospheric current pattern response to southward and northward IMF turnings with dynamical SuperMAG correlation networks
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
Botha G
(2011)
CHROMOSPHERIC RESONANCES ABOVE SUNSPOT UMBRAE
in The Astrophysical Journal
Karimabadi H
(2013)
Coherent structures, intermittent turbulence, and dissipation in high-temperature plasmas
in Physics of Plasmas
WATKINS N
(2009)
Comment on "coexistence of self-organized criticality and intermittent turbulence in the solar corona".
in Phys Rev Lett
Peeters A
(2009)
Comment on "Turbulent equipartition theory of toroidal momentum pinch" [Phys. Plasmas 15, 055902 (2008)]
in Physics of Plasmas
Chapman B
(2020)
Comparing theory and simulation of ion cyclotron emission from energetic ion populations with spherical shell and ring-beam distributions in velocity-space
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Smith H
(2009)
Compressional Alfvén eigenmode structure in spherical tokamaks
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Chapman S
(2018)
Control system-plasma synchronization and naturally occurring edge localized modes in a tokamak
in Physics of Plasmas
Ochoukov R
(2019)
Core plasma ion cyclotron emission driven by fusion-born ions
in Nuclear Fusion
Verwichte E
(2013)
CORONAL ALFVÉN SPEED DETERMINATION: CONSISTENCY BETWEEN SEISMOLOGY USING AIA/ SDO TRANSVERSE LOOP OSCILLATIONS AND MAGNETIC EXTRAPOLATION
in The Astrophysical Journal
Reid J
(2020)
Coronal energy release by MHD avalanches: Heating mechanisms
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Andries J
(2009)
Coronal Seismology by Means of Kink Oscillation Overtones
in Space Science Reviews
Stepanov AV, Zaitsev VV, Nakariakov, VM
(2012)
Coronal Seismology: Waves and Oscillations in Stellar Coronae
Hershaw J
(2011)
Damped large amplitude transverse oscillations in an EUV solar prominence, triggered by large-scale transient coronal waves
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Anfinogentov S
(2013)
Decay-less kink oscillations in coronal loops
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Nisticò G
(2013)
Decaying and decayless transverse oscillations of a coronal loop
in Astronomy & Astrophysics
Ridgers CP
(2012)
Dense electron-positron plasmas and ultraintense ? rays from laser-irradiated solids.
in Physical review letters
Jackman J
(2019)
Detection of a giant flare displaying quasi-periodic pulsations from a pre-main-sequence M star by the Next Generation Transit Survey
in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Meyrand R
(2016)
Direct Evidence of the Transition from Weak to Strong Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence.
in Physical review letters
Orr L
(2019)
Directed Network of Substorms Using SuperMAG Ground-Based Magnetometer Data
in Geophysical Research Letters
Kiyani K
(2015)
Dissipation and heating in solar wind turbulence: from the macro to the micro and back again
in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Vorberger J
(2012)
Dynamic ion structure factor of warm dense matter.
in Physical review letters
Nardon E
(2009)
Edge localized mode control experiments on MAST using resonant magnetic perturbations from in-vessel coils
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Tamain P
(2010)
Edge turbulence and flows in the presence of resonant magnetic perturbations on MAST
in Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion
Guttenfelder W
(2009)
Edge turbulence measurements in electron-heated Helically Symmetric Experiment plasmas
in Physics of Plasmas
Kazakov Y
(2017)
Efficient generation of energetic ions in multi-ion plasmas by radio-frequency heating
in Nature Physics
Cook JW
(2010)
Electron current drive by fusion-product-excited lower hybrid drift instability.
in Physical review letters
Freethy SJ
(2015)
Electron kinetics inferred from observations of microwave bursts during edge localized modes in the mega-amp spherical tokamak.
in Physical review letters
Perona A
(2010)
Electron response to collisionless magnetic reconnection
in Physics of Plasmas
Tsironis C
(2009)
Electron-cyclotron wave scattering by edge density fluctuations in ITER
in Physics of Plasmas
Description | please see the relevant research papers |
Exploitation Route | please see the relevant research papers and grants |
Sectors | Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare |
Description | please see the relevant research papers |
First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
Sector | Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy |
Impact Types | Economic |
Description | AFOSR |
Amount | $100,000 (USD) |
Funding ID | FA9550-17-1-0054 |
Organisation | Airforce Office of Scientific Research |
Sector | Public |
Country | United States |
Start | 03/2017 |
End | 03/2018 |
Description | Fulbright-Lloyd's of London Scholarship 2017/18 |
Amount | $60,000 (USD) |
Organisation | US-UK Fulbright Commission |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 10/2017 |
End | 09/2018 |
Description | NORKLIMA |
Amount | kr 900,000 (NOK) |
Organisation | Research Council of Norway |
Sector | Public |
Country | Norway |
Start | 01/2014 |
End | 01/2016 |
Description | Newton-CONICYT |
Amount | $1,438,000 (CLP) |
Organisation | Newton Fund |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2015 |
End | 10/2016 |