Voters and the British Political System in the Context of Brexit: the British Election Study 2019-2023
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Manchester
Department Name: Social Sciences
Abstract
The British electorate has become more volatile in recent decades. This volatile environment has allowed recent political shocks and events to bring about a period of rapid and dramatic political change. In 2015 we witnessed fragmentation of party support with the collapse of the Liberal Democrats and the rise of smaller and newer parties such as UKIP, the Greens, and the SNP. In 2017, following the Brexit vote, this was reversed, with a surge in support for the Conservatives and Labour, with many voters choosing on the basis of their attitudes towards Europe and immigration. Whatever form Brexit eventually takes, it will have huge electoral consequences and the next five years are likely to see further shifts in the electoral landscape. The British Election Study will be designed to provide a deep and theoretically informed understanding of those changes. We are proposing a study that maximizes the understanding of the immediate electoral and political consequences of Brexit - both for academic and non-academic beneficiaries.
Our proposed project will achieve this by collecting high quality survey data for the research community, a broad array of the most relevant and timely questions, and a clear dissemination and impact plan. We will also achieve this by carrying out a program of theoretically informed research linking long-term trends in electoral volatility and contemporary political events. The project will benefit from a high level of continuity with the 2014-2019 BES (and historical BES studies) in terms of methodological and theoretical approach and a substantial degree of innovation, keeping the BES at the forefront of national election studies globally.
The BES will consist of two core components: a post-election cross-sectional nationally representative sample survey of citizens; and an internet panel. The content of these surveys will be organised around the themes of accountability, representation and support for the political system. The surveys will allow users to understand and demonstrate how these key areas of democracy are affected by Brexit. The study will be designed to allow investigation of geographical and social variation in representation, accountability and system support. By maximising the extent of comparability with past studies it will also make it possible to compare voter behaviour and attitudes across successive election studies. Similarly the BES will help researchers to understand the role of national context by ensuring comparability between Britain and other countries. The inter-election panel will provide a platform for analysing the drivers of individual-level change and will include questions designed by and for the user community. Users will be able to investigate the impact of the election campaign using our daily sample of voters. We will also make it possible to link data from other sources including other surveys. We will work with the Social Science One Consortium to enable researchers to link Facebook data to BES respondents anonymously and securely which will allow users to combine BES survey responses with behavioural social media data.
We will set aside 15% of the Internet Panel as an Innovation Module (split into four parts). We will use this space for user-created modules that are relevant to both the users' research agendas and the wider user community. This survey space will also allow the BES team to trial new items and adapt items from other studies for comparability and relevance to ongoing debates in the literature.
Our custom designed BES website will provide easy access to data and stories arising from the BES. A program of consultation, events and media engagement will ensure that the study enhances public awareness and understanding of electoral politics, and assist academic and non-academic researchers in their own work.
Our proposed project will achieve this by collecting high quality survey data for the research community, a broad array of the most relevant and timely questions, and a clear dissemination and impact plan. We will also achieve this by carrying out a program of theoretically informed research linking long-term trends in electoral volatility and contemporary political events. The project will benefit from a high level of continuity with the 2014-2019 BES (and historical BES studies) in terms of methodological and theoretical approach and a substantial degree of innovation, keeping the BES at the forefront of national election studies globally.
The BES will consist of two core components: a post-election cross-sectional nationally representative sample survey of citizens; and an internet panel. The content of these surveys will be organised around the themes of accountability, representation and support for the political system. The surveys will allow users to understand and demonstrate how these key areas of democracy are affected by Brexit. The study will be designed to allow investigation of geographical and social variation in representation, accountability and system support. By maximising the extent of comparability with past studies it will also make it possible to compare voter behaviour and attitudes across successive election studies. Similarly the BES will help researchers to understand the role of national context by ensuring comparability between Britain and other countries. The inter-election panel will provide a platform for analysing the drivers of individual-level change and will include questions designed by and for the user community. Users will be able to investigate the impact of the election campaign using our daily sample of voters. We will also make it possible to link data from other sources including other surveys. We will work with the Social Science One Consortium to enable researchers to link Facebook data to BES respondents anonymously and securely which will allow users to combine BES survey responses with behavioural social media data.
We will set aside 15% of the Internet Panel as an Innovation Module (split into four parts). We will use this space for user-created modules that are relevant to both the users' research agendas and the wider user community. This survey space will also allow the BES team to trial new items and adapt items from other studies for comparability and relevance to ongoing debates in the literature.
Our custom designed BES website will provide easy access to data and stories arising from the BES. A program of consultation, events and media engagement will ensure that the study enhances public awareness and understanding of electoral politics, and assist academic and non-academic researchers in their own work.
Planned Impact
The impact of the BES has risen significantly in recent years. Building on the authority of the BES as a reliable source of non-partisan information about British elections and voters amongst non-academic audiences, the next BES will continue and enhance public and political understanding of uncertainty, volatility, and in particular the political consequences of Brexit.
Journalists benefit from BES data and analysis, providing accurate news content, background briefings, and a dataset that is used widely in print and broadcast reporting. Our events will disseminate research findings and consult on novel and timely survey questions; our website will disseminate high-impact findings; and the BES Data Playground will make more data available for journalists to use. BES investigators will continue to produce research for BBC online, ITV News, and other broadcasters, as well as print media. BES data is used throughout the night for BBC election programming and is an integral part of ITV News election coverage, with live analysis and BES-based data dissemination commentary. This is achieved - especially with ITV - by long-term planning and very close collaboration. A BES documentary is being explored currently with another broadcaster. Furthermore, by partnering with Social Science One (via the Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University), BES data linking to Facebook data, and separately with twitter data, will provide useful analysis for global social media platforms, as well as benefiting social media journalists.
Political parties and campaigning organisations benefit from BES data and analysis, informing party campaigns, the understanding of election outcomes and major changes between elections. This will be achieved by regular one-to-one meetings, events, ongoing dissemination on the BES website, and via the media. This impact also extends to government departments, especially where concerned with civic engagement and participation. Our experience of giving testimony to House of Commons and Lords Committees is very likely to be repeated in the future.
The BES will partner with the Electoral Commission to ensure rigorous understanding of electoral participation, political campaign effects and electoral processes. This informs understanding, policy and also practice, as relevant. We will also invite partnerships with other independent organisations, as we have previously with the Hansard Society and the Committee for the Protection of Standards in Public Life, and through providing insight and analysis for publications and seminars organised by a variety of think tanks. This leads to public understanding of British elections and political attitudes.
BES data plays an essential role underpinning the British polling industry which benefits from BES data in two ways. First, it informs understanding of the relationships between key variables and political choice and turnout, and the reasons for recent polling misses. Second, the BES post-election surveys play an essential behind-the-scenes role in providing the weighting targets for the industry.
Finally, it is our view that - without the BES - the public would not be served by a non-partisan, transparent, freely available, high quality survey and analysis. Information is a key part of the democratic process. BES data and analysis provides a check on political claims (e.g. one political party is supported by one group or another), whether one party is likely to breakthrough in an upcoming election. It helps people better understand whether they can and should trust opinion polls, and explains how fellow citizens have contributed to election outcomes. In the forthcoming political period, this could not be more important. In an era of political volatility and contested truths, BES data will serve public understanding and accountability as a valuable part of the political process.
Journalists benefit from BES data and analysis, providing accurate news content, background briefings, and a dataset that is used widely in print and broadcast reporting. Our events will disseminate research findings and consult on novel and timely survey questions; our website will disseminate high-impact findings; and the BES Data Playground will make more data available for journalists to use. BES investigators will continue to produce research for BBC online, ITV News, and other broadcasters, as well as print media. BES data is used throughout the night for BBC election programming and is an integral part of ITV News election coverage, with live analysis and BES-based data dissemination commentary. This is achieved - especially with ITV - by long-term planning and very close collaboration. A BES documentary is being explored currently with another broadcaster. Furthermore, by partnering with Social Science One (via the Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University), BES data linking to Facebook data, and separately with twitter data, will provide useful analysis for global social media platforms, as well as benefiting social media journalists.
Political parties and campaigning organisations benefit from BES data and analysis, informing party campaigns, the understanding of election outcomes and major changes between elections. This will be achieved by regular one-to-one meetings, events, ongoing dissemination on the BES website, and via the media. This impact also extends to government departments, especially where concerned with civic engagement and participation. Our experience of giving testimony to House of Commons and Lords Committees is very likely to be repeated in the future.
The BES will partner with the Electoral Commission to ensure rigorous understanding of electoral participation, political campaign effects and electoral processes. This informs understanding, policy and also practice, as relevant. We will also invite partnerships with other independent organisations, as we have previously with the Hansard Society and the Committee for the Protection of Standards in Public Life, and through providing insight and analysis for publications and seminars organised by a variety of think tanks. This leads to public understanding of British elections and political attitudes.
BES data plays an essential role underpinning the British polling industry which benefits from BES data in two ways. First, it informs understanding of the relationships between key variables and political choice and turnout, and the reasons for recent polling misses. Second, the BES post-election surveys play an essential behind-the-scenes role in providing the weighting targets for the industry.
Finally, it is our view that - without the BES - the public would not be served by a non-partisan, transparent, freely available, high quality survey and analysis. Information is a key part of the democratic process. BES data and analysis provides a check on political claims (e.g. one political party is supported by one group or another), whether one party is likely to breakthrough in an upcoming election. It helps people better understand whether they can and should trust opinion polls, and explains how fellow citizens have contributed to election outcomes. In the forthcoming political period, this could not be more important. In an era of political volatility and contested truths, BES data will serve public understanding and accountability as a valuable part of the political process.
Publications

De Geus R
(2021)
Attention! The meanings of attention to politics in surveys
in Electoral Studies

Evans G
(2021)
Boris Johnson to the Rescue? How the Conservatives Won the Radical-Right Vote in the 2019 General Election
in Political Studies

Fieldhouse E
(2020)
Do as I Say or Do as I Do? How Social Relationships Shape the Impact of Descriptive and Injunctive Norms of Voting
in British Journal of Political Science

Fieldhouse E
(2021)
Volatility, Realignment and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019
in SSRN Electronic Journal

Green J
(2021)
Who Gets What: The Economy, Relative Gains and Brexit
in British Journal of Political Science


Mellon J
(2021)
How Do Coronavirus Attitudes Fit into Britain's Ideological Landscape?
in Parliamentary Affairs

Mellon J
(2021)
What drives electoral change? Evidence from 103 inter-election panel surveys in 18 countries
in SSRN Electronic Journal

Mellon J
(2020)
Tactical Voting and Electoral Pacts in the 2019 UK General Election
in SSRN Electronic Journal

Prosser C
(2020)
The end of the EU affair: the UK general election of 2019
in West European Politics
Description | We have created a resource for the research community which covers the 2019 European Parliament elections, the 2019 General Election and a wave which focussed on the impact of the COVID pandemic. We have released a further 5 waves of the BES internet panel in addition to the 15 collected under the previous award. In 2020 we completed data collection for the 2019 post-election probability sample survey which started as a face-to-face-survey (as previous studies) but switched to push-to-web due to the pandemic. The data from this study was released to the user community in January 2021 along with some preliminary analyses including analysis of the relationship between age and voting behaviour. We have carried out analysis of data from the 2019 as part of a book project with Oxford University Press on "Volatility, realignment and electoral shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019." We found that electoral volatility (vote switching) declined in 2019, with the electorate already heavily sorted by party along lines of Brexit preferences. This sorting increased moderately in 2019. We have begun detailed work on electoral realignment on the basis of social class, education, geography and age; and at the changing values underpinning those alignments and how they have been affected by Brexit. In a paper submitted to PS Symposium we show that the rise of a cultural dimension in political attitudes together with the decline of party identification has created the conditions for electoral realignment. While it may be too early to announce a stable realignment of British politics, we examine the extent to which the recent electoral change is consistent with what we might expect under realignment. On the face of it, the relationship between Brexit vote and party choice provides telling evidence. Data from the internet panel shows a steady upward trend in the proportion of Conservative voters who were Leavers and Labour voters who Remainers. By the 2019 election over 80% of both major parties' support was drawn from their 'own side' on Brexit. However, realignment suggests a more fundamental shift in underlying patterns of support. Indicators might include a re-stabilisation of individual level party choice following a period of heightened volatility; substantial shifts in the social and geographical bases of support; and the rise of new political identities based around the new electoral cleavage. The early stages of this research also fed into the Labour Together Commission's review into the election. We showed how Labour grew relatively weaker among Leave supporters, though this trend had begun long before 2019, preceding even the EU referendum. Labour's support fell across all social classes but the Conservatives increased their lead among working class voters which they established in 2017. Labour were regarded as very left-wing on average, but this did not appear to account for drop in support since 2017. They were perceived as pro-European on average, but this also does not account for the fall in support since 2017 and any move in a Euro-sceptic direction would have been likely to have cost as many votes as it gained. Labour's potential support base - including those that did not vote Labour - was predominantly pro-remain, even in leave leaning areas and in 'red wall' seats. The most dramatic difference since 2017 was in Corbyn's likeability ratings and this accounts for a substantial proportion of Labour's drop in support. In respect to electoral competition, the Brexit party took more votes from the Conservatives than from Labour while joining the Remain alliance would not have benefited Labour. Liberal Democrats would have been equally as likely to have switched to the Conservatives in marginal seats. In contrast the Liberal Democrats may have gained more seats as a result of such an alliance. This analysis was presented to members of the Labour Parliamentary party at Westminster on March 3rd 2020 and submitted as evidence to the Labour Together commission review of the 2019 election. Our research on Brexit party voters suggests that Brexit Party voters are primarily those voters who transitioned in and out of supporting the Conservatives (rather than Labour), and who supported UKIP in previous elections. We analysed a new European Parliament Elections panel, between 2014 and 2019, and found the demographics and motivations of UKIP (2014) and Brexit Party (2019) voters to be very similar. Furthermore, to understand the Conservatives' success in 2019 we find substantial Labour to Conservative switching among Labour Leave voters, lower switching rates away from the Conservatives among Conservative Remain voters, and higher leader ratings for Boris Johnson, relative to Theresa May, especially among Leave voters, including those who switched to the Conservatives. This analysis was presented at the September EPOP conference in Glasgow and at the BES and UK in a Changing Europe conference in December 2019, just ahead of the election. Our analysis from the 2020 panel wave showed that attitudes towards coronavirus policies more closely resemble traditional economic political conflicts than second-dimension conflicts such as Brexit and immigration. These results were released as a working paper on SSRN and are under review at Parliamentary Affairs. |
Exploitation Route | Our data are widely used by academics, media and political researchers to understand developments in British Politics. We have put a number of measures into place to widen access and promote usage and have received enthusiastic feedback from the research community about the quality and timeliness of our data. The BES website allows direct download of data as well as a dedicated online analysis research tool. Since 2014 date we have recorded nearly 300 publications using the BES data. The previous BES was used extensively by the polling industry to help understand the polling errors in previous elections, and to improve weighting strategies. The data were used by political parties and other strategists, to help understand the electorate and improve campaign targeting and to understand the outcome of elections. The BES is used extensively in media including TV (e.g. election night programming on ITV and BBC), national radio (e.g. the Today program, the World at One), print media (all national and many international newspapers) and, of course, online. The 2019 BES data has attracted a huge amount of interest and we have provided detailed analysis to the Labour Party for Labour Together review of the 2019 election. |
Sectors | Government, Democracy and Justice |
URL | https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/ |
Description | Work on the 2019 General Election was fed into the Labour Together Commission's review into the election. We showed how Labour grew relatively weaker among Leave supporters, though this trend had begun long before 2019, preceding even the EU referendum. Labour's support fell across all social classes but the Conservatives increased their lead among working class voters which they established in 2017. Labour were regarded as very left-wing on average, but this did not appear to account for drop in support since 2017. They were perceived as pro-European on average, but this also does not account for the fall in support since 2017 and any move in a Euro-sceptic direction would have been likely to have cost as many votes as it gained. Labour's potential support base - including those that did not vote Labour - was predominantly pro-remain, even in leave leaning areas and in 'red wall' seats. The most dramatic difference since 2017 was in Corbyn's likeability ratings and this accounts for a substantial proportion of Labour's drop in support. In respect to electoral competition, the Brexit party took more votes from the Conservatives than from Labour while joining the Remain alliance would not have benefited Labour. Liberal Democrats would have been equally as likely to have switched to the Conservatives in marginal seats. In contrast the Liberal Democrats may have gained more seats as a result of such an alliance. This analysis was presented to members of the Labour Parliamentary party at Westminster on March 3rd 2020 and submitted as evidence to the Labour Together commission review of the 2019 election. In a letter to Professor Fieldhouse the Labour Together Review commissioners wrote that BES data, "was incredibly helpful as our review aimed to understand Labour's decline in support over a longer period.Although they were hard to face, our conclusions were evidence-based and accepted across the party. We are certain that the deep respect for the work of the British Election Study from people across Labour's political sphere helped us to achieve this." British Election Study data was again used in high profile BAFTA award-nominated national television broadcasts, on the ITV 2019 general election night special, and also in the ITV 'Brexit special' programme marking Britain's departure from the EU. Specifically, the election night broadcasts used individual-level BES survey data to challenge an incorrect assumption about which party was gaining votes from the Brexit Party, which was important for explaining the outcome in key seats. For the Brexit special programme, BES data was used to explain the most important electoral changes that had arisen due to Brexit; the realignment of voters on the basis of age and education, and why and how that had shaped the prior election outcome. These television programmes placed BES data in a high profile role, and followed a large number of additional media interviews by the Scientific Leadership Team around the election period in particular. |
First Year Of Impact | 2020 |
Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice |
Description | Contribution to Labour Together Commission Election Review |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a national consultation |
Description | Oral evidence to House of Lords Select Committee on The Electoral Registration and Administration ACT 2013 |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a national consultation |
Description | Written evidence submitted to the House of Lords Select Committee on The Electoral Registration and Administration ACT 2013 |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a national consultation |
Title | 2019 British Election Study Post-Election Random Probability Survey |
Description | Version 1.0.0 of the 2019 British Election Study Post-Election Random Probability Survey. Fieldhouse, E., J. Green., G. Evans., J. Mellon, C. Prosser, R. de Geus, and J. Bailey (2021) 2019 BES Post-Election Random Probability Survey v.1.0.0 [computer file], January 2021. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | too soon to detect |
URL | https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/cross-sectional-data/ |
Title | 2019 British Election Study Post-Election Random Probability Survey User Guide and Codebook |
Description | |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://osf.io/3y9dv/ |
Title | British Election Study Combined Wave 1-20 Internet Panel |
Description | A panel dataset including waves 1-20 of the BES Internet Panel. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Impact relates more generally to the program of research using the BES by the team and also the BES user community and are covered in the impact narrative section. |
URL | https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/ |
Title | Wave 18 of BES internet panel |
Description | Wave 18 of BES internet panel (rolling daily campaign sample) collected between 14/11/19 and 11/12/19 with 37,825 respondents |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | * too early for impact |
URL | https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/ |
Title | Wave 19 of BES internet panel |
Description | Wave 19 of BES internet panel (post election wave) fielded between 13/12/19 and 23/12/19 with 32,177 respondents |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | * too soon for impact |
URL | https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/ |
Title | Wave 20 of the 2014-2023 British Election Study Internet Panel |
Description | wave 20 of the British Election Study Internet Panel carried out in June 2020 available for download from https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/ |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Impact relates more generally to the program of research using the BES by the team and also the BES user community and are covered in the impact narrative section. |
URL | https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/ |
Title | waves 17 of BES internet panel |
Description | Wave 17 of BES internet panel collected between 1/11/19 and 12/11/19 with 34,366 respondents |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | * Too early for impact |
URL | https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/ |
Description | "Coalition Directed Voting for Minor Parties under First Past the Post", invited talk, UCL |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | presentation, Talks and panels |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | "The Economic Basis of Populism: New Insights into the Economic Drivers of the Brexit Vote", Conference series, The Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship, Montreal |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | presentation |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://csdc-cecd.ca/speaker-series-jane-green/ |
Description | 152 mentions of the British Election Study in British Newspapers, September 2019-January 2020 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Factiva search of British newspapers for "British Election Study", 1/9/2019-31/1/2020, covering the run-up and aftermath of the 2019 General Election |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019,2020 |
Description | Annual Conference of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Chris Prosser - The Moral Foundations of Brexit attitudes |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | BBC News 24 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | BBC News 24 Jon Mellon |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | BBC News reports |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | NI paper review General election 2019: What is tactical voting? General election 2019: Will this be a Brexit election? The electoral rapids of the River Dee General election 2019: Under-30s question politicians in TV debate General election 2019: What is the secret behind tactical voting? |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | BBC Politics Live - Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Live interview - Jane Green |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | BBC Sunday Politics South East Jon Mellon |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | live interview |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Bloomberg news reports |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | What's Keeping Britain's Pollsters Awake Ahead of the Election? Herd of Pound Bulls Sees Currency's Potential Unleashed in 2020 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Brexit and British voters conference with UKiCE |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Pics: https://www.flickr.com/photos/142325304@N02/albums/72157712074226763 Videos: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/videos/ |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://ukandeu.ac.uk/videos/ |
Description | Cabinet Consultation "Measuring the impact and consequences of attempts by non-UK actors to influence or otherwise undermine UK electoral processes", Cabinet Office |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Cabinet Consultation "Measuring the impact and consequences of attempts by non-UK actors to influence or otherwise undermine UK electoral processes", Cabinet Office |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Channel 4 News Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | pre recorded interview with Gary Gibbon |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Channel 4 news |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | quote Jon M |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-farage-takes-credit-for-conservative-election-win-... |
Description | Daily Mail online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Newspaper |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-farage-takes-credit-for-conservative-election-win-... |
Description | Daily Telegraph online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Switching parties 'the new norm' as current electorate is named the most volatile in modern times Election wargaming: The 41 Brexit-backing seats that will become the main target of the Tory campaign The split in the Remain vote could be enough to loosen Labour's grip and hand the Conservatives a majority |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/08/switching-parties-new-norm-current-electorate-named-... |
Description | Evening Express online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | online report |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Evening Standard Online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/boris-johnson-is-unifying-leave-but-he-could-still-suffer-an-election-nightmare-a4272416.html |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/boris-johnson-is-unifying-leave-but-he-could-still-suffer... |
Description | Expert for analysis of the GE result Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | TV- ITV |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | France 24 Jon Mellon |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Jon Mellon interviewed - Panel discussion |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Guardian Podcast - Chris Prosser |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | its the final countdown - politics weekly podcast |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Guardian politics podcast |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Chris Prosser took part in a discussion about the 2019 election campaign. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Huff Post UK online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | The Brexit Party Is A Threat To Boris Johnson, Not Jeremy Corbyn. Here's Why. Will Labour's 'Red Wall' Fall Because Of Brexit Or Corbyn? Or Both? Why A December Election Is A Huge Gamble For Both Johnson And Corbyn |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | ITV - Brexit Live |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | https://www.pscp.tv/w/1RDGlQepgLOJL |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.itv.com/news/2020-01-31/brexit-day-boris-johnson-leave-european-union/ |
Description | ITV News (20 Nov) Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Jane interviewed by Allegra Stratton |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | ITV News Calling Peston - Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Recorded Podcast |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.itv.com/news/2019-11-04/calling-peston-the-itv-news-election-podcast-listen-and-subscrib... |
Description | ITV News Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | jane interviewed by Allegra Stratton more undecided voters are women than men- but in a thoughtful way |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | ITV News Online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | General Election 2019: What you need to know today General Election 2019: What you need to know today Dudley North is Tory target seat No.3 - but BAME voters have little time for Boris Johnson East Anglia's first time voters grill politicians on trust, Brexit and the environment More undecided voters are women than men - but in a thoughtful way |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.itv.com/news/2019-11-22/general-election-2019-what-you-need-to-know-today-on-friday-22-n... |
Description | Independent online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Boris Johnson's push for general election in danger of backfiring, new study indicates Swinson, Corbyn and the SNP have condemned us to five years of Boris' Britain, and they are not going to enjoy it General election: How voter loyalty that lasted 100 years is vanishing - making 2019 impossible to call The usual political rules are history - these are the key questions for this general election |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Interview on BBC newsnight |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Interview on BBC newsnight about the 2019 election and the likely impact of the Brexit Party on the election. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | LBC, Eddie Mair Show Chris Prosser |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | national radio show |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | May 15 (New Statesman publication) - Jon Mellon |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | http://may2015.com/featured/ukippers-are-likely-to-have-voted-tory-in-2010-but-labour-in-the-1990s/ |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | http://may2015.com/featured/ukippers-are-likely-to-have-voted-tory-in-2010-but-labour-in-the-1990s/ |
Description | Mind the Gap: Why Wealthy Voters Support Brexit (BES data), University of Essex |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | presentation talk and panel |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Newsnight |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Live TV |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Panelist at the "Politics in Crisis" Series, LSE Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Panel discussion on "What do the results of the British general election mean for Labour and the left?" |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | http://www.lse.ac.uk/lse-player?id=4811 |
Description | Programme's psephologies for GE night Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | TV - ITV |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBpXBxK1H2M |
Description | Prospect Podcast Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Podcast Can we trust the polls |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/audio-can-we-trust-the-polls-yougov-uk-election-2019 |
Description | Radio 4 PM |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | live radio interview |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Radio 4 Today Programme 22/11/19 Live interview about Youthquake |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | interview about Youthquake on Radio 4 Today programme, using evidence from BES research |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Radio 4 Today Programme Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | live radio programme |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Radio 4 WATO Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | 28 october |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Radio 5 Live Jon Mellon |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | live radio interview |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Radio Wales |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | live radio interview |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Red Box Podcast Jane Green Geoff Evans Chris Prosser |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | x |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://play.acast.com/s/timesredbox/2dce3945-c323-4f0a-adb1-fd8b7e80913d |
Description | Regius roundtable on Democracy in Decline, University of Essex Jane Green |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | jane green talk and panel |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.essex.ac.uk/events/2020/03/10/annual-regius-lecture |
Description | Reuters |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Daily Briefing: Going nowhere fast A question of trust: British pollsters battle to call looming election British PM Johnson gambles on an election to decide the fate of Brexit RPT-SCENARIOS-UK's winter election: What's in it for markets? |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Sky News online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Sky Views: This election is make or break for Boris Johnson and his Brexit dream General election 2020: Stumbling start for both main parties in the race for Number 10 General Election 2019: Volatile voters 'behaving more like consumers' Sky Views: This election is a choice between Brexit identity and party allegiance |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Sun Online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10089261/half-of-brits-are-now-swing-voters-and-have-no-party-loyalties/ |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10089261/half-of-brits-are-now-swing-voters-and-have-no-party-l... |
Description | Talk on "Explaining Volatility in British Elections: Electoral Shocks and the Volatile Voter in Turbulent World", Stated Meeting of Governing Body Lecture, Nuffield College |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presentation, talk and Panel |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | The BES and Scottish Politics 2019 - 2023 Sept 19 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | part of EPOP 2019 University of Strathclyde 13/09/19 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/manage/events/63435248536/basicinfo |
Description | The Guardian |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Uncertainty over Brexit will make election hard to call politics live blog Brexit's legacy for England will be politics as sectarian as Northern Ireland's Johnson's desperate for a general election, but he faces an unpleasant surprise The shake-up in Corbyn's team comes at a critical moment for Labour Our voting system needs reform - not photo ID Why Labour's election reluctance goes beyond no-deal Brexit fears With such volatile voters, all poll bets are off for a snap election Even if the Tories win an election, Brexit will finish them A disgrace? Not at all: we'll miss this House of Commons Brexit weekly briefing: election result likely to catch out the pundits How Britain's elections became impossible to predict 14m UK voters live in areas held by same party since second world war 14m UK voters live in areas held by same party since second world war Britain's young people are radicalised and registered. Will this be our election? Labour lost its leavers while Tory remainers stayed loyal |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | The Guardian - Jon Mellon |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Why the polls were wrong in 2015? Expert says 'lazy Labour' may offer best explanation Liberal Democrats facing even bigger wipeout than expected Any party that fails to speak for England can forget about No 10 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | The Herald Online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18087324.youthquake-damp-squib-will-young-people-really-swing-weeks-election/ |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18087324.youthquake-damp-squib-will-young-people-really-swing-we... |
Description | The Huffington Post - Jon Melon |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | How Google Trends Predicted Donald Trump's Rise, and What it Means for Polling |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-google-trends-predict_b_9760706 |
Description | The I online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Boris Johnson warned that his push for an early election risks backfiring Most of the election polls are probably wrong, but there isn't an effective solution This general election result will be harder to predict than ever before General election 2019 polls: There's a lot of uncertainty over who would win, so here's what we actually know |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://inews.co.uk/opinion/columnists/general-election-2019-analysis-comment-stephen-bush-result-pr... |
Description | The Observer Online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Buckle up, Britain, it will be a rocky and twisting road to polling day With such volatile voters, all poll bets are off for a snap election |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | The Times Online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Boris Johnson's election hopes hit by rise of floating voters Nobody knows what will happen in an election. Here's why General election: Volatile swing voters mean a December poll is Boris Johnson's biggest gamble yet Nigel Farage's Brexit Party is unlikely to win seats but can wound Boris Johnson Ignoring women is a risky game for Johnson This could be my first time voting - and the idea fills me with dread Let's welcome the death of the political tribe |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Times Red Box podcast |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Times Red Box podcast devoted to BES research and Electoral Shocks book, and the upcoming election. Featured Professor Jane Green, Professor Geoff Evans, and Dr Chris Prosser |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Washington Post - Jon Mellon |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | World values lost in translation No, Trump won't win votes from disaffected Democrats in the fall |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Workshop on using BES data, The Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship, Montreal |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | workshop |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Yahoo Online |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | UK parties argue over election as EU mulls Brexit delay How many voters really switch parties in British elections? What the evidence tells us |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | presentation EPOP |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | 'Separating the effects of proportional representation from the effects of coalition expectations: Coalition-directed voting in a majoritarian electoral system' |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |