Voters and the British Political System in the Context of Brexit: the British Election Study 2019-2023

Lead Research Organisation: University of Manchester
Department Name: Social Sciences

Abstract

The British electorate has become more volatile in recent decades. This volatile environment has allowed recent political shocks and events to bring about a period of rapid and dramatic political change. In 2015 we witnessed fragmentation of party support with the collapse of the Liberal Democrats and the rise of smaller and newer parties such as UKIP, the Greens, and the SNP. In 2017, following the Brexit vote, this was reversed, with a surge in support for the Conservatives and Labour, with many voters choosing on the basis of their attitudes towards Europe and immigration. Whatever form Brexit eventually takes, it will have huge electoral consequences and the next five years are likely to see further shifts in the electoral landscape. The British Election Study will be designed to provide a deep and theoretically informed understanding of those changes. We are proposing a study that maximizes the understanding of the immediate electoral and political consequences of Brexit - both for academic and non-academic beneficiaries.

Our proposed project will achieve this by collecting high quality survey data for the research community, a broad array of the most relevant and timely questions, and a clear dissemination and impact plan. We will also achieve this by carrying out a program of theoretically informed research linking long-term trends in electoral volatility and contemporary political events. The project will benefit from a high level of continuity with the 2014-2019 BES (and historical BES studies) in terms of methodological and theoretical approach and a substantial degree of innovation, keeping the BES at the forefront of national election studies globally.

The BES will consist of two core components: a post-election cross-sectional nationally representative sample survey of citizens; and an internet panel. The content of these surveys will be organised around the themes of accountability, representation and support for the political system. The surveys will allow users to understand and demonstrate how these key areas of democracy are affected by Brexit. The study will be designed to allow investigation of geographical and social variation in representation, accountability and system support. By maximising the extent of comparability with past studies it will also make it possible to compare voter behaviour and attitudes across successive election studies. Similarly the BES will help researchers to understand the role of national context by ensuring comparability between Britain and other countries. The inter-election panel will provide a platform for analysing the drivers of individual-level change and will include questions designed by and for the user community. Users will be able to investigate the impact of the election campaign using our daily sample of voters. We will also make it possible to link data from other sources including other surveys. We will work with the Social Science One Consortium to enable researchers to link Facebook data to BES respondents anonymously and securely which will allow users to combine BES survey responses with behavioural social media data.

We will set aside 15% of the Internet Panel as an Innovation Module (split into four parts). We will use this space for user-created modules that are relevant to both the users' research agendas and the wider user community. This survey space will also allow the BES team to trial new items and adapt items from other studies for comparability and relevance to ongoing debates in the literature.

Our custom designed BES website will provide easy access to data and stories arising from the BES. A program of consultation, events and media engagement will ensure that the study enhances public awareness and understanding of electoral politics, and assist academic and non-academic researchers in their own work.

Planned Impact

The impact of the BES has risen significantly in recent years. Building on the authority of the BES as a reliable source of non-partisan information about British elections and voters amongst non-academic audiences, the next BES will continue and enhance public and political understanding of uncertainty, volatility, and in particular the political consequences of Brexit.

Journalists benefit from BES data and analysis, providing accurate news content, background briefings, and a dataset that is used widely in print and broadcast reporting. Our events will disseminate research findings and consult on novel and timely survey questions; our website will disseminate high-impact findings; and the BES Data Playground will make more data available for journalists to use. BES investigators will continue to produce research for BBC online, ITV News, and other broadcasters, as well as print media. BES data is used throughout the night for BBC election programming and is an integral part of ITV News election coverage, with live analysis and BES-based data dissemination commentary. This is achieved - especially with ITV - by long-term planning and very close collaboration. A BES documentary is being explored currently with another broadcaster. Furthermore, by partnering with Social Science One (via the Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University), BES data linking to Facebook data, and separately with twitter data, will provide useful analysis for global social media platforms, as well as benefiting social media journalists.

Political parties and campaigning organisations benefit from BES data and analysis, informing party campaigns, the understanding of election outcomes and major changes between elections. This will be achieved by regular one-to-one meetings, events, ongoing dissemination on the BES website, and via the media. This impact also extends to government departments, especially where concerned with civic engagement and participation. Our experience of giving testimony to House of Commons and Lords Committees is very likely to be repeated in the future.

The BES will partner with the Electoral Commission to ensure rigorous understanding of electoral participation, political campaign effects and electoral processes. This informs understanding, policy and also practice, as relevant. We will also invite partnerships with other independent organisations, as we have previously with the Hansard Society and the Committee for the Protection of Standards in Public Life, and through providing insight and analysis for publications and seminars organised by a variety of think tanks. This leads to public understanding of British elections and political attitudes.

BES data plays an essential role underpinning the British polling industry which benefits from BES data in two ways. First, it informs understanding of the relationships between key variables and political choice and turnout, and the reasons for recent polling misses. Second, the BES post-election surveys play an essential behind-the-scenes role in providing the weighting targets for the industry.

Finally, it is our view that - without the BES - the public would not be served by a non-partisan, transparent, freely available, high quality survey and analysis. Information is a key part of the democratic process. BES data and analysis provides a check on political claims (e.g. one political party is supported by one group or another), whether one party is likely to breakthrough in an upcoming election. It helps people better understand whether they can and should trust opinion polls, and explains how fellow citizens have contributed to election outcomes. In the forthcoming political period, this could not be more important. In an era of political volatility and contested truths, BES data will serve public understanding and accountability as a valuable part of the political process.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description We have created a resource for the research community which covers the 2019 General Election and 2019 European Parliament elections. We have released a further 4 waves of the BES internet panel in addition to the 15 collected under the previous award.

Although the first data collection for the 2019 BES has only just finished being collected, we have carried out some preliminary analysis, focusing on the performance of Labour in the 2019 election which is being fed into the Labour Together Commission's review into the election. We found that electoral volatility (vote switching) declined in 2019, with the electorate already heavily sorted by party along lines of Brexit preferences. This sorting increased moderately in 2019. Labour grew relatively weaker among leave supporters, though this trend had begun long before 2019, preceding even the EU referendum. Labour's support fell across all social classes but the Conservatives increased their lead among working class voters which they established in 2017. Labour were regarded as very left-wing on average, but this did not appear to account for drop in support since 2017. They were perceived as pro-European on average, but this also does not account for the fall in support since 201 and any move in a Euro-sceptic direction would have been likely to have cost as many votes as it gained. Labour's potential support base - including those that did not vote Labour - was predominantly pro-remain, even in leave leaning areas and in 'red wall' seats. The most dramatic difference since 2017 was in Corbyn's likeability ratings and this accounts for a substantial proportion of Labour's drop in support. In respect to electoral competition, the Brexit party took more votes from the Conservatives than from Labour while joining the Remain alliance would not have benefited Labour. Liberal Democrats would have been equally as likely to have switched to the Conservatives in marginal seats. In contrast the Liberal Democrats may have gained more seats as a result of such an alliance. This analysis was presented to members of the Labour Parliamentary party at Westminster on March 3rd 2020 and submitted as evidence to the Labour Together commission review of the 2019 election.

Preliminary analysis on Brexit party voters, and on the Conservatives' success among Leave voters has also been conducted. This suggests that Brexit Party voters are primarily those voters who transitioned in and out of supporting the Conservatives (rather than Labour), and who supported UKIP in previous elections. We analysed a new European Parliament Elections panel, between 2014 and 2019, and found the demographics and motivations of UKIP (2014) and Brexit Party (2019) voters to be very similar. Furthermore, to understand the Conservatives' success in 2019 we find substantial Labour to Conservative switching among Labour Leave voters, lower switching rates away from the Conservatives among Conservative Remain voters, and higher leader ratings for Boris Johnson, relative to Theresa May, especially among Leave voters, including those who switched to the Conservatives. This analysis was presented at the September EPOP conference in Glasgow and at the BES and UK in a Changing Europe conference in December 2019, just ahead of the election.
Exploitation Route Our data are widely used by academics, media and political researchers to understand developments in British Politics. We have put a number of measures into place to widen access and promote usage and have received enthusiastic feedback from the research community about the quality and timeliness of our data. The BES website allows direct download of data as well as a dedicated online analysis research tool. Since 2014 date we have recorded over 200 publications using the BES data. The previous BES was used extensively by the polling industry to help understand the polling errors in previous elections, and to improve weighting strategies. The data were used by political parties and other strategists, to help understand the electorate and improve campaign targeting and to understand the outcome of elections. The BES is used extensively in media including TV (e.g. election night programming), national radio (e.g the Today program, the World at One), print media (all national and many international newspapers) and, of course, online. Although it is early in the project the new BES data (released on 06/03/20) has already attracted a huge amount of interest and we have provided detailed analysis to the Labour Party for Labour Tother's review of the 2019 election.
Sectors Government, Democracy and Justice

URL https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/
 
Description Contribution to Labour Together Commission Election Review
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
 
Description Oral evidence to House of Lords Select Committee on The Electoral Registration and Administration ACT 2013
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
 
Description Written evidence submitted to the House of Lords Select Committee on The Electoral Registration and Administration ACT 2013
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
 
Title Wave 18 of BES internet panel 
Description Wave 18 of BES internet panel (rolling daily campaign sample) collected between 14/11/19 and 11/12/19 with 37,825 respondents 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact * too early for impact 
URL https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/
 
Title Wave 19 of BES internet panel 
Description Wave 19 of BES internet panel (post election wave) fielded between 13/12/19 and 23/12/19 with 32,177 respondents 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact * too soon for impact 
URL https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/
 
Title waves 17 of BES internet panel 
Description Wave 17 of BES internet panel collected between 1/11/19 and 12/11/19 with 34,366 respondents 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2020 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact * Too early for impact 
URL https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/
 
Description "Coalition Directed Voting for Minor Parties under First Past the Post", invited talk, UCL 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact presentation, Talks and panels
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description "The Economic Basis of Populism: New Insights into the Economic Drivers of the Brexit Vote", Conference series, The Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship, Montreal 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact presentation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://csdc-cecd.ca/speaker-series-jane-green/
 
Description 152 mentions of the British Election Study in British Newspapers, September 2019-January 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Factiva search of British newspapers for "British Election Study", 1/9/2019-31/1/2020, covering the run-up and aftermath of the 2019 General Election
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019,2020
 
Description Annual Conference of the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Chris Prosser - The Moral Foundations of Brexit attitudes
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description BBC News 24 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact BBC News 24 Jon Mellon
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description BBC News reports 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact NI paper review
General election 2019: What is tactical voting?
General election 2019: Will this be a Brexit election?
The electoral rapids of the River Dee
General election 2019: Under-30s question politicians in TV debate
General election 2019: What is the secret behind tactical voting?
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description BBC Politics Live - Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Live interview - Jane Green
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description BBC Sunday Politics South East Jon Mellon 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact live interview
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Bloomberg news reports 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact What's Keeping Britain's Pollsters Awake Ahead of the Election?
Herd of Pound Bulls Sees Currency's Potential Unleashed in 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Brexit and British voters conference with UKiCE 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Pics: https://www.flickr.com/photos/142325304@N02/albums/72157712074226763
Videos: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/videos/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/videos/
 
Description Cabinet Consultation "Measuring the impact and consequences of attempts by non-UK actors to influence or otherwise undermine UK electoral processes", Cabinet Office 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Cabinet Consultation "Measuring the impact and consequences of attempts by non-UK actors to influence or otherwise undermine UK electoral processes", Cabinet Office
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Channel 4 News Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact pre recorded interview with Gary Gibbon
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Channel 4 news 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact quote Jon M
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-farage-takes-credit-for-conservative-election-win-...
 
Description Daily Mail online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Newspaper
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-farage-takes-credit-for-conservative-election-win-...
 
Description Daily Telegraph online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Switching parties 'the new norm' as current electorate is named the most volatile in modern times
Election wargaming: The 41 Brexit-backing seats that will become the main target of the Tory campaign
The split in the Remain vote could be enough to loosen Labour's grip and hand the Conservatives a majority
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/08/switching-parties-new-norm-current-electorate-named-...
 
Description Evening Express online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact online report
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Evening Standard Online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/boris-johnson-is-unifying-leave-but-he-could-still-suffer-an-election-nightmare-a4272416.html
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/boris-johnson-is-unifying-leave-but-he-could-still-suffer...
 
Description Expert for analysis of the GE result Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact TV- ITV
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description France 24 Jon Mellon 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Jon Mellon interviewed - Panel discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Guardian Podcast - Chris Prosser 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact its the final countdown - politics weekly podcast
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Guardian politics podcast 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Chris Prosser took part in a discussion about the 2019 election campaign.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Huff Post UK online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The Brexit Party Is A Threat To Boris Johnson, Not Jeremy Corbyn. Here's Why.
Will Labour's 'Red Wall' Fall Because Of Brexit Or Corbyn? Or Both?
Why A December Election Is A Huge Gamble For Both Johnson And Corbyn
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description ITV - Brexit Live 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact https://www.pscp.tv/w/1RDGlQepgLOJL
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.itv.com/news/2020-01-31/brexit-day-boris-johnson-leave-european-union/
 
Description ITV News (20 Nov) Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Jane interviewed by Allegra Stratton
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description ITV News Calling Peston - Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Recorded Podcast
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.itv.com/news/2019-11-04/calling-peston-the-itv-news-election-podcast-listen-and-subscrib...
 
Description ITV News Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact jane interviewed by Allegra Stratton

more undecided voters are women than men- but in a thoughtful way
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description ITV News Online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact General Election 2019: What you need to know today
General Election 2019: What you need to know today
Dudley North is Tory target seat No.3 - but BAME voters have little time for Boris Johnson
East Anglia's first time voters grill politicians on trust, Brexit and the environment
More undecided voters are women than men - but in a thoughtful way
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.itv.com/news/2019-11-22/general-election-2019-what-you-need-to-know-today-on-friday-22-n...
 
Description Independent online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Boris Johnson's push for general election in danger of backfiring, new study indicates
Swinson, Corbyn and the SNP have condemned us to five years of Boris' Britain, and they are not going to enjoy it
General election: How voter loyalty that lasted 100 years is vanishing - making 2019 impossible to call
The usual political rules are history - these are the key questions for this general election
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Interview on BBC newsnight 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Interview on BBC newsnight about the 2019 election and the likely impact of the Brexit Party on the election.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description LBC, Eddie Mair Show Chris Prosser 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact national radio show
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description May 15 (New Statesman publication) - Jon Mellon 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact http://may2015.com/featured/ukippers-are-likely-to-have-voted-tory-in-2010-but-labour-in-the-1990s/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://may2015.com/featured/ukippers-are-likely-to-have-voted-tory-in-2010-but-labour-in-the-1990s/
 
Description Mind the Gap: Why Wealthy Voters Support Brexit (BES data), University of Essex 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact presentation talk and panel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Newsnight 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Live TV
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Panelist at the "Politics in Crisis" Series, LSE Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Panel discussion on "What do the results of the British general election mean for Labour and the left?"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/lse-player?id=4811
 
Description Programme's psephologies for GE night Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact TV - ITV
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBpXBxK1H2M
 
Description Prospect Podcast Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Podcast Can we trust the polls
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/audio-can-we-trust-the-polls-yougov-uk-election-2019
 
Description Radio 4 PM 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact live radio interview
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Radio 4 Today Programme 22/11/19 Live interview about Youthquake 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact interview about Youthquake on Radio 4 Today programme, using evidence from BES research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Radio 4 Today Programme Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact live radio programme
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Radio 4 WATO Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 28 october
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Radio 5 Live Jon Mellon 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact live radio interview
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Radio Wales 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact live radio interview
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Red Box Podcast Jane Green Geoff Evans Chris Prosser 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact x
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://play.acast.com/s/timesredbox/2dce3945-c323-4f0a-adb1-fd8b7e80913d
 
Description Regius roundtable on Democracy in Decline, University of Essex Jane Green 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact jane green talk and panel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.essex.ac.uk/events/2020/03/10/annual-regius-lecture
 
Description Reuters 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Daily Briefing: Going nowhere fast
A question of trust: British pollsters battle to call looming election
British PM Johnson gambles on an election to decide the fate of Brexit
RPT-SCENARIOS-UK's winter election: What's in it for markets?
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Sky News online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Sky Views: This election is make or break for Boris Johnson and his Brexit dream
General election 2020: Stumbling start for both main parties in the race for Number 10
General Election 2019: Volatile voters 'behaving more like consumers'
Sky Views: This election is a choice between Brexit identity and party allegiance
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Sun Online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10089261/half-of-brits-are-now-swing-voters-and-have-no-party-loyalties/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/10089261/half-of-brits-are-now-swing-voters-and-have-no-party-l...
 
Description Talk on "Explaining Volatility in British Elections: Electoral Shocks and the Volatile Voter in Turbulent World", Stated Meeting of Governing Body Lecture, Nuffield College 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation, talk and Panel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description The BES and Scottish Politics 2019 - 2023 Sept 19 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact part of EPOP 2019 University of Strathclyde 13/09/19
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/manage/events/63435248536/basicinfo
 
Description The Guardian 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Uncertainty over Brexit will make election hard to call
politics live blog
Brexit's legacy for England will be politics as sectarian as Northern Ireland's
Johnson's desperate for a general election, but he faces an unpleasant surprise
The shake-up in Corbyn's team comes at a critical moment for Labour
Our voting system needs reform - not photo ID
Why Labour's election reluctance goes beyond no-deal Brexit fears
With such volatile voters, all poll bets are off for a snap election
Even if the Tories win an election, Brexit will finish them
A disgrace? Not at all: we'll miss this House of Commons
Brexit weekly briefing: election result likely to catch out the pundits
How Britain's elections became impossible to predict
14m UK voters live in areas held by same party since second world war
14m UK voters live in areas held by same party since second world war
Britain's young people are radicalised and registered. Will this be our election?
Labour lost its leavers while Tory remainers stayed loyal
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description The Guardian - Jon Mellon 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Why the polls were wrong in 2015? Expert says 'lazy Labour' may offer best explanation
Liberal Democrats facing even bigger wipeout than expected
Any party that fails to speak for England can forget about No 10
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description The Herald Online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18087324.youthquake-damp-squib-will-young-people-really-swing-weeks-election/
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18087324.youthquake-damp-squib-will-young-people-really-swing-we...
 
Description The Huffington Post - Jon Melon 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact How Google Trends Predicted Donald Trump's Rise, and What it Means for Polling
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-google-trends-predict_b_9760706
 
Description The I online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Boris Johnson warned that his push for an early election risks backfiring
Most of the election polls are probably wrong, but there isn't an effective solution
This general election result will be harder to predict than ever before
General election 2019 polls: There's a lot of uncertainty over who would win, so here's what we actually know
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://inews.co.uk/opinion/columnists/general-election-2019-analysis-comment-stephen-bush-result-pr...
 
Description The Observer Online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Buckle up, Britain, it will be a rocky and twisting road to polling day
With such volatile voters, all poll bets are off for a snap election
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description The Times Online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Boris Johnson's election hopes hit by rise of floating voters
Nobody knows what will happen in an election. Here's why
General election: Volatile swing voters mean a December poll is Boris Johnson's biggest gamble yet
Nigel Farage's Brexit Party is unlikely to win seats but can wound Boris Johnson
Ignoring women is a risky game for Johnson
This could be my first time voting - and the idea fills me with dread
Let's welcome the death of the political tribe
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Times Red Box podcast 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Times Red Box podcast devoted to BES research and Electoral Shocks book, and the upcoming election. Featured Professor Jane Green, Professor Geoff Evans, and Dr Chris Prosser
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Washington Post - Jon Mellon 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact World values lost in translation
No, Trump won't win votes from disaffected Democrats in the fall
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Workshop on using BES data, The Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship, Montreal 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact workshop
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Yahoo Online 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact UK parties argue over election as EU mulls Brexit delay
How many voters really switch parties in British elections? What the evidence tells us
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description presentation EPOP 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact 'Separating the effects of proportional representation from the effects of coalition expectations: Coalition-directed voting in a majoritarian electoral system'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019