MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

Lead Research Organisation: Imperial College London
Department Name: School of Public Health

Abstract

The continuing threat from new infectious diseases has been highlighted in recent years by the emergence of MERS-coronavirus in the Middle East, Ebola in West Africa and Zika in Latin America. Preparing for and responding to such threats is a priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. Equally importantly, as scientific research delivers new approaches to controlling existing infectious diseases such as malaria, HIV, tuberculosis and polio, there is a need to determine what interventions are likely to work best to limit the disease and illness caused by a specific disease in a particular setting.

In this context, computer modelling of the spread of diseases in populations coupled with scientifically rigorous data analysis have proven themselves as powerful tools for giving insight into how diseases spread and what can be done to limit that control that spread. The Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis undertakes research on these scientific methods and applies them to disease threats of concern.

A key feature of the Centre is the close links it has made with with public health agencies - such as the Public Health England, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) - organisations which have to formulate and implement strategies to control infectious diseases.

Senior scientists in the Centre are world-leaders in infectious disease modelling and analysis. They have broad experience in responding to real epidemics, and undertaking epidemiological research on endemic diseases (such as malaria, HIV, tuberculosis and polio). Their work directly influences disease control policy through the many interactions the Centre has with public health organisations and governments.

Funding provided by MRC and Imperial College has allowed dedicated investment into the development of close collaborative partnerships with PHE, CDC and WHO and governments and research centres in many low and middle income countries (LMICs). We also work closely with other important organisations who work on improving health in LMICs (notably the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, The Global Fund and Gavi). With each, our collaborative research has both scientific interest to Centre researchers and contributes to the evidence base for public health decisions. Centre funding supports a core technical capacity available to all projects and pays for dedicated liaison staff who facilitate and enhance our partnerships with major global health organisations and LMICs.

MRC funding has also facilitated a greater focus on collaboration, training and career development within the Centre - training the next generation of quantitative infectious disease epidemiologists. We are also involved in increasing knowledge of advanced modelling methods in public health institutions and the wider infectious disease research community, and so have run a large number of introductory short-courses and workshops (in 13 countries in the last 5 years)

This applied activity depends on more fundamental research undertaken in the Centre on the transmission dynamics of different diseases, how diseases evolve genetically over time, and on analysing new approaches to control or treat diseases. This research is interdisciplinary, with Centre researchers working with leading clinical and experimental scientists around the world.

Continued Centre funding will allow existing partnerships to be sustained and enhanced, and new collaborations with researchers and health agencies in LMICs to be developed. By supporting PhD training and postdoctoral career development, it will also continue to expand the UK skill base in mathematical modelling and advanced analysis applied to health problems. Last, continued MRC support will pump-prime new priority research areas, including work on improving the development of new vaccines and on tackling the global challenge posed by antimicrobial resistance.

Technical Summary

The continued threat posed by emerging infectious diseases has been highlighted in recent years by the emergence of MERS-coronavirus in the Middle East, Ebola in West Africa and Zika in Latin America. Preparedness therefore remains a policy priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. In addition, as new vaccines, drugs and other interventions are developed for endemic diseases such as malaria, HIV and TB, there is a need to extrapolate from clinical trial results to determine which combination of interventions gives the optimal (or most cost-effective) control strategy for a specific disease in a particular setting.

In this context, modern epidemiological modelling and analysis methods have proven themselves increasingly powerful tools for giving insight into the patterns of emergence of novel outbreaks, the transmission dynamics of endemic diseases and the options available for the control of both. The Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis is a world leader in research in this area, and in translating our research into improved public-health decision-making. Since it was founded, MRC funding has supported this translation by facilitating the forging of close partnerships with all major global health organisations (e.g. WHO, PHE, CDC, BMGF, The Global Fund, Gavi) and research centres and public health agencies in many low and middle income countries (LMICs).

Continued funding for the Centre will allow existing partnerships to be sustained and enhanced, and new collaborations with researchers and health agencies in LMICs to be developed. By supporting PhD training and postdoctoral career development, it will also continue to expand the UK skill base in mathematical modelling and advanced analysis applied to health problems. Last, continued MRC support will pump-prime new priority research areas, including work on improving the development of new vaccines and on tackling the global challenge posed by antimicrobial resistance.

Planned Impact

A primary aim of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis is to have societal as well as academic impact - both in the UK and across the world. Our goal is to improve public and global health decision making in relation to infectious disease control through the use of advanced statistical and mathematical modelling methods, whether in emergencies like the West African Ebola epidemic in 2014, or in improving control of major infectious disease killers like HIV, malaria and Tuberculosis. We believe the only effective way of delivering on this goal is to form long-term collaborative partnerships with the leading public and global health organisations world-wide, providing analytical support and capacity building for those partners.

Since the Centre was founded in 2008, we have worked on dozens of policy-relevant problems with decision-makers around the world. We provided real-time support to the World Health Organization (WHO), the governments of the UK, and many other international partners during the 2001 H1N1 influenza pandemic, in relation to continued outbreaks of MERS coronavirus in the Middle East, during the 2014-15 West African Ebola epidemic, and, most recently, during the Latin American Zika epidemic. In addition, we have worked closely with WHO and the major international organisations (e.g. The Global Fund, Gavi and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [BMGF]) that fund infectious disease control efforts in low income countries on HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, polio, influenza and a wide range of other diseases. Our relationship with BMGF is of particular strategic importance - it is both the largest funder of Centre research, but more importantly is a key stakeholder in global health decision-making.

These interactions, and our consequent impact on policy, is facilitated by staff dedicated to acting as liaisons between the scientists working in the Centre and the staff of the global and public health agencies we work with. Indeed, in times of crisis, we embed our staff in some of those key organisations. Recently, one of our researchers joined a WHO field mission to the Democratic Republic of Congo to help that country respond to an outbreak of Ebola.

In addition to formal research outputs, often the most important value we give to these organisations is advice provided from a dynamical modelling perspective. This analytical advisory role is multifaceted: from improving situational awareness in crises, advising on likely impact of interventions for endemic diseases, undertaking rapid analyses of priority questions, and advising on improving surveillance and data capture systems.

Capacity building within our partners is another priority, through informal skills transfer and formal training. The former occurs as a natural result of the degree of interaction, and for the latter we run short-courses, both in the Centre and at our partners' sites. Increasingly, we have also been undertaking capacity-building in low and middle income countries [LMIC], either by running disease-specific workshops with local ministries of health, or by training able local scientists. This activity will be further emphasised in the future.

In addition to impact on public health, we have also been increasing our collaborations with the pharmaceutical industry, most notably with vaccine manufacturers. In the last 5 years we have worked closely with GSK and Sanofi Pasteur, helping to characterise the effectiveness of their malaria and dengue vaccines, respectively. Our work involved analysing the data those companies collected on their products during clinical trials and advising them, WHO and regulatory agencies on how their vaccines might best be used. We also work with a wide range of public-private product development partnerships developing new vaccines, drugs and vector control measures.

Attached letters of support from UK DoH, GoS, PHE, US CDC, WHO and BMGF highlight the public health impact of the Centre.

Organisations

Publications

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Abbas M (2021) Surfing the COVID-19 scientific wave in The Lancet Infectious Diseases

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Abeler-Dörner L (2019) PANGEA-HIV 2: Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalised Epidemics in Africa. in Current opinion in HIV and AIDS

 
Title Additional file 2 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 2:Figure S1. Simulated annual seasonal variation in EIR assumed in the analysis of potential impact of AL and AS-AQ on population level transmission (Fig. 5, main text). The EIR shown is for the simulated seasonal medium transmission setting (slide prevalence = 15%), but the relative EIR variation across the year was the same in the seasonal low and high simulated transmission settings. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_2_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 2 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 2:Figure S1. Simulated annual seasonal variation in EIR assumed in the analysis of potential impact of AL and AS-AQ on population level transmission (Fig. 5, main text). The EIR shown is for the simulated seasonal medium transmission setting (slide prevalence = 15%), but the relative EIR variation across the year was the same in the seasonal low and high simulated transmission settings. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_2_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 3 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 3: Figure S1. Schematic illustration for visualising the value of an Ag-RDT-led strategy, relative to a scenario involving NAT and clinical judgement. Although the figure involves deaths averted, the same structure applies for averting infectious person-days. For a given set of parameters drawn from the parameter ranges shown in Table 2, we simulated the cost and impact of a given Ag-RDT-led strategy, and of a NAT-based testing strategy, both relative to a no-intervention scenario. This outcome was then represented in the figure by plotting the relative deaths averted by Ag-RDT vs NAT (horizontal axis) against the relative cost of the two strategies (vertical axis). Thus, for example, in the lower right quadrant, an Ag-RDT-led strategy would cost less, but have more impact, than NAT. The diagonal dashed line shows an important threshold: for points below this line, an Ag-RDT-led strategy would cost less per death averted than NAT, and vice versa. Overall, therefore, the shaded area shows the region in which an Ag-RDT would simultaneously cost less per death averted, and avert more deaths overall, than NAT. We denote this area as the 'favourable region' for an Ag-RDT, and elsewhere as 'non-favourable': in our current analysis we aim to identify the circumstances under which an Ag-RDT, of a given performance and cost, would occupy this region. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_3_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 3 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 3: Figure S1. Schematic illustration for visualising the value of an Ag-RDT-led strategy, relative to a scenario involving NAT and clinical judgement. Although the figure involves deaths averted, the same structure applies for averting infectious person-days. For a given set of parameters drawn from the parameter ranges shown in Table 2, we simulated the cost and impact of a given Ag-RDT-led strategy, and of a NAT-based testing strategy, both relative to a no-intervention scenario. This outcome was then represented in the figure by plotting the relative deaths averted by Ag-RDT vs NAT (horizontal axis) against the relative cost of the two strategies (vertical axis). Thus, for example, in the lower right quadrant, an Ag-RDT-led strategy would cost less, but have more impact, than NAT. The diagonal dashed line shows an important threshold: for points below this line, an Ag-RDT-led strategy would cost less per death averted than NAT, and vice versa. Overall, therefore, the shaded area shows the region in which an Ag-RDT would simultaneously cost less per death averted, and avert more deaths overall, than NAT. We denote this area as the 'favourable region' for an Ag-RDT, and elsewhere as 'non-favourable': in our current analysis we aim to identify the circumstances under which an Ag-RDT, of a given performance and cost, would occupy this region. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_3_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 3 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 3: Figure S2. The duration of post-treatment prophylaxis at different trial locations in order of increasing estimated EIR. Posterior estimates of the duration of protection provided by AL or AS-AQ are shown. The study sites are shown in order of increasing transmission intensity left to right according to posterior EIR estimates. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_3_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 3 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 3: Figure S2. The duration of post-treatment prophylaxis at different trial locations in order of increasing estimated EIR. Posterior estimates of the duration of protection provided by AL or AS-AQ are shown. The study sites are shown in order of increasing transmission intensity left to right according to posterior EIR estimates. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_3_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 4 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 4: Figure S3. Sensitivity analysis of PCR-correction misclassification: time to reinfection after treatment and model fits. Here we repeated the analysis shown in Fig. 2 of the main text on a modified dataset, in which we explored the impact of reclassifying some reinfections as recrudescences and removing them from the analysis. To reclassify reinfections for each trial arm, we sampled a number of reinfections equal to 3% of the study population, with probability weighted according to the estimated timings of recrudescence in Fig. 5 of [66] and the relative frequency of apparent 'reinfection' timing in the current dataset (such that the probabilities of sampling of reinfections, if present, at days 7,14,21,28,35, and 42 were 0.799, 0.100, 0.026, 0.014, 0.049, and 0.012). One site, Ndola in Zambia, was excluded after reclassification of reinfections, since one trial arm no longer contained reinfections and the model could not be fitted. The Figure shows the proportion of patients reinfected during follow up, amongst patients not experiencing recrudescence, after treatment at day 0 with AL (blue) or AS-AQ (green) in each of the 11 trial sites included in this sensitivity analysis. Circles show data with 95% CI, and the lines are the fits of the hidden semi-Markov model in each site. Here, the AL trial arms include in total 1956 individuals, 573 reinfections, and the AS-AQ trial arms, 2001 individuals, 475 reinfections. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_4_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 4 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 4: Figure S3. Sensitivity analysis of PCR-correction misclassification: time to reinfection after treatment and model fits. Here we repeated the analysis shown in Fig. 2 of the main text on a modified dataset, in which we explored the impact of reclassifying some reinfections as recrudescences and removing them from the analysis. To reclassify reinfections for each trial arm, we sampled a number of reinfections equal to 3% of the study population, with probability weighted according to the estimated timings of recrudescence in Fig. 5 of [66] and the relative frequency of apparent 'reinfection' timing in the current dataset (such that the probabilities of sampling of reinfections, if present, at days 7,14,21,28,35, and 42 were 0.799, 0.100, 0.026, 0.014, 0.049, and 0.012). One site, Ndola in Zambia, was excluded after reclassification of reinfections, since one trial arm no longer contained reinfections and the model could not be fitted. The Figure shows the proportion of patients reinfected during follow up, amongst patients not experiencing recrudescence, after treatment at day 0 with AL (blue) or AS-AQ (green) in each of the 11 trial sites included in this sensitivity analysis. Circles show data with 95% CI, and the lines are the fits of the hidden semi-Markov model in each site. Here, the AL trial arms include in total 1956 individuals, 573 reinfections, and the AS-AQ trial arms, 2001 individuals, 475 reinfections. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_4_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 5 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 5: Figure S2. Relative value of Ag-RDT-led vs NAT-based testing, for averting deaths in a hospital setting. The figure shows the same results as those presented in Fig. 2 in the main text, but here assuming that all patients awaiting a NAT result (whether as part of a NAT-based strategy or for confirmation of Ag-RDT results) were not isolated during this time. Results illustrate qualitatively similar findings to those shown in the main text. In panel (A), in the scenario where Ag-RDT-negative results were confirmed using NAT (red points), 57% of simulations placed the Ag-RDT-led strategy in the favourable region, below the diagonal dashed line. Panels (B, C) show additional sensitivity analyses for these points in particular, as described in Fig. 2. In (C), red lines show 75% NAT availability (vertical line), and 90% sensitivity of clinical judgement (horizontal line). In the lower left quadrant of these lines, an Ag-RDT was favourable over NAT in 85% of simulations. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_5_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 5 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 5: Figure S2. Relative value of Ag-RDT-led vs NAT-based testing, for averting deaths in a hospital setting. The figure shows the same results as those presented in Fig. 2 in the main text, but here assuming that all patients awaiting a NAT result (whether as part of a NAT-based strategy or for confirmation of Ag-RDT results) were not isolated during this time. Results illustrate qualitatively similar findings to those shown in the main text. In panel (A), in the scenario where Ag-RDT-negative results were confirmed using NAT (red points), 57% of simulations placed the Ag-RDT-led strategy in the favourable region, below the diagonal dashed line. Panels (B, C) show additional sensitivity analyses for these points in particular, as described in Fig. 2. In (C), red lines show 75% NAT availability (vertical line), and 90% sensitivity of clinical judgement (horizontal line). In the lower left quadrant of these lines, an Ag-RDT was favourable over NAT in 85% of simulations. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_5_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 5 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 5: Figure S4. Correlation between pfcrt 76T prevalence and pfmdr 86Y prevalence, in the surveys matched to the trial sites according to year and geographic distance (within 1 year and 300 km in the same country as each trial). When more than one molecular marker survey was matched to a trial site, a weighted average prevalence was taken. In some cases, these two molecular markers were assessed in the same matched survey(s), but in other cases matches from different surveys were found. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_5_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 5 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 5: Figure S4. Correlation between pfcrt 76T prevalence and pfmdr 86Y prevalence, in the surveys matched to the trial sites according to year and geographic distance (within 1 year and 300 km in the same country as each trial). When more than one molecular marker survey was matched to a trial site, a weighted average prevalence was taken. In some cases, these two molecular markers were assessed in the same matched survey(s), but in other cases matches from different surveys were found. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_5_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 6 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 6: Figure S3. Relative value of Ag-RDT-led vs NAT-based testing, for averting infections in a hospital setting. The figure shows the same results as those presented in Fig. 3 in the main text, but here assuming that all patients awaiting a NAT result (whether as part of a NAT-based strategy or for confirmation of Ag-RDT results) were not isolated during this time. In panel (A), in the scenario where there was no NAT confirmation of Ag-RDT results (yellow points), 93% of simulations placed the Ag-RDT-led strategy in the favourable region, to the right of the vertical, dashed line. Panels (B, C) show additional sensitivity analyses for these points in particular, as described in Fig. 3. In (C), red lines show a NAT turnaround time of 3 days (vertical line), and a 30% NAT availability (horizontal line). In the upper right quadrant of these lines, an Ag-RDT was favourable over NAT in 69% of simulations. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_6_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 6 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 6: Figure S3. Relative value of Ag-RDT-led vs NAT-based testing, for averting infections in a hospital setting. The figure shows the same results as those presented in Fig. 3 in the main text, but here assuming that all patients awaiting a NAT result (whether as part of a NAT-based strategy or for confirmation of Ag-RDT results) were not isolated during this time. In panel (A), in the scenario where there was no NAT confirmation of Ag-RDT results (yellow points), 93% of simulations placed the Ag-RDT-led strategy in the favourable region, to the right of the vertical, dashed line. Panels (B, C) show additional sensitivity analyses for these points in particular, as described in Fig. 3. In (C), red lines show a NAT turnaround time of 3 days (vertical line), and a 30% NAT availability (horizontal line). In the upper right quadrant of these lines, an Ag-RDT was favourable over NAT in 69% of simulations. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_6_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 6 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 6: Figure S5. As Fig. 5 in the main text, except panels B,C,E and F show impact on clinical incidence in the whole population (rather than 0-5 year old children only). 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_6_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 6 of The duration of chemoprophylaxis against malaria after treatment with artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine and the effects of pfmdr1 86Y and pfcrt 76T: a meta-analysis of individual patient data 
Description Additional file 6: Figure S5. As Fig. 5 in the main text, except panels B,C,E and F show impact on clinical incidence in the whole population (rather than 0-5 year old children only). 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_6_of_The_duration_of_chemoprophy...
 
Title Additional file 7 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 7: Figure S4. Sensitivity analysis to varying prevalence of COVID-19 amongst those being tested. As a focal model output, all figures show the proportion of simulations in which an Ag-RDT was favourable, with different algorithms labelled by the different line colours. Panels A and B show the impact of varying prevalence on deaths and infectious days averted, respectively, in a hospital setting. Panel C shows the impact on infectious days averted in a community setting. Similar to the analysis presented in the main text, we assumed that all individuals were isolated whilst waiting for a NAT result in the hospital setting and that no one isolated whilst awaiting a test result in the community setting. Results illustrate that the proportion favourable remained stable to these alternative assumptions for prevalence. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_7_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 7 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 7: Figure S4. Sensitivity analysis to varying prevalence of COVID-19 amongst those being tested. As a focal model output, all figures show the proportion of simulations in which an Ag-RDT was favourable, with different algorithms labelled by the different line colours. Panels A and B show the impact of varying prevalence on deaths and infectious days averted, respectively, in a hospital setting. Panel C shows the impact on infectious days averted in a community setting. Similar to the analysis presented in the main text, we assumed that all individuals were isolated whilst waiting for a NAT result in the hospital setting and that no one isolated whilst awaiting a test result in the community setting. Results illustrate that the proportion favourable remained stable to these alternative assumptions for prevalence. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_7_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 7 of Understanding the incidence and timing of rabies cases in domestic animals and wildlife in south-east Tanzania in the presence of widespread domestic dog vaccination campaigns 
Description Additional file 7. Estimates of the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) for all species combined under different scenarios. The solid line depicts the median estimate with the 95% credible interval estimates represented by the shaded area. The time window used for estimation of Rt are A 60 days, B 180 days, C and D 120 days. The values for the mean and standard deviation of the prior distribution are both set at 1.0 in A, B and D and at 1.2 in C. All data are used for estimation in A-C (n = 520 cases) whilst a subset of data where all cases are less than 10 km from another case were used in D (n = 426 cases). 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2023 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_7_of_Understanding_the_incidence...
 
Title Additional file 7 of Understanding the incidence and timing of rabies cases in domestic animals and wildlife in south-east Tanzania in the presence of widespread domestic dog vaccination campaigns 
Description Additional file 7. Estimates of the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) for all species combined under different scenarios. The solid line depicts the median estimate with the 95% credible interval estimates represented by the shaded area. The time window used for estimation of Rt are A 60 days, B 180 days, C and D 120 days. The values for the mean and standard deviation of the prior distribution are both set at 1.0 in A, B and D and at 1.2 in C. All data are used for estimation in A-C (n = 520 cases) whilst a subset of data where all cases are less than 10 km from another case were used in D (n = 426 cases). 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2023 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_7_of_Understanding_the_incidence...
 
Title Additional file 8 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 8: Figure S5. Sensitivity analysis to varying Ag-RDT sensitivity and specificity. As a focal model output, all figures show the proportion of simulations in which an Ag-RDT was favourable, with different algorithms labelled by the different line colours. Panels A-C show the sensitivity of Ag-RDT being varied between 75 and 95% across the hospital and community settings, assuming specificity remained fixed at 98%. Panels D-F show the specificity of Ag-RDT being varied between 98 and 100%, assuming sensitivity remained fixed at 80%. Similar to the analysis presented in the main text, we assumed that all individuals were isolated whilst waiting for a NAT result in the hospital setting and that no one isolated whilst awaiting a test result in the community setting. Results illustrate that, in a community setting, increasing Ag-RDT sensitivity increased the favourability of the "Ag-RDT only" and "confirm Ag-RDT negative" strategies (panel C). For example, the favourability of an algorithm that confirms an Ag-RDT negative result increased from 79% to 83% when sensitivity increased from 75% to 95%. Increasing sensitivity had little impact on the "confirm Ag-RDT positive" strategy; since the only costs incurred under a community setting was the cost of a test, a NAT-only strategy was often cheaper and averted more infectious days than the "confirm Ag-RDT positive" strategy (the cost of testing with an Ag-RDT and confirming a positive result with a NAT test makes it costly, and by re-testing a positive result with a NAT, the sensitivity of the algorithm was lower due to the imperfect sensitivity of NAT). Similar to the hospital setting, specificity had little impact on an algorithm's favourability (panel F). 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_8_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 8 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 8: Figure S5. Sensitivity analysis to varying Ag-RDT sensitivity and specificity. As a focal model output, all figures show the proportion of simulations in which an Ag-RDT was favourable, with different algorithms labelled by the different line colours. Panels A-C show the sensitivity of Ag-RDT being varied between 75 and 95% across the hospital and community settings, assuming specificity remained fixed at 98%. Panels D-F show the specificity of Ag-RDT being varied between 98 and 100%, assuming sensitivity remained fixed at 80%. Similar to the analysis presented in the main text, we assumed that all individuals were isolated whilst waiting for a NAT result in the hospital setting and that no one isolated whilst awaiting a test result in the community setting. Results illustrate that, in a community setting, increasing Ag-RDT sensitivity increased the favourability of the "Ag-RDT only" and "confirm Ag-RDT negative" strategies (panel C). For example, the favourability of an algorithm that confirms an Ag-RDT negative result increased from 79% to 83% when sensitivity increased from 75% to 95%. Increasing sensitivity had little impact on the "confirm Ag-RDT positive" strategy; since the only costs incurred under a community setting was the cost of a test, a NAT-only strategy was often cheaper and averted more infectious days than the "confirm Ag-RDT positive" strategy (the cost of testing with an Ag-RDT and confirming a positive result with a NAT test makes it costly, and by re-testing a positive result with a NAT, the sensitivity of the algorithm was lower due to the imperfect sensitivity of NAT). Similar to the hospital setting, specificity had little impact on an algorithm's favourability (panel F). 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_8_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 9 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 9: Figure S6. Sensitivity analysis to patient behaviour in relation to self-isolation, in the community setting. As a focal model output, all figures show the proportion of simulations in which an Ag-RDT was favourable, with different algorithms labelled by the different line colours. Panel A shows the impact of compliance amongst those required to self-isolate after a positive final test result. Panel B shows the impact of test-negative individuals voluntarily self-isolating. This sensitivity analysis was restricted to the community setting as it is likely that hospitals will enforce compliance to isolation guidelines. Results illustrate that increasing the proportion of compliance to isolation recommendations increased the favourability of both "Ag-RDT-only" and "confirm Ag-RDT negative" strategies, from 86% and 68% of simulations being favourable with 50% compliance to 98% and 80% with 100% compliance, respectively. The benefit of an Ag-RDT test in rapidly detecting COVID cases, and hence averting onward transmission, is reduced if these individuals did not isolate. However, the opposite was seen with the "confirm Ag-RDT positive" strategy, with the favourability of the algorithm decreasing from 8% to 0% if compliance doubled from 50% to 100%. Generally, this strategy detected fewer COVID cases than a NAT-based strategy, due to the reduction in overall sensitivity caused by inclusion of NAT confirmation; thus, increasing the proportion of individuals that did comply had a greater effect on a NAT-based strategy than the Ag-RDT strategy, hence increasing the latter's favourability. Similar results were seen for voluntary self-isolation (where false negatives voluntarily self-isolate). 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_9_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Additional file 9 of Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis 
Description Additional file 9: Figure S6. Sensitivity analysis to patient behaviour in relation to self-isolation, in the community setting. As a focal model output, all figures show the proportion of simulations in which an Ag-RDT was favourable, with different algorithms labelled by the different line colours. Panel A shows the impact of compliance amongst those required to self-isolate after a positive final test result. Panel B shows the impact of test-negative individuals voluntarily self-isolating. This sensitivity analysis was restricted to the community setting as it is likely that hospitals will enforce compliance to isolation guidelines. Results illustrate that increasing the proportion of compliance to isolation recommendations increased the favourability of both "Ag-RDT-only" and "confirm Ag-RDT negative" strategies, from 86% and 68% of simulations being favourable with 50% compliance to 98% and 80% with 100% compliance, respectively. The benefit of an Ag-RDT test in rapidly detecting COVID cases, and hence averting onward transmission, is reduced if these individuals did not isolate. However, the opposite was seen with the "confirm Ag-RDT positive" strategy, with the favourability of the algorithm decreasing from 8% to 0% if compliance doubled from 50% to 100%. Generally, this strategy detected fewer COVID cases than a NAT-based strategy, due to the reduction in overall sensitivity caused by inclusion of NAT confirmation; thus, increasing the proportion of individuals that did comply had a greater effect on a NAT-based strategy than the Ag-RDT strategy, hence increasing the latter's favourability. Similar results were seen for voluntary self-isolation (where false negatives voluntarily self-isolate). 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2021 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/figure/Additional_file_9_of_Quantifying_the_potential_v...
 
Title Compiling all publicly available genotype-phenotype data on AMR 
Description Lecture delivered at CMO workshop 2022 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2022 
Impact Received many views 
URL https://www.birs.ca/events/2022/5-day-workshops/22w5186/videos/watch/202211101000-Chindelevitch.html
 
Title Figure S1. from Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies 
Description Examples of six previous and ongoing epidemics, demonstrating the potential for a long 'tail' of cases before eradication. These long tails can occur even when an effective vaccine has been developed. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://rs.figshare.com/articles/Figure_S1_from_Key_questions_for_modelling_COVID-19_exit_strategies...
 
Title Figure S1. from Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies 
Description Examples of six previous and ongoing epidemics, demonstrating the potential for a long 'tail' of cases before eradication. These long tails can occur even when an effective vaccine has been developed. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
URL https://rs.figshare.com/articles/Figure_S1_from_Key_questions_for_modelling_COVID-19_exit_strategies...
 
Title Interpretable machine learning methods for predicting drug resistance 
Description Presentation of my group's work on interpretable ML for drug resistance 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2020 
Impact Many views received 
URL https://www.birs.ca/events/2020/5-day-workshops/20w5222/videos/watch/202011121320-Chindelevitch.html
 
Title Knowledge 
Description Picture of an antenna radio that has been placed in the ground in front of the fundament to a clay house in Zimbabwe. Using a disposable camera, a young man who calls himself Knowledge took the picture, which was part of a response to potential solution models for the prevention of HIV among young people in Zimbabwe. 
Type Of Art Image 
Year Produced 2021 
Impact Winner of the Danish National Research Foundation's Photo Competition 2021 
URL https://dg.dk/en/the-picture-of-a-radio-photographed-with-a-disposable-camera-wins-1st-prize-in-the-...
 
Title MOESM1 of Mapping the baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis across Nigeria 
Description Additional file 1: Figure S1. Cross-validation of the predicted lymphatic filariasis prevalence using a subsample of 25% of the observed data. Predicted prevalence values are plotted against observed prevalence. Those plotted in red had observations outside of the 95% prediction intervals while those plotted in blue had observations inside the 95% prediction intervals. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2019 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/MOESM1_of_Mapping_the_baseline_prevalence_of_lymphatic_...
 
Title MOESM1 of Mapping the baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis across Nigeria 
Description Additional file 1: Figure S1. Cross-validation of the predicted lymphatic filariasis prevalence using a subsample of 25% of the observed data. Predicted prevalence values are plotted against observed prevalence. Those plotted in red had observations outside of the 95% prediction intervals while those plotted in blue had observations inside the 95% prediction intervals. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2019 
URL https://springernature.figshare.com/articles/MOESM1_of_Mapping_the_baseline_prevalence_of_lymphatic_...
 
Description The COVID-19 Response Team at Imperial College London have been at the forefront globally in providing analytical capacity and modelling to support government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. During the first quarter of 2020 the team provided regular epidemiological and modelling updates to UK government via its scientific committee SAGE, including key evidence in March 2020 demonstrating the need to move to a suppression strategy to avoid the NHS becoming overwhelmed that led to the first UK national lockdown. Weekly estimates of the reproduction number R, the epidemic growth rate and medium-term projections have been used to support UK government and NHS planning. Analysis of the novel variant in December 2020 demonstrated its increased transmissibility leading directly to the tightening of restrictions. Internationally, the team's work has supported WHO policy development and other country responses to the pandemic.
First Year Of Impact 2020
Sector Education,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal

Economic

Policy & public services

 
Description ASCEND Programme - UK AID programme funded by FCDO
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Advice to individual governments in Africa and South East Asia on how to manage COVID-19 in the context of other disease programmes.
 
Description Academy of Medical Science reports
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Professor Azra Ghani led the modelling inputs for both reports. The reports were utilised across government departments for planning for healthcare in UK.
 
Description Active case finding in South India
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Modelling analysis helped local authorities in their decision making for how to implement a highly resource intensive activity (active case finding) in a more efficient way. Guidance allowed a 20% increase in numbers of x-rays being diagnosed for TB. Awaiting further data to assess further impact on patient outcomes. Update 2021: Paper under preparation
 
Description Adoption and Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for COVID-19 (03-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 12 on 3 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891850/S0035_SAGE12_Current_Data_on_COVID-19_Interventions_Annex_1_to_Potential_impact_of_behavioural_and_social_interventions_on_an_epidemic_of_Covid19_in_the_UK.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8918...
 
Description Advice given to UK government on Brazil variant (Nuno Faria)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Advice given to UK govt on potential for increased transmissibility and/or immune escape of Brazil variant. Advice given led to ban on all flights from South America and Portugal and led to the introduction of mandatory hotel quarantine upon arrival in the UK. Widely discussed in media - policy change had a considerable impact on the UK aerospace industry and has been an effective measure to control the spread of COVID-19 in the UK.
 
Description Advice given to WHO and Public Health England on P1 variant lineage (Nuno Faria)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Presented evidence to WHO and advice given to Public Health England on P1 variant and how guidelines should be amended to adapt COVID-19 response to changing variants. Advice given and awareness raised will lead to a decrease in COVID-19 transmission globally and will contribute to decreasing case and death rates, and increased control measures within the UK to ensure the success of COVID-19 restrictions
 
Description Advise to Chinese government to set up national procurement
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Centralized national procurement process for pharmaceuticals was established in China based on this advise, launched in 2018.
 
Description Advising on global polio policy to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Guidance on vaccine choice during polio eradication endgame, release of global stockpile, development of a new oral poliovirus vaccine 2009-2020 WHO SAGE polio vaccine working group 2016 onwards - participation in CRTT - modelling committee for polio eradication
 
Description Advisory Board of Parasites & Vectors
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Shaping up the scope of the journal; engagement with contributors; advising the Editor-in-Chief
 
Description Advisory research support to the Center for Global Development on the Return on Investment of Pandemic Preparedness
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact a report was prepared for the G20 panel, see https://pandemic-financing.org/report/foreword/
URL https://pandemic-financing.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/G20-HLIP-Report.pdf
 
Description Analysis of Transmissibility Based on Genomics (15-12-2020). Considered at SAGE 74 on 22 December 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/954930/s0996-analysis-of-transmissibility-genomics.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9549...
 
Description Areas of Intervention ('Local Lockdown') Measures to Control Outbreaks of COVID during the National Release Phase (30-07-2020). Considered at SAGE 49 on 30 July 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909388/s0660-spi-b-areas-of-intervention-measures-outbreaks-300720-sage-49.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9093...
 
Description Autumn and Winter 2021 to 2022 - Potential COVID-19 Epidemic Trajectories - PART 1 (13-10-2021). Considered at SAGE 96 on 14 October 2021; 2021:1-22.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027920/S1386_SPI-M_potential_winter_trajectories_Imperial_College.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027...
 
Description Autumn and Winter 2021 to 2022 - Potential COVID-19 Epidemic Trajectories - PART 2 (13-10-2021). Considered at SAGE 96 on 14 October 2021; 2021:1-22.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1029646/S1391_Imperial_College_London_autumn_and_winter_2021_to_2022___potential_COVID-19_epidemic_trajectories___Part_2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1029...
 
Description Awarded role of Co-convenor for the National Infected Blood Enquiry (Katharina Hauck)
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
 
Description Bogota Secretary of Health Mathematical Modelling Course Delivery
Geographic Reach South America 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Guideline Title 2018 BASHH UK national guideline for the management of infection with Mycoplasma genitalium
Description British Association for Sexual Health and HIV guidelines on public health management of Mycoplasma genitalium and antimicrobial resistance
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in clinical guidelines
URL https://www.bashh.org/news/news/bashh-launches-new-nice-accredited-guidelines-to-help-prevent-mycopl...
 
Description CAB-LA mathematical modelling working group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description COVID-19 variants advisory board with Moderna
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Providing epidemiological background on variants of concern which supports Moderna's strategy for vaccine development for COVID-19
 
Description Chair of Oriole Global Health Limited
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Chair of OGH Limited which is helping UK Aid and DFID deliver the ASCEND project for the control of NTDs in resource poor settings.
URL https://orioleglobalhealth.com
 
Description Chair of UNAIDs reference group on estimates modelling projections
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Improvements to global data on HIV/AIDs which are used for advocacy for resources for HIV treatments an interventions to monitor progress and accountability toward global HIV strategies. Data used to allocate budgets by national govts, PEPFAR and Global Fund
 
Description Chair of the COVID-19 modelling guidance group for the Global Fund (Tim Hallett)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Led analytical work of the Global Fund to quantify the impact that COVID-19 has had on the portfolio of countries in 2020 and the following 2 years Analytical work has contributed to acute awareness of potential impact of COVID-19 on other disease (HIV, TB, Malaria) and a recognition of how the impact would extend to post pandemic years.
 
Description Citation in Blackett review
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/computational-modelling-blackett-review
 
Description Citation in GAVI decision to support HBV birth dose
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://www.gavi.org/our-alliance/strategy/vaccine-investment-strategy
 
Description Citation in SAGE document (NERVTAG) 27 Jan 2021
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact There is currently insufficient evidence to assess whether variant P.1 is associated with any change in disease severity, but the information provided in this document has been used to guide policy and decision-making for international leaders.
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55655388
 
Description Citation in WHO Policy Document - COVID-19 variants
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---23-march-2021
 
Description Citation in WHO consolidated guidelines in HIV testing
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Modelling expertise has contributed to guideline development and publication in WHO guidelines and policy briefs. Guidelines have led to changes in services - diagnosis of HIV. Presentations on work have been given to multiple countries (Cameroon, Kenya and Malawi) https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/978-92-4-155058-1 https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-CDS-HIV-19.31 https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-CDS-HIV-19.34
URL https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/978-92-4-155058-1
 
Description Citation in WHO policy document 'Considerations for implementing and adjusting public health and social measures in the context of COVID-19: interim guidance, 4 November 2020'
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Citation in WHO policy document. Implementation of guidance has resulted in decisions made at country levels to assist in response to COVID-19 pandemic - actions taken by countries include implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions
URL https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/336374
 
Description Citation in WHO report: Genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 (Erik Volz)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Has impacted the ways in which nations are responding to COVID-19 (setting up of surveillance systems)
URL https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/338480/9789240018440-eng.pdf
 
Description Citation in WHO weekly epidemiological records
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WER9647
 
Description Citation in recommendations to African Union Member States on the epidemic modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://africacdc.org/download/statement-of-guidance-and-recommendations-to-african-union-member-sta...
 
Description Citation of and use of R Package EpiEstim by multiple governments to support tracking of COVID-19 pandemic and support decision making
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Improved hospital management during COVID-19 pandemic (assisted in management of human resources)
 
Description Co-wrote a WHO protocol for assessing non-inferiority of bednets and indoor residual sprays
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact We have devised a protocol to enable novel vector control products that are part of an existing intervention class to be recommended by the WHO (and therefore purchased by the Global Fund) without the need to go through expensive randomised control trials. Update 2020 - The policy was refined and accepted by the Malaria Programme Advisory Comittee at the WHO. New bednets are currently being distributed across Africa which are predicted to have a significant public health benefit to the people using them.
 
Description Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Creation of vaccines for COVID-19 and Ebola
 
Description Collaboration with WHO Global Malaria Programme
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact This publication was cited in new policy guidance for the use of current rapid diagnostic tests for malaria, including guidance on when to switch test type if resistance mutations are present.
URL https://www.who.int/malaria/mpac/en/
 
Description Commonwealth Heads of Government Malaria Committment
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
URL https://www.malariasummit.com/
 
Description Comparison of different brands of bed nets
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Determine methods to ensure that bed nets procured by governments and charitable organisations are of an efficient standard
 
Description Confidential report to Ministry of Health Singapore regarding number if imported cases from China
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Estimates produced were used to support COVID-19 response in Singapore and used to evaluate the decision to impose travel restrictions in Singapore.
 
Description Confidential reports to Ministry of Health and National Institutes of Health Italy
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Confidential advice given to Italian Ministry of Health and Italian National Institute of Health which has led to implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and closure of schools and businesses
 
Description Confidential reports to support COVID-19 response in Philippines
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Contribution to tracking of reproductive number of COVID-19 in the Philippines
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (02-06-2021). Considered at SAGE 91 on 3 June 2021; 2021:1-12.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993321/S1267_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9933...
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (03-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 79 on 4 February 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/962824/s1073-spi-m-o-consensus-statement-030221.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9628...
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (03-06-2020). Considered at SAGE 40 on 4 June 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/897526/S0471_SAGE_40_200603_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8975...
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (08-09-2021). Considered at SAGE 95 on 9 September 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017129/S1376_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017...
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (10-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 80 on 4 February 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963368/S1096_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement_on_COVID-19.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9633...
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (19-05-2021). Considered by CSA and DCMO on 20 May 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993315/S1248_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9933...
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (21-04-2021). Considered at SAGE 87 on 22 April 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984091/S1205_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9840...
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (22-12-2021). Considered at SAGE 101 on 23 December 2021; 2021:1-8.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1053755/SAGE101_S1460_SPI-M_O_consensus_statement.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1053...
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (24-03-2021). Considered at SAGE 84 on 25 March 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/976328/S1164_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9763...
 
Description Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (30-06-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 1 July 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1000410/S1298_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1000...
 
Description Consensus Statment - Housing, Household Transmission and Ethnicity: For SAGE Meeting (26-11-2020). Considered at SAGE 70 on 26 November 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/943178/S0923_housing_household_transmission_and_ethnicity.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9431...
 
Description Consensus View on COVID-19 (25-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 19 on 26 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/887470/26-spi-m-o-working-group-scenario-planning-consensus-view-25032020.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8874...
 
Description Consensus View on Potential Relaxing of Social Distancing Measures (04-05-2020). Considered at SAGE 33 on 5 May 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888759/S0313_SAGE33_Consensus_for_SPI-M_on_transition_strategies.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8887...
 
Description Consensus View on the Potential Relaxing of Social Distancing Measures (04-05-2020). Considered at SAGE 33 on 5 May 2020; 2020:1-4.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888759/S0313_SAGE33_Consensus_for_SPI-M_on_transition_strategies.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8887...
 
Description Consensus View: 13th April Review of Social Distancing Measures (01-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 22 on 2 April 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888761/S0406_SAGE22_200401_SPI-M_consensus_view_on_social_distancing_options_for_SAGE.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8887...
 
Description Considerations for Potential Impact of Plan B Measures (13-10-2021). Considered at SAGE 96 on 14 October 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027586/S1393_SPI-B_SPI-M_EMG_Considerations_for_potential_impact_of_Plan_B_measures_13_October_2021.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027...
 
Description Consultation on Zimbabwe COVID-19 response
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Modelling support to Zimbabwe Ministry of Health led to implementation on national lockdown and introduction of non pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in Zimbabwe
 
Description Contribution to Kenya's National Strategic Plan for TB control
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Contribution to UNAIDs guidelines on HIV prevention cascades
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Not yet recognised but will provide a framework for improved implementation of HIV prevention methods
URL https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/JC3038_creating-hiv-prevention-cascades_en.pd...
 
Guideline Title HBV prevention of mother-child transmission
Description Contribution to and citation in WHO guideline for HBV prevention of mother-child transmission
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in clinical guidelines
 
Description Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID19) Intervention Strategies (16-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 16 on 16 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893632/S0103_SAGE22_20200401_Imperial_Effect_of_Relaxing_Current_Measures.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8936...
 
Description Current Research in Parasitology and Vector borne diseases
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Published peer reviewed journal contributes to the advancement of scientific knowledge
 
Description Delta (B.1.617.2) Transmission in England - Risk Factors and Transmission Advantage (01-06-2021). Considered at SAGE 91 on 3 June 2021; 2021:1-14.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993159/S1270_IMPERIAL_B.1.617.2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9931...
 
Description Design and teaching on Global Master in Public Health
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact The Global Master in Public Health attracts postgraduate students across from health care, public and private health organization, etc. I have led the design and taught with fellow academics the policy impact evaluation modules of the master program. In doing so, the knowledge and skills of the students, mostly from the active workforce, will have improved, i.e. an impact is knowledge transfer.
URL https://www.coursera.org/degrees/global-mph-imperial
 
Description Directing London Centre for NTD research - Helping deliver impact in the control of infectious diseases in resource poor settings
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Creation of an evidence base of how best to control NTDs. Influence on WHO guidelines for disease control and funding by philanthropic organisations, (GATES and CIFF). Guidelines hope to improve health in resource poor settings.
URL https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2013/ntd_research_launch.html
 
Description EU policy on banning trade in vector species infected with Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans fungus
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Biosecurity-relevant policy on banning the import of vector species with a view to stopping the introduction of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans into the EU
URL https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32018D0320&from=EN
 
Description Effect of Relaxing Current Measures (02-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 22 on 2 April 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893632/S0103_SAGE22_20200401_Imperial_Effect_of_Relaxing_Current_Measures.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8936...
 
Description Elimination Scenario Planning Exercise with Senegal & The Gambia
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Supported by The Global Fund, in 2016-2017 we undertook three workshops to support malaria country programme planning with The Gambia and Senegal. The last of these, in March 2017, was a joint workshop between the two programmes in which we coordinated discussions surrounding cross-border collaboration between the two countries. Our role in supporting the establishment of this new collaboration was acknowledged at the Malaria Summit held ahead of the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting by the President of The Gambia (see URL below - we are mentioned in the film). A formal collaboration between the two countries was signed in January 2019.
URL https://www.malariasummit.com/
 
Description Epidemics Analysis, Modelling and Response Short Course, Bogota, 11-15 December 2017
Geographic Reach South America 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact This short course has been the first of a series of capacity building activities in Latin America about mathematical modelling for infectious disease analysis. The course was done in collaboration between Imperial College London, R Epidemics Consortium and Universidad Nacional de Colombia. The course received abot 620 applications from which we selected 45 participants. The course provided capacity building and skills improvement for analysing data of infectious diseases.
URL https://epicoursebogota.netlify.app/
 
Description Epidemiology Modelling Review Group: Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (01-09-2021). Considered at SAGE 95 on 9 September 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017244/S1361_EMRG_Consensus_Statement.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017...
 
Description Evaluating England's Roadmap out of Lockdown (18-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 81 on 18 February 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963440/S1129__Unlocking__Roadmap_Scenarios_for_England_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9634...
 
Description Evaluating England's Roadmap out of Lockdown (30-03-2021). Considered at SAGE 85 on 31 March 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1000511/S1183_SPI-M_Imperial.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1000...
 
Description Evaluating the Roadmap out of Lockdown - Modelling Step 4 of the Roadmap in the Context of B.1.617.2 (Delta) (09-06-2021). Considered at SAGE 92 on 9 June 2021; 2021:1-41.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993427/S1289_Imperial_Roadmap_Step_4.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9934...
 
Description Evaluating the Roadmap out of Lockdown for England: Modelling the Delayed Step 4 of the Roadmap in the Context of the Delta Variant (07-07-2021). Considered at SAGE 93 on 7 July 2021; 2021:1-33.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001177/S1303_Imperial_College_London_Evaluating_the_Roadmap_out_of_Lockdown_for_England_modelling_the_delayed_step_4.2_of_the_roadmap_in_the_context_of_the_Delta_variant__7_July_2021__1_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001...
 
Description Evaluating the Roadmap out of Lockdown: Step 3 (05-05-2021). Considered at SAGE 88 on 5 May 2021; 2021:1-27.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984688/S1228_Imperial_Evaluating_the_Roadmap_out_of_Lockdown_Step_3.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9846...
 
Description Evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
URL https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/impact-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-covid-19-...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support COVID-19 response (genomics)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Senior advisory group at MRC-GIDA have presented to UK government on multiple occasions to assist COVID-19 efforts nationally. Evidence provided has included: Modelling of worst case scenarios (led to introduction of national NPIs and lockdown measures) Assessed the effectiveness of COVID-19 interventions internationally Assessed the international research evidence Report submitted: https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/16th-April-2020-Report-Covid-19-Genomics-Consortium-UK-COG-UK.pdf https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/25th-June-2020-Report-COVID-19-Genomics-UK-COG-UK-Consortium.pdf
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response (epidemiology and modelling): UK response December 2020 - Phylodynamic analysis of new variants
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Towards the end of 2020 rapid research was undertaken to evaluate the significance of a new variant of SARS-Cov-2 that had emerged in the UK, with phylodynamic analysis coupled with epidemiological analysis demonstrating significantly increased transmissibility of the new variant of concern. Submitted for publication: Volz et al. (2021) Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: Insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data. medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.30.20249034. In December 2020, phylodynamic analysis provided the first estimates of increased transmissibility of the new Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC) of up to 70%, the figure cited by the Prime Minister in his statement on 19th December that led to the decision to put more regions of the UK into Tier 4 restriction and eventually the 3rd UK national lockdown in January 2021.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-19-december...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: AMS Report - RWC projections (UK response May - December 2020)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact The Imperial team have developed Reasonable Worst-Case (RWC) outputs for an independent report commissioned by the Chief Scientific Advisor and produced by the Academy of Medical Sciences, highlighting the need to prepare for a challenging winter period.
URL https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/prepare-now-for-a-winter-covid-19-peak-warns-academy-of-medical-sci...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: Reasonable worst case (RWC) projections (UK response May - December 2020)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact The Imperial team have provided medium-term projections of the UK COVID-19 epidemic released by UK government and to support government departments in the form of "Reasonable Worst-Case (RWC)" projections.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-covid-19-preparatory-analysis-long-term-scenarios...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: Report 9 (UK early response Jan-Apr 2020)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Whilst multiple UK teams contributed to the modelling evidence underpinning the UK lockdown that occurred in March 2020, "Report 9" [Ferguson NM et al. (2020) Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482] was one of the most globally influential with the highest ever global score for impact in the Altmetric database (63,840 mentions as of January 1st 2021). The policy report summarised scenarios for NPIs developed in close collaboration with SAGE and the Government Office for Science - including case isolation in the home, household quarantine, isolation of the elderly and closure of schools and universities. The results demonstrated that mitigation (slowing but not interrupting epidemic spread) would result in the UK health service being over-whelmed and that to suppress transmission would require social distancing to be implemented across the population alongside isolation of cases and household quarantine. Results contained in this report were shared with SAGE, the CSA, CMO, the NHS executive and Downing Street in the days preceding the first announcement from the UK government of a move to a suppression strategy on 16 March 2020 [D] that subsequently led to the first UK lockdown on 23 March 2020. The widespread global media coverage of Report 9 generated considerable global impact as evidenced by a drop in mobility from 17th March determined using Google mobility data (https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/).
URL http://www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-c...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: Report 9 - SAGE Meeting 16 (1) (UK early response Jan-Apr 2020)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact "Report 9" [Ferguson NM et al. (2020) Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482]. Results contained in this report were shared with SAGE, the CSA, CMO, the NHS executive and Downing Street in the days preceding the first announcement from the UK government of a move to a suppression strategy on 16 March 2020 [D] that subsequently led to the first UK lockdown on 23 March 2020. Key government and SAGE documents informing the move to a suppression strategy, including Meeting 16, 16th March 2020.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-npis-to-reduce...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: Report 9 - SAGE Meeting 16 (2) (UK early response Jan-Apr 2020)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact "Report 9" [Ferguson NM et al. (2020) Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482]. Results contained in this report were shared with SAGE, the CSA, CMO, the NHS executive and Downing Street in the days preceding the first announcement from the UK government of a move to a suppression strategy on 16 March 2020 [D] that subsequently led to the first UK lockdown on 23 March 2020. Key government and SAGE documents informing the move to a suppression strategy, including Meeting 16, 16th March 2020.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid19-intervention-strategies
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: Report 9 - SAGE Meeting 17 (UK early response Jan-Apr 2020)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact "Report 9" [Ferguson NM et al. (2020) Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482]. Results contained in this report were shared with SAGE, the CSA, CMO, the NHS executive and Downing Street in the days preceding the first announcement from the UK government of a move to a suppression strategy on 16 March 2020 [D] that subsequently led to the first UK lockdown on 23 March 2020. Key government and SAGE documents informing the move to a suppression strategy, including Meeting 17, 18th March 2020.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/timing-of-the-introduction-of-school-closure-for-covid-19...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: SAGE Meeting 10 (UK early response Jan-April 2020).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact During February 2020, several Imperial College COVID-19 reports submitted to SAGE (meetings 9, 10, 12 and 13 directly informed SAGE advice to government. These include evidence of the potential impact of a range of NPIs - including banning of large gatherings, school closures and isolation of the elderly.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/potential-effect-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-on-a...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: SAGE Meeting 12 (UK early response Jan-April 2020).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact During February 2020, several Imperial College COVID-19 reports submitted to SAGE (meetings 9, 10, 12 and 13 directly informed SAGE advice to government. These include evidence of the potential impact of a range of NPIs - including banning of large gatherings, school closures and isolation of the elderly.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/adoption-and-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-f...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: SAGE Meeting 13 (UK early response Jan-April 2020).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact During February 2020, several Imperial College COVID-19 reports submitted to SAGE (meetings 9, 10, 12 and 13 directly informed SAGE advice to government. These include evidence of the potential impact of a range of NPIs - including banning of large gatherings, school closures and isolation of the elderly.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/timing-local-triggering-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventio...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: SAGE Meeting 9 (UK early response Jan-April 2020).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact During February 2020, several Imperial College COVID-19 reports submitted to SAGE (meetings 9, 10, 12 and 13 directly informed SAGE advice to government. These include evidence of the potential impact of a range of NPIs - including banning of large gatherings, school closures and isolation of the elderly.
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8917...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: Summary of scientific evidence supporting the UK government response (UK early response Jan-April 2020).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Imperial College research on the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 and modelling of potential mitigation options in a UK context formed a central piece of evidence underpinning the UK government response during the first 4 months of the pandemic. The Imperial team was cited in a summary of scientific evidence supporting the response to coronavirus published on 26th June 2020 which includes a unique section on "Imperial College Reports" [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/covid-19-reports/] including the first 8 online reports (including estimates of the early-scale of the potential scale of the epidemic in Wuhan, and the first estimates of transmissibility and severity) and reference [Verity R et al. (2020) Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 20(6):669-677. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7] which provided the most robust estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR). These latter estimates were critical during the early stages of the response in determining, alongside estimates of the reproduction number made in earlier reports, the potential magnitude of an unmitigated epidemic (~500,000 deaths) and therefore the need to act to contain transmission of the virus.
URL http://www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-c...
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: UK Government Consensus Statement on Mass Testing (UK response May - December 2020)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact As testing capacity increased in the UK and NHS Test and Trace was established, Imperial research [Grassly NC, Pons-Salort M, Parker EPK et al. (2020) Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 20(12):1381-1389. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30630-7] directly informed the policy and UK Government Consensus Statement on Mass Testing.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tfms-consensus-statement-on-mass-testing-27-august-2020
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: UK Government Coronavirus Action Plan (UK early response Jan-April 2020).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Imperial College research on the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 and modelling of potential mitigation options in a UK context formed a central piece of evidence underpinning the UK government response during the first 4 months of the pandemic. The Imperial team was cited in the UK Government Coronavirus Action Plan published on 3 March 2020.
URL http://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-action-plan;
 
Description Evidence to UK government to support Covid-19 response: Weekly R estimates to SPI-M-O (UK response May - December 2020)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact From May 2020 onwards, the UK government, via SAGE, has published weekly estimates of the reproduction number, R, and associated growth rates [ https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk], of which the Imperial team is one of four contributing modelling groups. These estimates, provided as part of a SPI-M-O "consensus statement", are shared across government departments, the NHS and local resilience forums and are used widely for planning purposes and to support local and national responses, thereby directly impacting the course of the UK epidemic.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronaviru...
 
Description FDA approval of moxidectin to treat human onchocerciasis
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Work is ongoing to allow moxidectin to be rolled out as a mass drug administration strategy in Africa
 
Description GAVI Vaccine Investment Strategy
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Membership of the GAVI Vaccine Investment Strategy Committee which provided the scientific input for the recommendation of new vaccines to be supported by GAVI in the upcoming replenishment. This has a direct impact on worldwide childhood vaccination strategies.
URL https://www.gavi.org/about/strategy/vaccine-investment-strategy/
 
Description Growth, population distribution and immune escape of Omicron in England, 15 December 2021
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Part of the data that is considered by the UK govt when making decisions in response to the rise of new variants and the impacts this will have on public well being
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/imperial-college-london-report-49-growth-population-distr...
 
Description HPCs-UNAIDS
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
 
Description HPCs-Zimbabwe
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
 
Description Health system strategic plan in Malawi
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description How Do Contact Patterns Affect VOC Transmission Advantage? (14-01-2021). Available at SAGE 76 on 14 January 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067152/S1036_Imperial_-_B117_-_NPIs_and_transmission_advantage__1_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067...
 
Description Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand (03-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 12 on 3 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891862/S0057_SAGE16_Imperial_Impact_of_NPIs_to_reduce_Mortality_and_Healthcare_Demand.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8918...
 
Description Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand (16-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 16 on 16 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891862/S0057_SAGE16_Imperial_Impact_of_NPIs_to_reduce_Mortality_and_Healthcare_Demand.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8918...
 
Description Informing strategic priorities for TB elimination in Mumbai, India
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
 
Description Insights from Early Vaccination Modelling (09-12-2020). Considered at SAGE 72 on 10 December 2020; 2020:1-8.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/954908/s0959-spi-m-o-early-insights-vaccines.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9549...
 
Description Interagency Liaison Group on Biodiversity and Health
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
URL https://www.cbd.int/health/ilg-health/
 
Description Internaional Response: Country level support
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact The team directly supported control efforts in 10 countries (Columbia, India, Indonesia, Italy, Malawi, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, the United States and Zimbabwe) providing local model reports through academic and public health partners to support government responses. Example: Announcement by New York Governor's Office of Research Partnership with Imperial College London.
URL https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-state-bring...
 
Description International Course - Outbreak Analysis and Modelling for Public Health June 2019
Geographic Reach South America 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact This was the second version of a course on mathematical modelling applied to infectious diseases in Latin America. The course reached 498 person interested from wich we selected 45 participants from 4 countries in Latin America: Colombia, Panamá, Peru, and Venezuela. The course was co-organised by Imperial College London, R Epidemics Consortium, Universidad Javeriana and National Institute of Health in Colombia. The course provided capacity building and skills improvement for analysing data of infectious diseases.
URL https://www.ins.gov.co/modelamiento/modelamiento.html
 
Description International response: Vaccine modelling
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact The team has developed models to explore the impact of vaccination in the UK and globally, demonstrating that even partially effective vaccines can have a significant public health impact and that global allocation of limited vaccine supply according to population size is near-optimal to equitably reduce the impact of the pandemic. Research has contributed to the WHO SAGE Roadmap for Prioritizing Uses of COVID-19 vaccines in the context of limited supply. Submitted for publication: Hogan et al. (2020) Report 33 - Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine. doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/82822 [https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-33-vaccine/].
URL https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-33-vaccine/
 
Description Intervention Options and Testing Needs for Long-Term Suppression of COVID-19 Transmission (28-04-2020).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067140/S0249_Imperial_Exit_strategies_incl_age.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067...
 
Description Investigation of Novel SARS-COV-2 Variant Variant of Concern 202012/01. Available at SAGE 74 on 22 December 2020; 2020:1-11.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/959438/Technical_Briefing_VOC_SH_NJL2_SH2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9594...
 
Description Invited participation in European Commission & Joint Research Centre teleconferences
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Local Interventions and Spatial Scales. Considered at SAGE 50 on 6 August 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926927/S0677_SPI-M-O_Local_interventions_and_spatial_scales.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9269...
 
Description Long Term Winter Scenarios Preparatory Working Analysis (31-10-2020). Available to CSA on 31 October 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/938967/201031_SPI-M_preparatory_analysis_long_term_scenarios.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9389...
 
Description Low Critical Care Capacity and High Severity of COVID-19 Mean There Is Little Functional Difference between Successful "Flattening the Curve" and Ongoing Containment (16-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 16 on 16 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891912/S0054_SAGE16_Imperial_Mitigation_Strategies.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8919...
 
Description MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analsysis. Age Dependence in Infection and Fatality Risk (11-02-2020). Available at SAGE 6 on 11 February 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067136/S0177.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067...
 
Description Malaria Policy Advisory Committee
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact This committee provides advice directly to the WHO Global Malaria Programme on all topics relevant to malaria control and elimination. WHO guidance has direct impact on the policies adopted by national government, which over the past year has included amendment of treatment protocols, advice on current and new prevention interventions, allocation of global donor funding and certification of malaria elimination. UPDATE 2022 - still active member of advisory committee, including work supporting recent recommendations for first malaria vaccine
URL https://www.who.int/malaria/mpac/en/
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (01-09-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 2 September 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016438/S1358_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (01-12-2021). Considered by dCSA on 2 December 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039426/S1428_SPI-M-O_Medium_Term_Projections_1_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (02-06-2021). Considered at SAGE 91 on 3 June 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/994670/S1268_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9946...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (03-03-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 4 March 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/970807/S1140_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9708...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (04-08-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 5 August 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1010616/S1352_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1010...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (05-05-2021). Considered at SAGE 88 on 5 May 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/988229/S1225_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections__1_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9882...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (07-04-2021). Considered at SAGE 86 on 8 April 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/979869/S1188_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9798...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (08-09-2021). Considered at SAGE 95 on 9 September 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017130/S1377_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (09-03-2022). Considered by dCSA on 10 March 2022; 2022.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1064591/SAGE105e_9_March_2022_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1064...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (11-08-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 12 August 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012425/S1353_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (12-05-2021). Considered at SAGE 89 on 13 May 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/989812/S1238_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9898...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (14-04-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 15 April 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/982495/S1203_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9824...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (14-07-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 15 July 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005158/S1320_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (15-09-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 16 September 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1022466/SAGE95b_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1022...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (17-03-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 18 March 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/977250/S1178_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9772...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (17-11-2021). Considered by dCSA and CMO on 18 November 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact ttps://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1035667/S1421_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections_SAGE.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1035...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (19-05-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 20 May 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/991211/S1249_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9912...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (21-04-2021). Considered at SAGE 87 on 22 April 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984019/S1206_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9840...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (22-09-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 23 September 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1022230/SAGE95c_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1022...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (23-02-2022). Considered by dCSA on 25 February 2022; 2022.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1064588/SAGE105c_23_Feb_2022_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1064...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (23-06-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 23 June 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1000611/S1297_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1000...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (24-03-2021). Considered at SAGE 84 on 25 March 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/976329/S1165_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9763...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (24-11-2021). Considered by dCSA on 25 November 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1038077/S1426_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1038...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (25-08-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 26 August 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016434/S1357_SAGE94f_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections__1_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (26-05-2021). Considered at SAGE 90 on 27 May 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/992320/S1252_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9923...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (28-07-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 29 July 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1010603/S1346_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1010...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (29-09-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 30 September 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025239/SAGE95d_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections (30-06-2021). Considered by CSA and CMO on 1 July 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1000488/S1299_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1000...
 
Description Medium-Term Projections and Model Descriptions (31-10-2020). Available evidence to SAGE; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/938965/201031_SPI-M-O_medium_term_projections_explainer.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9389...
 
Description Member IVAG (in vitro advisory group)- NICE
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact This working group advised on development of a framework for evaluation of effectiveness of monoclonal antibody therapies.
 
Description Member of Executive Management of Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description Member of Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) bOPV Cessation Planning Team
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Member of Global Polio Eradication Initiative - Environmental Surveillance Implementation working group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Member of Global Polio Eradication Initiative - Environmental Surveillance Implementation working group Contributed analysis of surveillance data Recommendations were made by the group based on results of analysis of data. Recommendations led to changes in best practice for environmental surveillance
 
Description Member of Global Polio Eradication Initiative - nOPV2 genetic characterisation sub-group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Member of Global Polio Eradication Initiative - nOPV2 genetic characterisation sub-group Contributed analysis of data to inform surveillance during vaccine roll out
 
Description Member of Global Polio Eradication Initiative cessation risk task team
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Member of Global Polio Eradication Initiative cessation risk task team Contributed analysis of surveillance data Recommendations made based on results of data analysis to improve best practice of outbreak response
 
Description Member of Influenza Incidence Analytics Group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Member of SPI-M - Series of reports for SPI-M on vaccination roll-out and restriction lifting and their impact on COVID-19 in the UK
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Reports submitted to SPI-M were used by SAGE to support evidence-based decision making for UK government for Roadmap out of lockdown
URL http://tinyurl.com/2bed8uur
 
Description Member of Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), COVID-19
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Presented multiple reports on modelling COVID-19 to SAGE. Reports have led to implementation of social distancing, changes to NHS services and business operations nationally and have averted COVID cases and death numbers. Reports available: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies
 
Description Member of Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), COVID-19
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Membership of SPI-M ( Professors Peter White, Neil Ferguson, Steven Riley, Nick Grassly and Drs Samir Bhatt and Marc Baguelin) Presented multiple reports on modelling COVID-19 to SPI-M. Reports have contributed to implementation of social distancing, changes to NHS services and business operations nationally and have averted COVID cases and death numbers. Reports have aldo contributed to the planning and successful roll out of the COVID-19 vaccination programme. Reports available: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-pandemic-influenza-subgroup-on-modelling
 
Description Member of WHO Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Tuberculosis
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Membership of guidance committee - have contributed mathematical modelling expertise Recommendations have informed WHO policy on mitigating COVID disruptions on TB and on strategies for 'building back stronger'.
URL https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/report-of-the-20th-meetingwho-strategic-and-technical-adviso...
 
Description Member of WHO committee for recommendation for screening and treatment for cervical cancer
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Involvement in WHO committee. Have informed WHO guidelines on cervical cancer screening. Publications ongoing. Update 2022: New guidelines: Publication: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240030824
URL https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240014107
 
Description Member of WHO guideline development group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact The results from this GDG will be completed and published later in 2023. They will form part of official WHO guidelines for the use of new diagnostic tools, and will be adopted worldwide.
 
Description Member of WHO-SAGE COVID-19 vaccines working group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Professor Nick Grassly is a member of the WHO SAGE COVID-19 vaccine working group. The group approves and make recommendations for COVID-19 vaccines. These recommendations are used by countries to support their immunisation policies
 
Description Member of a guidance committee - Gavi Vaccine Investment Strategy 2023
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Member of expert group for MoD (Confidential) - ongoing as of 2021
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description Member of the Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic Filariasis elimination committee in Cameroon and providing advice to the PNLO (National programme for Ochocerciasis and LF control)
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Committee has directly advised the national programme who have made recommendations for onchocerciasis and LF control
 
Description Member, COVID Infection Survey Advisory Board subgroup on medium-term scenarios, Office for National Statistics, 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Improving the design of ongoing surveys
 
Description Membership of Data Debrief Group (JBC)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Improved situational awareness for secretary of state and prime minister to assist in evidence based decision making during COVID-19 peaks.
 
Description Membership of Pandemic Preparedness Committee of the National Science Foundation USA - Professor Sir Roy Anderson
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Membership of committee which advises USA government on pandemic preparedness and lessons learnt from COVID-19. Advise given in confidence
 
Description Membership of SET-C committee - guidance to Chief Scientist Officer (Professor Sir Roy Anderson)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Membership of Royal Society SET-C committee which provides advice in confidence to the Chief Scientists Office continuously throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Professor Anderson has contributed extensively to multiple reports and has been lead author on multiple papers: 14 December 2020: SARS-CoV-2: Where do people acquire infection and 'who infects whom'? (PDF) - 30 November 2020: Appendix (PDF) 24 August 2020: Reproduction number (R) and growth rate (r) of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK (PDF)
URL https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/set-c-science-in-emergencies-tasking-covid/
 
Description Membership of WHO SE Asian regional green light committee for TB
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Membership of WHO guidance committee. Provided 11 countries of SE Asian region with technical assistance in management of drug resistant TB. Activities have already influence strategic planning for several countries within the region.
 
Description Membership of WHO Technical Advisory Group on Health benefit packages
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Issue WHO guidance on how to design healthcare packages eg Universal Healthcare Coverage
 
Description Membership of regional WHO advisory committee on multi-drug-resistant TB in South East Asian Region
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Methods development for global HIV estimates and projections
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact We developed new mathematical models used to estimate and project trends in the global HIV epidemic. These models are used by all countries in sub-Saharan Africa and over 150 countries globally to develop official national estimates of their HIV epidemic and plan, budget, and allocate resources to the HIV response. Estimates are reported by UNAIDS as official global HIV estimates and projection, and they form consensus estimates underpinning resource allocation by the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the Global Fund to fight HIV, TB, and Malaria. 2021 - still ongoing
URL http://aidsinfo.unaids.org
 
Description Modelling Proposed GB Exit Strategies (05-05-2020). Available at SAGE 33 on 5 May 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067184/S0323_SPI-M-UK_Exit_strategies.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067...
 
Description Modelling for estimating global burden of TB
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to new or Improved professional practice
Impact This exercise represents the first time that model based approaches have been used by WHO for estimating global TB burden. The advantage of using model based approaches is that WHO can systematically take account of evidence for the degree to which TB services have been disrupted by COVID. After the first year, WHO is now arranging for this approach to become established as a formal part of their methodology.
 
Description Modelling impact of COVID disruptions on TB
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Modelling paper was used to influence in country discussions regarding domestic financing for TB control. Contribution was especially important in the Phillipines where public finances were under severe strain and in Tajekistan where modelling shaped strategy for international donors (USAID).
 
Description Modelling in support of the Global Plan to end TB
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to new or Improved professional practice
 
Description Modelling to support the WHO reccommendation decision for the RTS,S malaria vaccine.
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
URL https://www.nitag-resource.org/sites/default/files/2022-05/Full-evidence-report-on-the-rtss-as01-mal...
 
Description NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) - Since 2015
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/new-and-emerging-respiratory-virus-threats-advisory-group
 
Description NERVTAG Paper on COVID-19 Variant of Concern B.1.1.7 (21-01-2021). Considered at SAGE 77 on 21 January 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/961037/NERVTAG_note_on_B.1.1.7_severity_for_SAGE_77__1_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9610...
 
Description NERVTAG Update Note on B.1.1.7 Severity (11-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 80 on 11 February 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/982640/Feb_NERVTAG_update_note_on_B.1.1.7_severity.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9826...
 
Description National Studies, Covid-19 Surveillance and Immunity Data Debrief Group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) Table (17-09-2020). Considered at SAGE 58 on 21 September 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9258...
 
Description Omicron Severity and Vaccine Effectiveness (05-01-2022). Considered at SAGE 102 on 7 January 2022; 2022.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1046479/S1479_Imperial_Severity.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1046...
 
Description Omicron severity and vaccine effectiveness, 5 January 2022
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Part of the data that is considered by the UK govt when making decisions in response to the rise of new variants and the impacts this will have on public well being
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/imperial-college-london-omicron-severity-and-vaccine-effe...
 
Description Ongoing Disease Control Priorities 4 Chapter Authorship With World Health Organization
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Pandemic influenza preparedness - advice to government
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Effective preparedness and response to pandemics, which are the highest category of risk identified on the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. This is an ongoing activity, supported by multiple relevant grants spanning different time-periods. Updated 2020: Involvement in coronavirus real time analysis and advice
 
Description Participation in GONE meetings: Global Onchocerciasis Network for Elimination
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
URL https://www.who.int/news-room/events/detail/2023/01/30/default-calendar/act-now-act-together.-invest...
 
Description Participation in Global COVID steering group - GSK
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to new or Improved professional practice
 
Description Participation in International Best Practice Advisory Group to Cabinet Office UK (Katharina Hauck)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Involvement led to greater awareness of looking at the combined economic/health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to UK policy makers
 
Description Participation in NHRDP - national health research and development programme - committee to decide on grant allocations for COVID-19 networks
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Participation in WHO consultation process for setting the 2030 Roadmap on Neglected Tropical Diseases
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Report of the consultation meeting by the WHO - Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium Report Open Letter for Gates Open Research on Onchocerciasis, Chagas Disease and Taeniasis/Cysticercosis - contribution by ICL by highlighting insights from mathematical modelling in these 3 disciplines for the achievement of the 2030 NTD goals. Will result in increases in survival. improved quality of life for patients, decrease in disease burden and infection. This modelling can be used with economic modelling to assess the cost effectiveness of the interventions modelled.
URL https://www.who.int/neglected_diseases/news/WHO-launches-global-consultations-for-new-NTD-Roadmap/en...
 
Description Participation in advisory committee - [15:20] Turner, Hugo C Wolbachia Evidence Review Group (Guideline development)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Participation in expert scientific advisory committee (New Paradigms in Vector Control)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Investment in most appropriate tools for killing mosquitoes
URL http://www.ivcc.com
 
Description Participation in the Royal Statistical society COVID-19 task force
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
URL https://rss.org.uk/policy-campaigns/policy-groups/covid-19-task-force/
 
Description PhD Co-supervision
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact Co-supervision of a PhD student. Providing inputs on a weekly basis. Inputs are reading material, help with shaping the analysis, interpretation of findings, writing up of the final results and overall progress of the PhD. The PhD focuses on HIV and economic productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa, a topic closely related to my funded research. My support helped the student to improve the output and to progress in her PhD.
 
Description Planning Assumptions for the UK Reasonable Worst Case Scenario (25-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 19 on 26 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/904543/S0083_Planning_assumptions_for_the_UK_RWC_scenario.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9045...
 
Description Planning Scenarios for the next 6 Months (25-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 19 on 26 March 2020; 2020:1-6.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893527/S0084_SAGE19_20200325_MRC_Imperial_COVID-19_Response_Team_Planning_Scenarios.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8935...
 
Description Planning and Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios (20-05-2020). Considered at SAGE 38 on 21 May 202; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/926903/S0414_SPI-M-O_Planning_and_reasonable_worst-case_scenarios.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9269...
 
Description Population wide mass testing campaign conducted in Vo, Italy
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Support to population testing campaign in Vo, Italy in early stages of COVID-19 pandemic led to increased testing in the region. Early testing identified asymptomatic infection and led to a lower number of cases in the region compared to other regions in Italy.
 
Description Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Children under 5 years of age recovering from severe anaemia are now recommended to receive malaria chemoprevention.
 
Description Potential Effect of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on a COVID-19 Epidemic (25-02-2020). Considered at SAGE 10 on 25 February 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891785/S0025_SAGE10_Effect_of_NPIs.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8917...
 
Description Potential Effect of School Closure on a UK COVID-19 Epidemic: Annex to SPI-M-O Consensus View (20-02-2020). Considered at SAGE 9 on 20 February 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891780/S0019_SAGE9_Effect_of_School_Closure_Annex_to_SPIMO_Consensus_view_on_the_impact_of_mass_school_closures.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8917...
 
Description Potential Impact of Face Covering on the Transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK (20-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 27 on 21 April 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893648/S0207_Imperial_face_covering_plausible.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8936...
 
Description Potential Profile of the COVID-19 Epidemic in the UK under Different Vaccination Roll out Strategies (14-01-2021). Considered at SAGE 76 on 14 January 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/958913/S1024_SPI-M_vaccination_ask_Imperial_College.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9589...
 
Description Presentation and participation in WHO Technical Consultation in Research priorities for the use of more highly sensitive diagnostics during pregnancy
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
URL https://www.who.int/malaria/mpac/mpac-april2018-hi-sensitive-tests-session5.pdf?ua=1
 
Description Presentation to JCVI subcommittee on pneumococcal vaccination
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Production of estimates of travel data to/from China globally for Office for National Statistics and Department for International Development
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
 
Description Provided evidence to government reviews on phylogenetics of COVID-19 (Erik Volz)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Provided evidence to govt to inform policies relating to transmission of COVID-19 in UK
 
Description Publication 'Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil' - Citation in three WHO Policy Documents, and by The Inter-American Development Bank.
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://science.altmetric.com/details/86328003/policy-documents
 
Description Publication of work about Evidence Synthesis for Policy
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
URL https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/evidence-synthesis/
 
Description Published estimates of Impact of President's Malaria Initiative used in 12th annual report to congress
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Our estimates, published in PLoS Medicine, of the impact of the PMI since it's conception were used by PMI in it's report to congress. This report is used to advocate for resources for malaria prevention across 19 focus countries, amid a time when the US' contribution to foreign aid was being questioned.
URL https://www.pmi.gov/docs/default-source/default-document-library/pmi-reports/2018-pmi-twelfth-annual...
 
Description RDTs-WHO
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Evidence generated on the cost-effectiveness of repeat HIV testing prior to initiation on antiretroviral treatment contributed to a decision in Zimbabwe (and possibly elsewhere) to adopt a World Health Organisation recommendation to implement repeat HIV testing prior to initiating people onto antiretroviral treatment. This change in policy will reduce the numbers of HIV-negative people put on potentially life-long treatment, will reduce the occurrence of unnecessary side effects, and will reduce unnecessary expenditure.
 
Description REACT study - national study led by Professor Steven Riley
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact REACT (REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission) is a series studies that are using home testing to improve our understanding of how the COVID-19 pandemic is progressing across England. This major research programme was commissioned by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and is being carried out by Imperial College London in partnership with Ipsos MORI and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust. Here's our announcement from when the study first launched in April 2020. Results from the REACT study have been reported extensively in the media and have shaped public attitudes to non-pharmaceutical interventions, whilst providing both public and government with high level estimates of community transmission. Results from REACT have been used to shape public policy decisions regarding interventions and have been used to directly inform the Secretary of State Matt Hancock: Results from the REACT study have contributed to the implementation of the 'Rule of 6' to assist with the COVI-19 response https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/ Multiple reports have been published
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/news/february-interim-findings-from-covid-19-react-1-study-published
 
Description Raising awareness on the pros and cons of measures of epidemic spread
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
URL https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/1467985x/2022/185/S1
 
Description Reasonable Worst-Case Planning Scenario (29-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 21 on 31 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/897509/S0089_Reasonable_Worst-Case_Planning_Scenario_-_29.03.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8975...
 
Description Recommendation of second dose of inactivated polio vaccine into routine immunisation
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Recommendations made have contributed to decision to include second dose of inactivated polio vaccine into routine immunisation Policy decision will lead to decrease number of polio cases
URL https://www.who.int/immunization/sage/meetings/2020/october/SAGE_eYB_Oct2020final.pdf?ua=1
 
Description Report 1: Estimating the Potential Total Number of Novel Coronavirus Cases in Wuhan City, China. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-5.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cori A, Riley S, Ferguson N. Report 1: Estimating the Potential Total Number of Novel Coronavirus Cases in Wuhan City, China. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-5. doi:10.25561/77149
 
Description Report 2: Estimating the Potential Total Number of Novel Coronavirus s (2019-NCoV) Cases in Wuhan City, China. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-7.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Imai N, Dorigatti I, Cori A, Donnelly C, Riley S, Ferguson N. Report 2: Estimating the Potential Total Number of Novel Coronavirus s (2019-NCoV) Cases in Wuhan City, China. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-7. doi:10.25561/77150
 
Description Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-NCoV. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-6.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Imai N, Cori A, Dorigatti I, et al. Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-NCoV. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-6. doi:10.25561/77148
 
Description Report 4: Severity of 2019-Novel Coronavirus (NCoV). Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-14.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Dorigatti I, Okell L, Cori A, et al. Report 4: Severity of 2019-Novel Coronavirus (NCoV). Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-14. doi:10.25561/77154
 
Description Report 50 - Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Part of the data that is considered by the UK govt when making decisions in response to the rise of new variants and the impacts this will have on public well being
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/imperial-college-london-report-50-hospitalisation-risk-fo...
 
Description Report 5: Phylogenetic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-8.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Volz E, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, et al. Report 5: Phylogenetic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-8. doi:10.25561/77169
 
Description Report 6: Relative Sensitivity of International Surveillance. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-6.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Bhatia S, Imai N, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, et al. Report 6: Relative Sensitivity of International Surveillance. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-6. doi:10.25561/77168
 
Description Report 7: Estimating Infection Prevalence in Wuhan City from Repatriation Flights. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-9.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact doi:10.25561/77295
 
Description Report 8: Symptom Progression of COVID-19. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-11.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact doi:
 
Description Report 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand. Available evidence to SAGE; 2020:1-20.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact doi:
 
Description Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and Implications for UK Exit Strategies (03-05-2020). Available at SAGE 33 on 5 May 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067172/S0322_south_korea_short_report_2020_05_03.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067...
 
Description Return on Investment of Pandemic preparedness - contribution to report for G20
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Report objective was to determine the societal benefits of pandemic preparedness (policy impacts confidential) There is very little quantitative evidence on the role of pandemic preparedness (P2) in reducing the health and economic losses associated with pandemics. Here, we use a previously developed epidemiological-economic model to project the deaths and short-term GDP loss associated with potential future pandemics for four countries (USA, UK, China, India) and four respiratory pathogens (COVID-like, Spanish flu-like, SARS-like and Swine flu-like).
URL https://www.mef.gov.it/en/ufficio-stampa/comunicati/2021/The-G20-establishes-a-High-Level-Independen...
 
Description Reviewing and raising awareness on pandemic exit strategies and modelling challenges
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
URL https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2020.1405
 
Description SPI-M-O. Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (01-10-2020).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-1-october-2020
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-1-october-2020
 
Description SPI-M-O. Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (10-09-2020).
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-10-september-2020
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-10-september-2020
 
Description SPI-M-O. Consensus View on the Impact of Mass School Closures (17-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 17 on 18 March 2020; 2020:1-4.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888390/s0063-spi-m-o-consensus-view-school-closures-170320-sage17.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8883...
 
Description SPI-M-O. Consensus View on the Impact of Mass School Closures on 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-NCoV) (10-02-2020). Considered at SAGE 6 on 11 February 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888389/s0010-spi-m-o-consensus-view-school-closures-100220-sage6.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8883...
 
Description SPI-M-O. Medium-Term Projections (19-01-2022). Considered by dCSA on 28 January 2022; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1052427/S1499_220119_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1052...
 
Description SPI-M-O. Medium-Term Projections (27-10-2021). Considered by dCSA on 28 October 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1031219/SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1031...
 
Description Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) - Covid-19
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Report submitted to SAGE: https://www.cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/16th-April-2020-Report-Covid-19-Genomics-Consortium-UK-COG-UK.pdf
 
Description Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M-O) (since 2009)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-publish-updated-modelling-summary
 
Description Scientific committee for Pandemic Influenza - Modelling (SPI-M)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Evidence given to SPI_M committee directly influenced early messaging about the severity of COVID-19.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-pandemic-influenza-subgroup-on-modelling
 
Description Seconded to the UK Health Security Agency as Director General for Data, Analytics and Surveillance
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact I have directly informed a numebr of government policies, including the respoinse to Omicron, living with COVID and others.
 
Description Selected to participate in BBSRC pool of experts
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Sensitivity of Proposed UK Sentinel GP COVID-19 Surveillance (25-02-2020). Considered at SAGE 10 on 25 February 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891888/S0024_SAGE10_Sensitivity_of_GP_Surveillance.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8918...
 
Description Sensitivity of Proposed UK Sentinel ICU Pneumonia Surveillance (25-02-2020). Considered at SAGE 10 on 25th February 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891878/S0023_SAGE10_Sensitivity_of_ICU_Surveillance.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8918...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasting: Academic Summary Positions (02-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 22 on 2 April 2020; 2020:1.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917022/SAGE22_20200401_Summary_of_Warwick__Imperial__LSHTM_and_PHE_Forecasting_Models_S0106.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasting: Proposed Process for Discussion (02-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 22 on 2 April 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/916915/SAGE22_20200401_SAGE_Short-term_forecasting_-_proposed_process_for_discussion_S0104_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9169...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasting: Proposed Process for Discussion (06-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 23 on 7 April 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/916917/SAGE23_20200406_SPI-M_Short-Term_Forecasting_S0110_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9169...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (07-07-2020). Considered at SAGE 46 on 9 July 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917069/SAGE46_20200708_forecasts_equal_weight_for_SAGE_S0598_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (08-06-2020). Considered at SAGE 41 on 11 June 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917043/SAGE41_2b._20200609_forecasts_equal_weight_SAGE_S0516_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (10-05-2020). Considered at SAGE 35 on 12 May 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-covid-19-short-term-forecasts-10-may-2020
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-covid-19-short-term-forecasts-10-may-2020
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (11-08-2020). Considered at SAGE 51 on 13 August 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917253/SAGE51_20200811_forecast_equal_weight_for_SAGE_S0694_for_release.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9172...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (16-06-2020). Considered at SAGE 42 on 18 June 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917045/SAGE42_2b._20200616_forecasts_equal_weight_for_SAGE_S0542_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (17-05-2020). Considered at SAGE 37 on 19 May 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917036/SAGE37_2a._20200518_forecasts_equal_weight_SAGE_S0408_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (21-07-2020). Considered at SAGE 48 on 23 July 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917048/SAGE48_20200721_forecasts_equal_weight_for_SAGE_S0645_for_release.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (24-06-2020). Considered at SAGE 44 on 25 June 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917046/SAGE44_20200623_forecasts_equal_weight_for_SAGE_S0563_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (25-05-2020). Considered at SAGE 39 on 28 May 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917040/SAGE39_2a._SPI-M_Short-term_Forecasts_20200526_S0443_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O (30-06-2020). Considered at SAGE 45 on 2 July 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917066/SAGE45_20200630_forecasts_equal_weight_for_SAGE_S0576_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O - PILOT (03-05-2020). Considered at SAGE 33 on 5 May 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917031/SAGE33_2b._20200504_forecasts_SAGE_S0311_for_release_v2.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9170...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O - PILOT (07-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 24 on 9 April 2020; 2020. h
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917244/SAGE24_SPI-M_20200407_forecasts_S0119_for_release.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9172...
 
Description Short-Term Forecasts from SPI-M-O - PILOT (12-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 25 on 14 April 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/917245/SAGE25_20200412_forecasts_S0125_for_release.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9172...
 
Description Special Adviser to Governor of New York State Andrew Cuomo
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Special adviser to NY state government to provide modelling and information regarding easing of control measures. Advice given has led to reduction in number of COVID cases and deaths and led to slowing of reopening of retail and hospitality sectors. Quoted in Andrew Cuomo's book 'American crisis'
 
Description Strategic Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards at WHO
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Influence on continued operational response for Ebola outbreak in DRC - has led to increased situational awareness of epidemiological trends. HAs led to improved service provision from international organisations.
URL https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/strategic-and-technical-advisory-group-for-infectious-hazar...
 
Description Strategies for Gradually Lifting NPIs in Parallel to COVID-19 Vaccine Roll-out in the UK (03-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 79 on 4 February 2021; 2021:1-17.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963364/S1078_SPI-M_vaccination_ask_Imperial_College_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9633...
 
Description Strategies for Long-Term Management of COVID-19 Transmission (21-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 27 on 21 April 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/943099/S0211_Imperial_Strategies_for_long-term_management_of_COVID-19_transmission.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9430...
 
Description Summary Indicative Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Transmission & Mortality (02-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 12 on 3 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891845/S0029_NPIs_summary_Imperial_Annex_3_to_Potential_impact_of_behavioural_and_social_interventions_on_an_epidemic_of_Covid19_in_the_UK.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8918...
 
Description Summary of Further Modelling of Easing Restrictions - Roadmap Step 2 (31-03-2021). Considered at SAGE 85 on 31 March 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9759...
 
Description Summary of Further Modelling of Easing Restrictions - Roadmap Step 3 (05-05-2021). Considered at SAGE 88 on 5 May 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984521/S1227_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_further_modelling_of_easing_restrictions_Roadmap_Step_3__2_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9845...
 
Description Summary of Further Modelling of Easing Restrictions - Roadmap Step 4 (07-07-2021). Considered at SAGE 93 on 7 July 2021; 2021:1-17.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1075065/S1301_SPI-M-O_Summary_Roadmap_second_Step_4.2_1_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1075...
 
Description Summary of Further Modelling of Easing Restrictions - Roadmap Step 4 (09-06-2020). Considered at SAGE 92 on 9 June 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictions-roadmap-step-4-9-june-2021/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictions-roadmap-step-4
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictio...
 
Description Summary of Modelling Considerations for the Reimposition of Measures (13-10-2021). Considered at SAGE 96 on 14 October 2021; 2021:1-4.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1029670/S1389_SPI-M-O_Summary_reimposition.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1029...
 
Description Summary of Modelling for Scenarios for COVID-19 Autumn and Winter 2021 to 2022 (13-10-2021). Considered at SAGE 96 on 14 October 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027851/S1383_SPI-M-O_Summary_autumn_winter_scenarios.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027...
 
Description Summary of Modelling on Easing Restrictions (03-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 79 4 February 2021; 2021:1-5.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963504/S1075_SPI-M-O_summary_of_modelling_on_easing_restrictions__1_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9635...
 
Description Summary of Modelling on Roadmap Scenarios (17-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 81 on 18 February 2021; 2021:1-13.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1075032/S1130_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_further_modelling_of_easing_restrictions__1_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1075...
 
Description Summary of Modelling on Scenarios for Easing Restrictions (07-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 80 on 11 February 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-modelling-on-scenario-for-easing-restrictions-6-february-2021/spi-m-o-summary-of-modelling-on-scenario-for-easing-restrictions-7-february-2021
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-modelling-on-scenario-for-easing-restr...
 
Description Support MSF surveillance of malaria policy
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Provided evidence to allow MSF to monitor malaria severity using antinatal clinic data
URL http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6114784
 
Description Support the development of guidelines for malaria surveillance in near-elimination settings. We have outlined a set of questions that should be asked to estimate whether an identified case of malaria was acquired locally or imported from abroad. These include statements on the time and location of travel, duration of stay and date of arrival of symptoms. Questions trailed in regions of South Africa.
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description TB control priorities in India
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
 
Description Talk given to All Party PArliamentary Group on Biosecurity re COVID-19
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
URL https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/offices/bicameral/post/post-events/future-biosecurit...
 
Description Talk given to Zimbabwe MoH on 'Misclassification errors in routine HIV testing'
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Led to changes in decisions to the national HIV testing algorithm.
 
Description Technical advisory committee for the development of GOData2 - WHO Software for contact tracing
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Development of software used in contact tracing for various diseases including Ebola and COVID-19
URL https://www.who.int/godata
 
Description Technical assistance to inform the COVID-19 policy response (Sri Lanka)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact The findings contributed to Sri Lanka's decision to extend the lockdown by two further weeks
 
Description Technical assistance to inform the second SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination (Indonesia)
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Informing the Ministry of Health on the value of a second booster
 
Description Technical consultation on the use of economics in insecticide resistance management for malaria vector control
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Online tool to help national malaria control programmes to choose the most appropriate vector control tool for their setting and budget. This will lead to lives saved.
URL https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240042049
 
Description The Role of Children in Transmission (16-04-2020). Considered at SAGE 26 on 16 April 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/894616/s0141-sage-sub-group-role-children-transmission-160420-sage26.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8946...
 
Description Timing & Local Triggering of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demands (05-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 12 on 3 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891855/S0039_SAGE13_MRC_Imperial_Timing_and_Triggering_of_NPIs.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8918...
 
Description Timing of the Introduction of School Closure for COVID-19 Epidemic Suppression (18-03-2020). Considered at SAGE 17 on 18 March 2020; 2020.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/893515/S0067_SAGE17_20200318_Imperial_School_Closure_Timing.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8935...
 
Description Travel Ban to the UK from South America, Cape Verde and Portugal.
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact PI Nuno Faria presented work to the UK Government on a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 (P1) discovered in Manaus, Brazil. As a consequence of the findings, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued a travel ban from several Latin American countries, Portugal, Panama and Cape Verde.
URL https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55671656#:~:text=Covid%3A%20UK's%20ban%20on%20South%20America%20and%20...
 
Description Typhoid environmental surveillance advisory group for the Gates Foundation
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description UK Academy of Sciences
Geographic Reach South America 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description UKHSA mpox technical group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Our modelling informed situational awareness related to the mpox epidemic, providing insights into the relative effect of vaccination and behaviour change in decreasing mpox cases.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into...
 
Description UNAIDS reference group
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact From 2015 to 2018, I co-chaired the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections. This group advises UNAIDS and WHO on the methods used to generate international estimates of HIV infection and it's demographic impact. During this period, significant progress was made in improving these estimates - for example, for children infected with HIV, by incorporating age-structure into the models, and in producing local estimates of levels of HIV infection - that can be used to strengthen national HIV control programmes and, thereby, to further reduce levels of new infections and mortality.
URL http://www.epidem.org/
 
Description US National Academy of Science committee on pandemic preparedness
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Decisions made regarding future pandemic responses (metrics to consider).
 
Description Unlocking Roadmap Scenarios for England (05-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 80 on 11 February 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963445/S1117_Unlocking_roadmap_scenarios_for_England.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9634...
 
Description Unlocking Roadmap Scenarios for England v2 (18-02-2021). Considered at SAGE 81 on 18 February 2021; 2021.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963440/S1129__Unlocking__Roadmap_Scenarios_for_England_.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/9634...
 
Description Update from Regional Variation Group (02-06-2021). Available at SAGE 91 on 3 June 2021; 2021:1-4.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067099/S1277_Local_Variation_Space_SPI-M_subgroup.pdf
URL https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1067...
 
Description WHO - Technical Advisory Group (TAG) on Arbovirus
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
URL https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/public-notice-of-proposed-new-technical-advisory-group...
 
Description WHO Advisory Group for the HPV therapeutic vaccines modelling and preferred product characteristics
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modelling Consortium (CCEMC)
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Publication of report -
 
Guideline Title WHO Dengue Vaccination recommendation
Description WHO Dengue Vaccination recommendation
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in clinical guidelines
Impact Recommendations on optimal vaccine use has led to changes in the delivery of vaccines in relevant populations
URL https://www.who.int/wer/2016/wer9130.pdf?ua=1
 
Description WHO Flu Burden
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description WHO Technical Consultation on the Validation of elimination of HBV mother-to-child transmission.
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description WHO UNAIDs recent infection Consultation on Using HIV recency testing for surveillance
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description WHO consultation to review interim results of the multi-centre laboratory study for determining insecticide discriminating concentrations monitoring of resistance in multiple vector species
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Using a standard conc of insecticide will allow more sensitive detection of resistance and the sue of the most appropriate insecticide
URL https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240045200
 
Description WHO guidelines for prevention of mother to child transmission of HBV
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Contribution to the goal of elimination of HBV for new technologies for mother to child transmission
 
Description WHO mpox data and analytics
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact These meetings provided clarity about the drivers of mpox cases in developed countries and possible mechanisms for the decline in mpox cases. Our modelling effort was the first to indicate changing risk behaviour as a likely driver behind decreasing mpox cases in Summer 2022.
 
Description WHO policy of recommending the use of second-in-class bednets against malaria
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Impacts not yet recognised
 
Description WHO spread of pyrethroid resistant mosquitoes across Africa.
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact Collaboration with the World Health Organisation (WHO) Global Malaria Programme to understand the spread of pyrethroid resistant mosquitoes across Africa and how this influences the effectiveness of insecticide treated bednets used to control malaria. Though this has not led to any specific policy recommendations the work was presented in a WHO document (World Malaria Report 2019, Global report on insecticide resistance in malaria vectors: 2010-2016, accessed https://www.who.int/malaria/publications/atoz/9789241514057/en/ ) and on a live WHO webinar (https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/274556/WHO-CDS-GMP-2018.17-eng.pdf?ua=1). This work has supported the development of online threat maps for insecticide resistance status (https://www.who.int/malaria/maps/threats-about/en/).
URL https://www.who.int/malaria/publications/atoz/9789241514057/en/
 
Description WHO world malaria report
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Tracking of ITN numbers and use and inefficiencies
 
Description World Malaria Report 2019
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Published estimates of exposure and burden of malaria during pregnancy and associated Low birthweight were incorporated into official WHO estimates underpinning the World Malaria Report estimates of malaria burden and progress.
URL https://www.who.int/publications-detail/world-malaria-report-2019
 
Description World Malaria Report 2021
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact LOOK UP WMR - Tom/Sam/Patrick https://endmalaria.org/sites/default/files/Global%20Call%20to%20Action%2C%20final%20EN.pdf Scaling up of drugs to pregnant women - LOOK THIS UP
URL https://www.who.int/publications-detail-redirect/9789240015791
 
Description World Malaria Report 2021
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact World Malaria report provides an account of the burden of malaria globally and provides a framework for tackling the burden of disease
URL https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports/world-malaria-report-2021
 
Description World Malaria Report 2022 - Estimates of malaria in pregnancy risk and burden across Africa
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports/world-malaria-report-2022
 
Description Zimbabwe national AIDs council - workshop on HIV prevention cascade
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
 
Description (CoroNAb) - Nanobodies and antibodies against 2019-nCoV
Amount € 2,771,658 (EUR)
Funding ID 101003653 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 03/2020 
End 03/2022
 
Description 3 PA's for Dr Shevanthi Nayagam BRC
Amount £12,688,094 (GBP)
Funding ID RDF01 
Organisation Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust 
Sector Hospitals
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2019 
End 11/2023
 
Description A genealogical approach to tracking bacterial transmission (Xavier Didelot)
Amount £403,170 (GBP)
Funding ID MR/N010760/1 
Organisation Medical Research Council (MRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 05/2019
 
Description A global registry of women affected by COVID-19 in pregnancy, understanding natural history to guide treatment and prevention
Amount £253,257 (GBP)
Funding ID MC_PC 19066 
Organisation Medical Research Council (MRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2020 
End 10/2021
 
Description A search-engine inspired platform enabling open sharing and access of both data and results from all genomic studies
Amount £38,832 (GBP)
Funding ID 219699/Z/19/Z 
Organisation Wellcome Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2020 
End 07/2021
 
Description ALPHA network: HIV incidence trends and risk factors to describe patterns and risks for HIV incidence in selected communities in Southern and Eastern Africa
Amount £180,208 (GBP)
Funding ID EPPHZM5513/Imperial 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 09/2018 
End 08/2021
 
Description APW WHO Global Malaria Programme
Amount £17,932 (GBP)
Funding ID 202011200 
Organisation World Health Organization (WHO) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 05/2018 
End 03/2019
 
Description APW for joint modelling of adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa
Amount £18,000 (GBP)
Funding ID DDI/DNA/SCH 
Organisation World Health Organization (WHO) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 03/2021 
End 09/2021
 
Description Alessandra Lochen - PhD project support June2017 - Dec2020
Amount £58,818 (GBP)
Funding ID PO 480075829 
Organisation GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 
Sector Private
Country Global
Start 06/2019 
End 06/2021
 
Description Analysis and modelling of vaccine-derived poliovirus emergence and spread
Amount £152,220 (GBP)
Funding ID 2022/1217583-0 
Organisation World Health Organization (WHO) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 03/2022 
End 12/2023
 
Description Analysis of ALPHA Network
Amount £37,490 (GBP)
Funding ID PR2017/724002 EPPHZL91/IMPERIAL 
Organisation Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 12/2017 
End 11/2018
 
Description Analytic and sequencing tools for poliovirus environmental surveillance
Amount £876,522 (GBP)
Funding ID OPP1171890 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 04/2017 
End 12/2021
 
Description Analytics to Support Interruption of Vaccine Derived Poliovirus Transmission
Amount £422,235 (GBP)
Funding ID INV-031605 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 04/2021 
End 11/2023
 
Description Anti-tuberculosis drug hepatotoxicity and treatment introduction - Stage 2
Amount £277,695 (GBP)
Funding ID 19GRM013/HTA/Lim 
Organisation National Institute for Health Research 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2020 
End 12/2028
 
Description Antibiotic Resistance: Mathematical modelling simulating the evolutionary response of genococcus within human populations to gepotidacin use
Amount £151,716 (GBP)
Funding ID 3000862100 
Organisation GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 
Sector Private
Country Global
Start 05/2017 
End 12/2020
 
Description Application of mathematical models to guide and evaluate malaria control and elimination programs
Amount £1,377,815 (GBP)
Funding ID INV-043624 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 05/2022 
End 05/2025
 
Description Artemisinin Resistance in Africa: its emergence and evolution in Rwanda - Rescope
Amount £13,697 (GBP)
Funding ID 00002014 
Organisation National Institutes of Health (NIH) 
Sector Public
Country United States
Start 07/2021 
End 07/2026
 
Description Assessing the impact of waning vaccine efficacy on malarial elimination using a population transmission model
Amount £61,597 (GBP)
Funding ID GAT.0888-30-01320457-COL 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 09/2016 
End 11/2018
 
Description Assessing the risk that chytridiomycosis poses to the megadiverse amphibian community of Madagascar
Amount £119,900 (GBP)
Funding ID D16ZO-022 
Organisation Morris Animal Foundation 
Sector Private
Country United States
Start 08/2016 
End 04/2020
 
Description BMGF Project Grant: Vaccine Modelling Initiative (VMI) 2
Amount £970,053 (GBP)
Funding ID OPP1092240 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 05/2013 
End 06/2020
 
Description Better decisions for Better 1
Amount £133,109 (GBP)
Organisation Wellcome Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2017 
End 12/2021
 
Description Beyond 90-90-90: Phylodynamic analysis to guide HIV surveillance, control & elimination
Amount £293,580 (GBP)
Organisation Imperial College London 
Department School of Public Health
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2018 
End 09/2022
 
Description Building International Collaborations on the Mathematical Modelling of Emerging Infectious Disease Threats (Neil Ferguson)
Amount £49,657 (GBP)
Funding ID P11329/DF118 
Organisation Imperial College London 
Department Imperial College Trust
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2008 
End 12/2023
 
Description Building TRUST
Amount £143,306 (GBP)
Funding ID Sub Award No. 1800014 
Organisation National Institutes of Health (NIH) 
Sector Public
Country United States
Start 06/2015 
End 06/2020
 
Description COVID 19 - Improving COVID-19 forecasts by accounting for seasonality and environmental responses
Amount £287,120 (GBP)
Funding ID NE/V009710/1 
Organisation Natural Environment Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2020 
End 11/2021
 
Description COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium
Amount £20,790,000 (GBP)
Funding ID G106266 
Organisation Medical Research Council (MRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2020 
End 09/2021
 
Description COVID-19 UKRI Website
Amount £64,125 (GBP)
Funding ID 4020019245 
Organisation Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2020 
End 09/2020
 
Description COVID-19 Vaccine Evidence Assessment
Amount £18,681 (GBP)
Funding ID APW PO# 202830303 
Organisation World Health Organization (WHO) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 03/2022 
End 08/2022
 
Description COVID-19: Modeling sensitivity, time to result in prevalence context
Amount $71,644 (USD)
Funding ID INV-023013 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 09/2020 
End 07/2021
 
Description COVID-19: Surveillance using environmental samples in Bangladesh
Amount £39,995 (GBP)
Funding ID GF14319.PO 2287477 
Organisation University of Virginia (UVa) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United States
Start 08/2020 
End 12/2022
 
Description Capturing the full public health value of RSV vaccines: using mathematical modelling to inform target product profiles
Amount £200,359 (GBP)
Organisation Imperial College London 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2020 
End 12/2023
 
Description Characterizing and modelling the relationship between socio-economic status and infectious disease risk in the UK (Kate Mitchell)
Amount £94,692 (GBP)
Organisation Imperial College London 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2022 
End 03/2023
 
Description Climate Sensitive Vector Borne Disease Intervention Tools
Amount £519,891 (GBP)
Funding ID 226072/Z/22/Z 
Organisation Wellcome Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2022 
End 10/2027
 
Description Combination prevention and strategies for HIV control: In-depth analysis of data from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial
Amount £127,927 (GBP)
Funding ID EPIDZS7011 / INPUTT 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 02/2020 
End 01/2023
 
Description Contributing quantitative analysis towards accelerating declines in TB burden in India and South Africa
Amount £564,674 (GBP)
Funding ID INV-025664 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 12/2020 
End 01/2024
 
Description Control of TB in India: developing analytical tools
Amount £387,267 (GBP)
Funding ID OPP1095710 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 11/2013 
End 03/2020
 
Description Controlling emergent Anopheles stephensi in Ethiopia and Sudan (CEASE)
Amount £3,552,923 (GBP)
Funding ID 220870/Z/20/Z 
Organisation Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2021 
End 12/2024
 
Description Cost-effectiveness of testing and treating latent TB infection (LTBI) and active TB disease in the UK using different strategies of patient targeting and different test technologies: a multidisciplinary transmission-dynamic health-economic
Amount £483,406 (GBP)
Funding ID NIHR HTA 127459 
Organisation National Institute for Health Research 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2019 
End 03/2023
 
Description DeWorm3 DAC Trial Planning Grant
Amount $249,004 (USD)
Funding ID INV-017893 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 06/2020 
End 12/2021
 
Description Dengue in Africa and burden mapping - DNDi project
Amount £92,306 (GBP)
Funding ID n/a 
Organisation Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative (DNDi) 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country Switzerland
Start 03/2022 
End 06/2023
 
Description Develop a novel, cost-effective, surveillance approach for malaria elimination through existing antenatal care platform
Amount £56,255 (GBP)
Organisation PATH 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country Global
Start 02/2018 
End 08/2018
 
Description Developing entomological indicators to assess the public health value of next generation LLINs and IRS chemistries
Amount £176,348 (GBP)
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 08/2019 
End 07/2023
 
Description Developing modelling approaches for influenza control in the USA
Amount £210,020 (GBP)
Funding ID BAA 75D301-19-R-67835 
Organisation Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 
Sector Public
Country United States
Start 07/2019 
End 01/2021
 
Description Developing reliable epidemic forecasting using branching processes: Ebola as a case study
Amount £99,998 (GBP)
Funding ID SBF005\1044 
Organisation Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS) 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2020 
End 09/2022
 
Description Development and implementation of the Naomi model for second administrative level HIV estimates in Sub-Saharan Africa
Amount £351,155 (GBP)
Funding ID 2019/974072 
Organisation Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 12/2019 
End 12/2021
 
Description Development and implementation of the Naomi model for second administrative level HIV estimates in sub-Saharan Africa
Amount £258,879 (GBP)
Funding ID 2022/1203567 
Organisation Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 03/2022 
End 12/2023
 
Description Development and pilot implementation of rapid poliovirus detection and sequencing from stool samples using nanopore technology
Amount £200,458 (GBP)
Funding ID OPP1207299 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 11/2018 
End 06/2021
 
Description Development evaluation and impact of RT-LAMP diagnostics and sequence surveillance on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in South Africa (RADIATES)
Amount £41,889 (GBP)
Funding ID RIA2020EF-3030 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 09/2020 
End 09/2022
 
Description Development of Methods to Measure and Interpret HIV Prevention Cascades in Population-Based Surveys
Amount £897,714 (GBP)
Funding ID OPP1161471 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 11/2016 
End 01/2023
 
Description Deworm3 unit for transmission dynamics, trial simulation and data analysis
Amount £1,205,330 (GBP)
Funding ID SON15004 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 03/2016 
End 03/2021
 
Description Disentangling serotype diversity and the corresponding patterns of immunity in Streptococcus pyogenes (Liliith Whittles)
Amount £300,000 (GBP)
Funding ID 218669/Z/19/Z 
Organisation Wellcome Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2021 
End 09/2025
 
Description Dynamic Modelling of HSV-2 and HIV Infections to Estimate the Burden of HSV-associated HIV Infections and the Predicted Impact of HSV Vaccines
Amount £118,543 (GBP)
Funding ID 202002015 
Organisation World Health Organization (WHO) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 04/2018 
End 12/2019
 
Description Early antiretroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among emale sex workers in Benin, West Africa
Amount £121,857 (GBP)
Funding ID OPP1098973 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 07/2014 
End 12/2018
 
Description Ed Parker: The effect of maternal and neonatal viral exposure on innate and adaptive immune function
Amount £34,726 (GBP)
Funding ID 204834/Z/16/Z 
Organisation Wellcome Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2018 
End 08/2019
 
Description Effectiveness of Timely Hepatitis B Birth Dose Vaccination in Africa
Amount £1,620,956 (GBP)
Funding ID MEL 11604 6 22 
Organisation Gavi 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country Switzerland
Start 05/2022 
End 11/2024
 
Description Elimination of cervical cancer through vaccination and screening in high HIV prevalence settings: a mathematical modelling and cost effectiveness study
Amount £40,194 (GBP)
Funding ID 251758 
Organisation McGill University 
Sector Academic/University
Country Canada
Start 03/2020 
End 03/2025
 
Description Emergence and global epidemiology of non-polio enteroviruses
Amount £909,233 (GBP)
Funding ID 216427/Z/19/Z 
Organisation Wellcome Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2020 
End 01/2025
 
Description Epidemiological analysis and mathematical modelling of poliovirus elimination and endgame vaccination strategies
Amount £236,130 (GBP)
Funding ID 2017/769688-0 
Organisation World Health Organization (WHO) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 11/2017 
End 08/2019
 
Description Epidemiological analysis and mathematical modelling of serotype 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus
Amount £122,044 (GBP)
Funding ID 2020/1014353-0 
Organisation World Health Organization (WHO) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 03/2020 
End 12/2021
 
Description Epidemiological modelling support to the Net Transition strategic initiative
Amount £241,194 (GBP)
Funding ID 202102265 (IPROJ) 
Organisation Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country Switzerland
Start 03/2022 
End 12/2024
 
Description Epidemiological modelling to support the global COVID-19 response: How to mitigate impact in low-income and crisis-affected settings
Amount £96,664 (GBP)
Funding ID 221350/Z/20/Z 
Organisation Wellcome Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2020 
End 10/2020
 
Description Evaluation of the potential for rapid diagnostic testing (RDTs) for malaria within antenatal care to provide sustainable, dynamic and scalable malaria surveillance
Amount £802,854 (GBP)
Funding ID INV-005289 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 09/2020 
End 09/2023
 
Description Evaluation of the potential for rapid diagnostic testing for malaria within antenatal care to provide sustainable, dynamic and scalable malaria surveillance.
Amount £99,998 (GBP)
Funding ID SBF005\1107 
Organisation Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS) 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2020 
End 02/2023
 
Description Evaluation work by LCNTDR for the Geshiaro project in support of EPHI
Amount £1,796,879 (GBP)
Funding ID R-1701-01771 
Organisation Children's Investment Fund Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2018 
End 06/2023
 
Description Evaluations to Inform Decisions using Economics and Epidemiology (EVIDENCE)
Amount £88,510 (GBP)
Organisation United States Agency for International Development 
Sector Public
Country United States
Start 06/2019 
End 11/2020
 
Description Evidence for and against selection of specific pyrethroids for programmatic purposes
Amount £36,768 (GBP)
Funding ID Collab_TA5_RBPS04426_ICL 
Organisation Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country Switzerland
Start 02/2020 
End 12/2020
 
Description Evolution, transmission and antimicrobial resistance of pathogenic group B streptococci (EJauneikaite)
Amount £125,000 (GBP)
Funding ID M683 
Organisation Rosetrees Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2017 
End 04/2024
 
Description Evolution, transmission and antimicrobial resistance of pathogenic group B streptococci (EJauneikaite)
Amount £125,000 (GBP)
Funding ID M683 
Organisation Stoneygate Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2017 
End 04/2024
 
Description Evolutionary dynamics underlying pneumococcal genomic diversity
Amount £640,778 (GBP)
Funding ID 104169/Z/14/A 
Organisation Sir Henry Dale Fellowships 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2019 
End 09/2023
 
Description Evolutionary dynamics underlying pneumococcal genomic diversity.
Amount £1,407,940 (GBP)
Funding ID 104169/Z/14/Z 
Organisation Wellcome Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2014 
End 09/2024
 
Description Explore the Pathway of China NICE-like Mechanism by Piloting Three Suggested Projects
Amount £172,623 (GBP)
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 12/2017 
End 05/2019
 
Description Feasibility of integrating antenatal testing for HBV into the existing HIV and syphilis dual elimination framework in rural Zimbabwe (Njikizana, Kudzanai): ISSF Global Health Clinical Research Training Fellowship
Amount £76,307 (GBP)
Organisation Wellcome Trust 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2021 
End 01/2023
 
Description Funding for epidemiological analysis to inform HMGs COVID-19 response
Amount £65,804 (GBP)
Funding ID COV-EPI-01 
Organisation Department of Health (DH) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2020 
End 03/2021
 
Description GPS2: Global Pneumococcal Sequence surveillance 2.0
Amount £199,851 (GBP)
Organisation The Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2020 
End 11/2023
 
Description Geospatial modelling for malaria risk stratification and intervention targeting
Amount £219,507 (GBP)
Funding ID 1606H5002/JH6 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 08/2016 
End 08/2020
 
Description Global systematic review of the immunogenicity, safety, efficacy, and durability of HPV vaccines among HIV positive individuals
Amount £70,643 (GBP)
Funding ID 2020/997664-0 
Organisation World Health Organization (WHO) 
Sector Public
Country Global
Start 03/2020 
End 06/2021
 
Description HC-HIV modeling activity
Amount £156,940 (GBP)
Funding ID 48345 
Organisation United States Agency for International Development 
Sector Public
Country United States
Start 05/2017 
End 08/2018
 
Description HIV Modelling Consortium Renewal
Amount £3,527,347 (GBP)
Funding ID OPP1084364 
Organisation Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 05/2013 
End 01/2019
 
Description HIV and TB estimation, mathematical modelling, and economic analysis to support national and sub-national HIV policy setting in South Africa
Amount £287,875 (GBP)
Organisation University of Cape Town 
Sector Academic/University
Country South Africa
Start 03/2021 
End 12/2023
 
Description Health Research Programme Consortia (RPCS): Filling Gaps in Evidence: Building Stronger and More Resilient Health Systems
Amount £114,000 (GBP)
Funding ID 2018/S 196-443482 
Organisation London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom