Global scale impacts of climate change: a multi-sectoral analysis
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Geography
Abstract
Climate policy should be informed by robust and credible information on the impacts of climate change across the global domain; a global perspective also places local and regional impacts in context, and helps identify potential 'hotspots' for further scientific investigation. The project assesses the global-scale impact of climate change using a range of linked impact modules and impact indicators, representing impacts on water resources, flood risk, food production, biodiversity and human health and well-being on land, at the coast, and at sea. The project will synthesise and aggregrate across sectors and regions, using a variety of approaches, and allow the identification of the risks of specific impacts occurring at different rates of climate change. The methodology and results of the project also provide a framework for the assessment of the impacts of defined climate policies. First, it allows detailed geographically-explicit assessments of specific climate scenarios or climate policies, using the suite of linked models. Second, it allows the more rapid assessment of a very large number of climate outcomes (based for example on a probabilistic assessment of the climate effects of an emissions policy) using regionalised functions relating climate impact to indices of climate forcing. The project will be undertaken by a consortium of twelve lead partners, all with international reputations in the field of climate impact assessment.
Publications
Fraser E
(2008)
Quantifying socioeconomic characteristics of drought-sensitive regions: Evidence from Chinese provincial agricultural data
in Comptes Rendus. Géoscience
Kingston D
(2009)
Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change
in Geophysical Research Letters
Simelton E
(2009)
Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: an empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961-2001)
in Environmental Science & Policy
Singh C
(2010)
Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming on runoff from headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for the water level regime of Loktak Lake, northeast India
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Xu H
(2010)
Hydrological modeling of River Xiangxi using SWAT2005: A comparison of model parameterizations using station and gridded meteorological observations
in Quaternary International
Kingston D
(2010)
Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge and groundwater in a headwater catchment of the Upper Nile Basin, Uganda
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Gosling SN
(2010)
Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Fraser E
(2011)
Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems: Conceptual Challenges and Interdisciplinary Solutions
in Ecology and Society
Nóbrega M
(2011)
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hughes D
(2011)
Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River basin as a result of climate change
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Gosling S
(2011)
Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis
in Hydrological Processes
Todd M
(2011)
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources - preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Singh C
(2011)
Modelling water-level options for ecosystem services and assessment of climate change: Loktak Lake, northeast India
in Hydrological Sciences Journal
Lloyd SJ
(2011)
Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.
in Environmental health perspectives
Xu H
(2011)
Quantifying uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in sub-catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins, China
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Nicholls RJ
(2011)
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Thorne R
(2011)
Uncertainty in the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of a subarctic environment: Liard River Basin
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Gosling S
(2011)
The implications of climate policy for avoided impacts on water scarcity
in Procedia Environmental Sciences
Yeh P
(2011)
Multimodel Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results
in Journal of Hydrometeorology
Description | This study assessed the impacts of climate change in a number of catchments world-wide, using a consistent set of climate scenarios. It demonstrated in a consistent way the differences in impact in different geographic settings: previous comparisons had been made complicated by the use of different scenarios. The summary results were included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. |
Exploitation Route | They will inform the design of subsequent investigations into the effects of catchment and climate variability on the impacts of climate change. |
Sectors | Environment |
Description | Influence on UK climate policy negotiators |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Impact | The paper (Arnell et al., 2013) has been used by DECC to support its position on climate change temperature targets. The paper describes the impacts avoided by different climate change pathways, and was produced during the DECC-funded AVOID project which built upon QUEST-GSI. Subsequent research based on QUEST-GSI has been used by DECC to inform its position during the 2015 COP21 Paris climate negotiations. |
URL | http://www.avoid.uk.net/ |
Description | AVOID |
Amount | £800,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department of Energy and Climate Change |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2009 |
End | 03/2013 |
Description | AVOID2 |
Amount | £1,450,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department of Energy and Climate Change |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2014 |
End | 03/2016 |
Description | Impacts of climate change |
Amount | £31,500 (GBP) |
Organisation | Committee on Climate Change (CCC) |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2015 |
End | 06/2015 |
Title | QUEST-GSI global impacts |
Description | The QUEST-GSI project produced estimates of the impacts of climate change across a range of metrics at gridded (0.5x0.5o) and regional scales. The gridded data are available through BADC, and the regional data are provided as Supplementary Material in published papers. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2014 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | None yet |
URL | http://badc.nerc.ac.uk |
Description | Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models |
Organisation | University of Nottingham |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Further scientific research culminating in a paper published in the Journal of hydrology based on partnership developed under the QUEST-GSI project |
Start Year | 2009 |
Description | Groundwater & Climate |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Invited presentation to side event at the World Climate Congress 3 Increased awareness of the QUEST-GSI research project |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2009 |
Description | Groundwater, Climate Change & Adaptation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Lead presentation at a side event at COP15 in Copenhagen n/a |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2009 |