Global scale impacts of climate change: a multi-sectoral analysis
Lead Research Organisation:
NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
Department Name: Harding
Abstract
Climate policy should be informed by robust and credible information on the impacts of climate change across the global domain; a global perspective also places local and regional impacts in context, and helps identify potential 'hotspots' for further scientific investigation. The project assesses the global-scale impact of climate change using a range of linked impact modules and impact indicators, representing impacts on water resources, flood risk, food production, biodiversity and human health and well-being on land, at the coast, and at sea. The project will synthesise and aggregrate across sectors and regions, using a variety of approaches, and allow the identification of the risks of specific impacts occurring at different rates of climate change. The methodology and results of the project also provide a framework for the assessment of the impacts of defined climate policies. First, it allows detailed geographically-explicit assessments of specific climate scenarios or climate policies, using the suite of linked models. Second, it allows the more rapid assessment of a very large number of climate outcomes (based for example on a probabilistic assessment of the climate effects of an emissions policy) using regionalised functions relating climate impact to indices of climate forcing. The project will be undertaken by a consortium of twelve lead partners, all with international reputations in the field of climate impact assessment.
Organisations
Publications
Arnell N
(2014)
Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact
in Climatic Change
Arnell N
(2014)
The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale
in Climatic Change
Dawson T
(2014)
Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security
in Climatic Change
Osborne T
(2013)
Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation
in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Gosling S
(2013)
A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity
in Climatic Change
Hagemann S
(2013)
Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models
in Earth System Dynamics
Brown S
(2013)
Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA
in Climatic Change
Arnell N
(2013)
A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change
in Nature Climate Change
Arnell N
(2013)
The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale
in Journal of Hydrology
Fraser E
(2013)
"Vulnerability hotspots": Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought
in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Gottschalk P
(2012)
How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios
in Biogeosciences
Nóbrega M
(2011)
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Nicholls RJ
(2011)
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.
in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
Gosling S
(2011)
Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis
in Hydrological Processes
Xu H
(2011)
Quantifying uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in sub-catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins, China
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Todd M
(2011)
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources - preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Thorne R
(2011)
Uncertainty in the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of a subarctic environment: Liard River Basin
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Hughes D
(2011)
Uncertainty in water resources availability in the Okavango River basin as a result of climate change
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Kingston D
(2011)
Uncertainty in climate change projections of discharge for the Mekong River Basin
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Fraser E
(2011)
Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems: Conceptual Challenges and Interdisciplinary Solutions
in Ecology and Society
Gosling S
(2011)
A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Lloyd SJ
(2011)
Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.
in Environmental health perspectives
Yeh P
(2011)
Multimodel Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results
in Journal of Hydrometeorology
Arnell N
(2011)
Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments
in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Description | Influence on UK climate policy negotiators |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
Impact | The paper (Arnell et al., 2013) has been used by DECC to support its position on climate change temperature targets. The paper describes the impacts avoided by different climate change pathways, and was produced during the DECC-funded AVOID project which built upon QUEST-GSI. |
Description | AVOID |
Amount | £800,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department of Energy and Climate Change |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2009 |
End | 03/2013 |
Description | AVOID2 |
Amount | £1,450,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department of Energy and Climate Change |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2014 |
End | 03/2016 |
Title | QUEST-GSI global impacts |
Description | The QUEST-GSI project produced estimates of the impacts of climate change across a range of metrics at gridded (0.5x0.5o) and regional scales. The gridded data are available through BADC, and the regional data are provided as Supplementary Material in published papers. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2014 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | None yet |
URL | http://badc.nerc.ac.uk |
Description | Groundwater, Climate Change & Adaptation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Lead presentation at a side event at COP15 in Copenhagen n/a |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2009 |