Amazon Integrated Carbon Analysis / AMAZONICA
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: Sch of Geography
Abstract
Amazonian tropical forests cover the largest forested area globally, constitute the largest reservoir of above-ground organic carbon and are exceptionally species rich. They are under strong human pressure through logging, forest to pasture conversion and exploitation of natural resources. They face a warming climate and a changing atmospheric environment. These factors have the potential to affect significantly the global atmospheric greenhouse gas burden (CO2, CH4), chemistry and climate. A central diagnostic of the state and changes of the land surface is its net carbon balance but currently we do not even know the sign of this balance. Although estimates of fluxes associated with known contributing processes such as deforestation exist, along with evidence for responses of undisturbed rainforests to a changing environment and substantial inter-annual fluctuations, different estimates vary widely. Thus it is very difficult to determine the overall significance of these independent estimates. The uncertainty of the greenhouse gas balances have also made it difficult to assess the realism of future model simulation predictions of the Amazon, some of them predicting alarming fates for the rainforests. Ultimately, the most stringent constraint on surface fluxes of a compound is its accumulation / depletion in overlying air. A major large-scale constraint on the net balance of the Amazon that would resolve the discrepancy in the various carbon flux estimates is therefore an accurate characterization of the 3D carbon cycle related tropospheric greenhouse gas concentration fields above the entire basin. Spatio-temporal concentration patterns can further be translated into surface flux fields using inverse modelling of atmospheric transport. By incorporating the large amount of existing on-ground data on ecosystem functioning from LBA, the RAINFOR network, and the ongoing TROBIT NERC project / and targeted measurements where knowledge gaps remain - into a coupled land-surface land-ecosystem model, we will develop a properly data-grounded model representation of the system. Further, the model will be tested by comparing its predictions with observed atmospheric concentration patterns. In turn this will permit defensible projections of the future of Amazonian vegetation. Human activity climate interactions and the land river link will also for the first time be included in these simulations. Therefore, we propose a project of 5 year duration based on the following five pillars: 1. To obtain large-scale budgets of greenhouse gases top-down, based on atmospheric concentration data and inverse atmospheric transport modelling. 2. To estimate fluxes associated with individual processes bottom-up, based on existing and new remote sensing information (deforestation and fires), tree-by-tree censuses in undisturbed forests, and river carbon measurements. 3. To use existing, and, where missing, targeted new, on-ground measurements of ecosystem functioning and climate response, in order to constrain land ecosystem and river carbon model representation, which will then be combined in an integrated land carbon cycle model. 4. To couple a fully integrated land carbon cycle model (from 3) into a regional climate model and use it (i) to predict current concentrations, and (ii) to calculate the systems response to a changing climate and human population, given a representative range of scenarios. 5. In a final synthesis step we will analyse and combine top-down (1) and bottom-up estimates (2&3) to develop multiple constraint and mutually consistent carbon fluxes over the four-year measurement period. We expect to obtain much better quantification of a major but currently poorly constrained component of the global carbon cycle, based on a new understanding of the underlying processes and their large-scale effect. The project will also provide much improved predictions of the response of the Amazon to future climate change.
Publications
Draper FC
(2021)
Amazon tree dominance across forest strata.
in Nature ecology & evolution
ForestPlots.net
(2021)
Taking the pulse of Earth's tropical forests using networks of highly distributed plots
in Biological Conservation
Cuni-Sanchez A
(2021)
High aboveground carbon stock of African tropical montane forests
in Nature
Gatti LV
(2021)
Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change.
in Nature
Liang J
(2022)
Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients
in Nature Ecology & Evolution
Gatti L
(2023)
Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement
in Nature
Pos E
(2023)
Unraveling Amazon tree community assembly using Maximum Information Entropy: a quantitative analysis of tropical forest ecology.
in Scientific reports
Basso L
(2023)
Atmospheric CO 2 inversion reveals the Amazon as a minor carbon source caused by fire emissions, with forest uptake offsetting about half of these emissions
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Ter Steege H
(2023)
Mapping density, diversity and species-richness of the Amazon tree flora
in Communications Biology
Peripato V
(2023)
More than 10,000 pre-Columbian earthworks are still hidden throughout Amazonia.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Pattnayak K
(2023)
Fate of Rainfall Over the North Indian States in the 1.5 and 2°C Warming Scenarios
in Earth and Space Science
Description | First greenhouse balances for the Amazon A greenhouse gas monitoring network for the Amazon Controls / sensitivities of greenhouse gas balances of the Amazon to inter-annual variation of climate in a warming environment and strong human development pressure We found specifically distinct response to organic Amazon Carbon to anomalously hot and dry years which is of concern given that the Amazon region has been warming rapidly over recent decades. These results have been published in Nature (2009, Gatti et al.). We have furthermore recently been able to reconcile the Amazon methane budget estimated based on our - still ongoing - aircraft based lower troposphere greenhouse gas sampling with flux estimates based on on-ground measurements which have shown that trees function as an important conduit for methane to the atmosphere. This work has been published in Nature (2017, Pangala et al.). |
Exploitation Route | A basis for tropical South American greenhouse gas observation networks |
Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Environment |
Description | Hard to measure but most likely the results have an impact on policy of greenhouse gas balance reporting. |
First Year Of Impact | 2014 |
Sector | Education,Environment,Transport |
Impact Types | Societal |
Title | CH4 Aircraft Vertical Profiles Measurements at Four Amazonian Sites Between 2010 and 2018 |
Description | To improve diagnosis of Amazonia's carbon cycle, starting in 2010, we initiated regular observation of lower troposphere CH4 concentrations at four aircraft vertical profiling sites spread over the Brazilian Amazonia. The four sites from the CARBAM project at Amazonia: SAN (2.86S 54.95W); ALF (8.80S 56.75W); RBA (9.38S 67.62W); TAB (5.96S 70.06W) was from 2010 to 2012 and TEF (3.39S 65.6W), started in 2013. The sampling period was typically twice per month (Gatti et al., 2014; Basso et al., 2016; Miller et al., 2007; d'Amelio et al., 2009; Domingues et al., 2020). Over nine-years, 590 vertical profiles were performed in a descending spiral profile from 4420 m to 300 m a.s.l. A mean of 75 vertical profiles was performed per year from 2010 to 2018 at the 4 sites, except for 2015 and 2016. In 2015 the flight collection was stopped in April at all sites, returning only in November at RBA. In 2016 only RBA and ALF were measured. The vertical profiles were usually taken between 12:0 and 13:00 local time. Air is sampled by semi-automatic filling of 0.7 L boro-silicate flasks inside purpose-built suitcases (PFP -Programmable Flask Package) (Tans et al., 1996); there are two versions, one with 17 flasks at SAN, and another with 12 flasks at TAB_TEF, ALF and RBA. This suitcase is connected to a compressor package (PCP -Portable Compressor Package), containing batteries and 2 compressors, which is connected to an air inlet on the outside of the aircraft at wing or window, depending on the aircraft model. Once a PFP (i.e. one vertical profile) has been filled with air the PFP is transported (from 2010 to 2014) to the IPEN (Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares) Atmospheric Chemistry Laboratory in Sao Paulo, Brazil and since 2015 to the INPE/ LaGEE(Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/Greenhouse Gases Laboratory), in Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo state, Brazil. This laboratory is a replica of the NOAA/ESRL/GMD trace gas analysis system at Boulder, Colorado, USA, and was constructed in 2003 and sent to IPEN where started the analysis in 2004. The CH 4 analysis system is an FID (Flame Ionization Detector) chromatography (HP6890 Plus+ model) with pre-column of 198 cm of length and 3/16" o.d. (Silica Gel 80/100 mesh), a column of 106 cm of length and 3/16" o.d. (Molecular Sieve 5A 80/100 mesh), and a 12 mL volume sample loop (see Basso et al. 2016 for a detailed description). In order to assess the accuracy and long-term repeatability of the CH4 measurements, a previously calibrated sample is measured as an unknown in the system regularly. These results indicate long-term repeatability (one sigma) of 1.0 ppb. An inter-comparison between INPE and NOAA of weekly measurements at NAT (Brazilian northeast coast site) had a mean difference of 0.24±2.67 ppb (r = 0.98). |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.934596 |
Title | Height-diameter input data and R-code to fit and assess height-diameter models, from 'Field methods for sampling tree height for tropical forest biomass estimation' in Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
Description | 1. Quantifying the relationship between tree diameter and height is a key component of efforts to estimate biomass and carbon stocks in tropical forests. Although substantial site-to-site variation in height-diameter allometries has been documented, the time consuming nature of measuring all tree heights in an inventory plot means that most studies do not include height, or else use generic pan-tropical or regional allometric equations to estimate height. 2. Using a pan-tropical dataset of 73 plots where at least 150 trees had in-field ground-based height measurements, we examined how the number of trees sampled affects the performance of locally-derived height-diameter allometries, and evaluated the performance of different methods for sampling trees for height measurement. 3. Using cross-validation, we found that allometries constructed with just 20 locally measured values could often predict tree height with lower error than regional or climate-based allometries (mean reduction in prediction error = 0.46 m). The predictive performance of locally-derived allometries improved with sample size, but with diminishing returns in performance gains when more than 40 trees were sampled. Estimates of stand-level biomass produced using local allometries to estimate tree height show no over- or under-estimation bias when compared with estimates using measured heights. We evaluated five strategies to sample trees for height measurement, and found that sampling strategies that included measuring the heights of the ten largest diameter trees in a plot outperformed (in terms of resulting in local height-diameter models with low height prediction error) entirely random or diameter size-class stratified approaches. 4. Our results indicate that even remarkably limited sampling of heights can be used to refine height-diameter allometries. We recommend aiming for a conservative threshold of sampling 50 trees per location for height measurement, and including the ten trees with the largest diameter in this sample. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Description | Air column Greenhouse and atmospheric composition retrieval using FTIR, Porto Velho |
Organisation | Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy |
Country | Belgium |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | The NERC project led to installation of an FTIR at Porto Velho. This instrument now retrieves regularly whole air column atmospheric composition data. It is to our knowledge the first and only one inside the Amazon basin. Amongst others it is of great value for validating satellite instruments based on the same principle. |
Collaborator Contribution | They run the station and retrievals. |
Impact | Ongoing - no publications yet. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Amazon greenhouse gas measurement network |
Organisation | National Institute for Space Research Brazil |
Country | Brazil |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | PDRA staying at University of Leeds for one year (bolsa ciencia sem fronteiras) (Dr. Luana Basso) Several publications about status and changes of the Amazon forests via analysis of lower-troposphere greenhouse gas measurements and atmospheric transport modelling Have been staying at INPE or several months per year as part of a stipend (Bolsa Ciencia sem fronteiras) guest professorship - the bolsa included research money A proposal to CNPQ for sustaining and expanding the Amazon greenhouse gas monitoring network - which will be resubmitted shortly. It would fund new measurements techniques (COS, d13CO2) as well as support to continue existing measurement sites. |
Collaborator Contribution | The high precision gas analytics laboratory at INPE led by Luciana Gatti analysis flask air for greenhouse gases and trace substances which permit conclusions the source type of greenhouse gas emissions. |
Impact | Many publications including sofar one publication in Nature (Gatti et al. 2014). |
Start Year | 2008 |
Description | Land use change, deforestation Amazonia |
Organisation | National Institute for Space Research Brazil |
Country | Brazil |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Luiz Aragao, Fabien Wagner, INPE, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil |
Collaborator Contribution | Collaboration on theme listed above. Has led to a joint grant (BIO-RED) with aim to use drones / remote sensing to understand / quantify amongst others deforestation and fire interactions. |
Impact | Several publications - some currently in preparation. |
Start Year | 2010 |
Description | Synthesis Amazon Carbon balance |
Organisation | University of Exeter |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Supervision of student (Thais Rosan), compilation of a range of estimates based on various processes including atmospheric transport inverse modelling results obtained by PDRA Luana Basso. |
Collaborator Contribution | Co-supervision of student (Stephen Sitch) |
Impact | Synthesis paper has been submitted and is in review. |
Start Year | 2019 |
Description | Invited lecture at Belem summer school (invited by Marcos Adami) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
Results and Impact | Lecture entitled 'Climate impacts on Amazonian Forests' |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Invited talk 25 year Jubilee Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Invited talk - presentation of a wide range of results including climate change of tropical South America, changes of its carbon balance, sensiitivity of tropical forests to heat and drought stress |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |