Future Resilience for African CiTies And Lands (FRACTAL)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Oxford
Department Name: Geography - SoGE
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Planned Impact
FRACTAL aims to fundamentally alter how African cities include climate change in development planning, in a context with no direct historical precedent. This is critical given that the interests of the majority urban population place an inviolable demand (with substantial regional dependencies) on water, energy and associated infrastructure. FRACTAL recognizes that supply-driven climate information (e.g. IPCC) is having limited impact in real world decision making, largely due to messages of limited relevance or robustness at the scales and for the contexts of decision making.
We directly address this inadequacy through increased understanding of regional climate information and informed by co-exploration with decision makers. FRACTAL seek s to bring fundamental changes in key decision pathways (around water, flooding and energy) to increase the resilience of city-regions. This will leave a legacy of new knowledge, capacity and learning exemplars in 5 city-regions from which Africa can build. FRACTAL will provide an essential counterpart and balance in a landscape where the majority of climate development actions have non-urban, sectoral or rural foci.
There are four groups of beneficiaries:
a) Policy and decision-makers in government, resource management and infrastructure from local officials (case-study cities) to national-scale line Ministries which oversee urban development and the planning of infrastructure and regional services. These benefit through: co-generation of information and policy guidelines; new frameworks for incorporating climate change information in the context of multiple stressors and competing agendas; deep co-learning benefits led by researchers embedded in city governments; peer-to-peer relationships that lead to learning opportunities amongst the city partners; written materials generated by the project.
b) International and regional development institutions. The project will present research findings to guide development organizations and funders who are important contributors to development and adaptation trajectories. This will be strengthened by leveraging existing networks, ie the consortium's IPCC/WCRP/SASSCAL/Future Earth presence.
c) Academic disciplines and research communities in Africa and internationally. A publication strategy will place papers in disciplinary journals and the work will be disseminated at major conferences. Academics from under-capacitated African universities will benefit through the production of research, teaching tools and supporting publications. New inter-institutional relationships will foster the establishment of critical research capacity within the region to initiate key research agendas. Collaboration with the international community provides much needed reverse flows of knowledge, giving African researchers valuable entry to participate in research governance on the international scale (WCRP, IPCC, etc.).
d) Society. While largely an indirect process, this grouping has potential to receive the largest impact and benefit. By operating in the placed-based context of the majority of the population, FRACTAL can help steer development to enhance the quality of life and human security of large sections of society, as well as protect the economic system through both enabling opportunities and managing the very high risk of maladaptation with its attendant costs, damages, and inefficiencies. Informed city governance can lead to greater awareness and understanding in the voting population which can introduce major shifts in how nations choose to respond to climate change. Likewise, by changing the policy environment new opportunities for economic engagement are created.
Lastly, a significant cross-cutting impact is the building of trust relationships, dialogue and learning between and within these communities, which fosters growth potential as adaptation increasingly adopts a policy-first approach (versus a science-scenario-first approach).
We directly address this inadequacy through increased understanding of regional climate information and informed by co-exploration with decision makers. FRACTAL seek s to bring fundamental changes in key decision pathways (around water, flooding and energy) to increase the resilience of city-regions. This will leave a legacy of new knowledge, capacity and learning exemplars in 5 city-regions from which Africa can build. FRACTAL will provide an essential counterpart and balance in a landscape where the majority of climate development actions have non-urban, sectoral or rural foci.
There are four groups of beneficiaries:
a) Policy and decision-makers in government, resource management and infrastructure from local officials (case-study cities) to national-scale line Ministries which oversee urban development and the planning of infrastructure and regional services. These benefit through: co-generation of information and policy guidelines; new frameworks for incorporating climate change information in the context of multiple stressors and competing agendas; deep co-learning benefits led by researchers embedded in city governments; peer-to-peer relationships that lead to learning opportunities amongst the city partners; written materials generated by the project.
b) International and regional development institutions. The project will present research findings to guide development organizations and funders who are important contributors to development and adaptation trajectories. This will be strengthened by leveraging existing networks, ie the consortium's IPCC/WCRP/SASSCAL/Future Earth presence.
c) Academic disciplines and research communities in Africa and internationally. A publication strategy will place papers in disciplinary journals and the work will be disseminated at major conferences. Academics from under-capacitated African universities will benefit through the production of research, teaching tools and supporting publications. New inter-institutional relationships will foster the establishment of critical research capacity within the region to initiate key research agendas. Collaboration with the international community provides much needed reverse flows of knowledge, giving African researchers valuable entry to participate in research governance on the international scale (WCRP, IPCC, etc.).
d) Society. While largely an indirect process, this grouping has potential to receive the largest impact and benefit. By operating in the placed-based context of the majority of the population, FRACTAL can help steer development to enhance the quality of life and human security of large sections of society, as well as protect the economic system through both enabling opportunities and managing the very high risk of maladaptation with its attendant costs, damages, and inefficiencies. Informed city governance can lead to greater awareness and understanding in the voting population which can introduce major shifts in how nations choose to respond to climate change. Likewise, by changing the policy environment new opportunities for economic engagement are created.
Lastly, a significant cross-cutting impact is the building of trust relationships, dialogue and learning between and within these communities, which fosters growth potential as adaptation increasingly adopts a policy-first approach (versus a science-scenario-first approach).
Organisations
Publications
Gaupp F
(2015)
The role of storage capacity in coping with intra- and inter-annual water variability in large river basins
in Environmental Research Letters
Wheeler K
(2016)
Cooperative filling approaches for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
in Water International
Gaupp F
(2017)
Dependency of Crop Production between Global Breadbaskets: A Copula Approach for the Assessment of Global and Regional Risk Pools.
in Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Dadson S
(2017)
Water security, risk, and economic growth: Insights from a dynamical systems model
in Water Resources Research
Hirpa F
(2018)
Finding sustainable water futures in data-sparse regions under climate change: Insights from the Turkwel River basin, Kenya
in Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Taylor C
(2018)
Mesoscale rainfall patterns observed around wetlands in sub-Saharan Africa
in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Hirpa F
(2019)
Streamflow response to climate change in the Greater Horn of Africa
in Climatic Change
Marthews T
(2019)
The Impact of Human-Induced Climate Change on Regional Drought in the Horn of Africa
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Crowhurst D
(2020)
Contrasting controls on Congo Basin evaporation at the two rainfall peaks
in Climate Dynamics
Crowhurst D
(2020)
Evaluation of Evaporation Climatology for the Congo Basin Wet Seasons in 11 Global Climate Models
in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Description | Research funded by this project has led to several ongoing engagements including additional funded projects from the Canadian Aid Agency to investigate the impact of tree planting on hydrology in African Environments. This has involved several researcher exchanges between UK and University of Cape Town. |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Education,Environment |
Impact Types | Cultural Societal Economic |
Description | REACH |
Amount | £15,000,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Government of the UK |
Department | Department for International Development (DfID) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 08/2015 |
End | 09/2022 |
Description | UKSA IPP |
Amount | £2,000,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | UK Space Agency |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2016 |
End | 03/2019 |
Description | DFID-REACH Panellist: Water Security in Africa |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | 150 people from Ethiopia, Kenya, Bangladesh attended a conference of which this panel was a component |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Geographical Association Annual Pilgrim Lecture (to sixth formers) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Schools |
Results and Impact | ~100 students from the region attended and participated in a discussion afterwards. I also held a session to demystify Oxbridge applications afterwards which was well attended. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | REACH Conference DFID |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Chaired panel discussion on Future Climate for Africa at DFID-REACH conference on Improving Water Security for the Poor. Engagement with senior civil servants from DfID, ministers and other policymakers from Ethiopia, Kenya, Bangladesh. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
URL | http://www.reachwater.org |