[Malaysia] Flood Impacts across Scales- informing models of flood exposure and vulnerability via an integrated multi-scale approach
Lead Research Organisation:
UK CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY
Department Name: Hydro-climate Risks
Abstract
Flooding is a threat to communities in both Malaysia and the UK. Computer modelling is a widely used approach to working out which areas are vulnerable to flooding. This allows government agencies, NGOs and communities to work out how to invest time and resources to protect areas at risk. Understanding of the causes of flooding has increased rapidly in recent years. We now have good data on environmental factors like rain and temperature which can influence where floods will happen. There are now good models of climate change. If we work out where flooding is going to happen, computer models can now be used to work out how flood waters will move around cities and which buildings will flood. One problem that still remains is to include the complexities of real life in these models. We currently assume that the same flood will always lead to the same consequences. This makes models quicker to run, but we know it's not how flooding works. If floods occur just before harvests they can destroy entire crops, but if they occur when fields are empty the costs can be very low. If one flood follows another in quick succession, facilities like hospitals and power stations could remain damaged from the first flood, meaning that the second one has much greater impact on people's lives. With research into how communities are affected by flooding, which takes into account the timing of floods as well as how closely associated they are in time, a genuinely new approach to flood risk could be developed.
Malaysia is a very good place to develop these models. Its economy is developing quickly, so new approaches have the opportunity to be tested in a changing environment. Similarly, climate in Malaysia includes monsoons, which are a good test of model ability for environmental modellers. From a development perspective, Malaysia is a success story which is rapidly transitioning towards developed status, but still has large numbers of people at risk and in large areas, development can be set back by severe floods. Lastly, following severe floods in 2014, there is a renewed interest in developing innovative flood risk approaches in Malaysia.
Our approach to developing a new flood model in Malaysia would make use of the different experts in our group. Bringing together experts from the UK and Malaysia, both of which have invested significantly in flood research in the last decade, would allow us to combine skills from experts with different specialities. Our economists will use economic modelling to understand how different sectors of the economy might change in future and how they might be exposed to flooding. Our group's environmental scientists will use existing computer models of rivers to show where river levels are likely to become high enough to generate flooding. Our flooding engineers will apply new hydraulics models to show how flood waters move once they have left the rivers. Experts in combining computer model outputs will combine each of these into a new model of flood risks. This new model will be used to find the effects of scenarios (factors we can't control such as climate change and increasing urbanisation) and strategies (factors we can control such as new flood defences and warning systems) which will help to evaluate some of these strategies for their effectiveness and value for money. This will allow future flood planning to be better targeted within Malaysia. We hope that Malaysia will act as a good case study for this research and that it would be taken up by other countries in South East Asia and around the world.
Malaysia is a very good place to develop these models. Its economy is developing quickly, so new approaches have the opportunity to be tested in a changing environment. Similarly, climate in Malaysia includes monsoons, which are a good test of model ability for environmental modellers. From a development perspective, Malaysia is a success story which is rapidly transitioning towards developed status, but still has large numbers of people at risk and in large areas, development can be set back by severe floods. Lastly, following severe floods in 2014, there is a renewed interest in developing innovative flood risk approaches in Malaysia.
Our approach to developing a new flood model in Malaysia would make use of the different experts in our group. Bringing together experts from the UK and Malaysia, both of which have invested significantly in flood research in the last decade, would allow us to combine skills from experts with different specialities. Our economists will use economic modelling to understand how different sectors of the economy might change in future and how they might be exposed to flooding. Our group's environmental scientists will use existing computer models of rivers to show where river levels are likely to become high enough to generate flooding. Our flooding engineers will apply new hydraulics models to show how flood waters move once they have left the rivers. Experts in combining computer model outputs will combine each of these into a new model of flood risks. This new model will be used to find the effects of scenarios (factors we can't control such as climate change and increasing urbanisation) and strategies (factors we can control such as new flood defences and warning systems) which will help to evaluate some of these strategies for their effectiveness and value for money. This will allow future flood planning to be better targeted within Malaysia. We hope that Malaysia will act as a good case study for this research and that it would be taken up by other countries in South East Asia and around the world.
Planned Impact
Our research tackles a critical and neglected area of large-scale flood risk assessment: the representation of damage models, including exposure, vulnerability and inundation. Current practice uses simplistic functions of hydrologically modelled depth to infer a single static value for a flood of a given probability. Our goal is to use modern hydrological and hydrodynamic tools to develop and assess a methodology for end-to-end flood risk assessment based on modelling the specific impacts at each location and each time step, from distributed meteorological input through to maps of flood damage. This will allow new representations of seasonality, recurrence effects of flooding and sector-specific consequences to be modelled. Malaysia is an excellent location for this study as it is rapidly developing, although retaining large agricultural sectors and many vulnerable communities. The UK and Malaysia share a common challenge in flood risk and there is a real appetite to exchange research findings and build long term collaborations among agencies, businesses and academics. Our beneficiaries will include: Malaysian citizens. Developing an understanding of current and future flood risk will make the people of Malaysia safer. They will also be less likely to be displaced by floods and to suffer flood-related impacts on their livelihoods through destruction of their homes and businesses. Government Ministries and Agencies, including our project partners the Department for Irrigation and Drainage. Government agencies will be able to identify with greater accuracy how effective their strategic scale flood plans are likely to be. This will allow resources to be more effectively targeted. By providing an improved assessment of new flood mitigation options we can ensure that they are more likely to invest in flood adaptations which are well placed and do not reduce their options for future investment (maladaptation). Research Organisations, including our partners the Regional Humid Tropical Hydrology Centre and NAHRIM. Working closely with our research institute project partners we will provide a forum for integrating their ideas and sharing expertise. Our central model is based on interdisciplinary combination of socio-economic, environmental science and engineering approaches, which we will develop in partnership with these research organisations and similar organisations in their networks. Working collaboratively, we will be able to provide the opportunity to test strategies and scenarios they suggest within our modelling framework. This will result in new connections, new perspectives for them and for us and dialogue across multiple institutes. Academic Community. The research will benefit researchers in hydrology, environmental modelling, hydraulics and hydrodynamics, and socio-economics. It will provide an impetus and mechanism for increased Malaysia-UK academic collaboration, and benefit both communities through increased exchange. The research team has a strong international academic track record and are involved in academic and professional networks which will increase uptake of within the broader academic community.
Publications
Description | The FIAS research indicates that mean river flows across Malaysia are expected to decrease over the next 60 years, but peak river flows (extremes) are expected to increase. This is because although overall rainfall totals are expected to decrease, rainfall intensities are projected to increase. Malaysian states most likely to experience increases are: Putrajaya, Negeri Semilan, Perak, Kelantan, Pahang. |
Exploitation Route | The outcomes of this research can be used to inform water resources planning and flood management decisions across Malaysia. Discussions are ongoing with ONWR Thailand to possibly extend the analysis to Thailand. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Communities and Social Services/Policy Environment |
Description | Non academic impacts: The FIAS project has published a policy briefing for flood stakeholders, and visited the region in September 2023 to discuss project findings with a wide range of stakeholders (industry, policymakers, academics). |
First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | Options for Net Zero Plus and Climate Change Adaptation |
Amount | £9,440,200 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/X006247/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2022 |
End | 03/2026 |
Title | A land use map of Peninsular Malaysia for the year 2018 (25m grid) |
Description | Gridded land use map of Peninsular Malaysia with a resolution of approximate 25 meters for the year 2018. The map includes nine different classes: 1) non-paddy agriculture, 2) paddy fields, 3) rural residential, 4) urban residential, 5) commercial/institutional, 6) industrial/infrastructure, 7) roads, 8) urban and 9) others. The land use map was created as part of the project "Malaysia - Flood Impact Across Scales". The project is funded under the Newton-Ungku Omar Fund 'Understanding of the Impacts of Hydrometeorological Hazards in South East Asia' call. The grant was jointly awarded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the MYPAIR Scheme under the Ministry of Higher Education of Malaysia. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2021 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | This dataset will be used within the FIAS (the current) project to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on floods across Peninsula Malaysia |
URL | https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/36df244e-11c8-44bc-aa9b-79427123c42c |
Title | Historical (1971-2005) and projected (2006-2099) hydrological model (HMF-Malaysia) estimates of monthly mean and annual maximum river flows across Peninsular Malaysia driven by CORDEX-SEA projected climate data |
Description | This dataset comprises multiple baseline and future ensembles of hydrological model estimates of monthly mean and annual maximum river flows (m3s-1) on a 0. 0.008333° × 0. 0.008333° grid (approximate grid of 1 km × 1 km) across Peninsular Malaysia. Specifically, these are provided for historical (1971 to 2005) and projected future (2006 to 2099) periods, for 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). This dataset is the output from the Hydrological Modelling Framework for Malaysia, or "HMF-Malaysia" model. The projected future hydrology simulations are provided for CORDEX-SEA (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - South East Asia) three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) assuming (i) current artificial influences (CAI) such as water transfers and diversions and (ii) planned future artificial influences (FAI). This dataset is an output from the hydrological modelling study from the Malaysia - Flood Impacts Across Scales (FIAS) project. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | These data will enable researchers across South East Asia to analyse future projections of high river flows across Malaysia, and undertake further work to link these high flow projections with impacts and develop mitigation measures |
URL | https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/9b70bebe-189c-4ae8-9aee-1bb1db7b1ad5 |
Description | MoUs with UKCEH signed for 2 Malaysian Universities: UKM and UPM |
Organisation | National University of Malaysia |
Country | Malaysia |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | In partnership with our FIAS colleagues UKCEH negotiated 2 MoUs with these universities. these agreements will facilitate continued research in Malaysia funded by NERC NC International |
Collaborator Contribution | Agreed and signed MoUs in support of NC International |
Impact | continued research collaboration and a stakeholder meeting planned for June 2023 |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | MoUs with UKCEH signed for 2 Malaysian Universities: UKM and UPM |
Organisation | Putra Malaysia University |
Country | Malaysia |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | In partnership with our FIAS colleagues UKCEH negotiated 2 MoUs with these universities. these agreements will facilitate continued research in Malaysia funded by NERC NC International |
Collaborator Contribution | Agreed and signed MoUs in support of NC International |
Impact | continued research collaboration and a stakeholder meeting planned for June 2023 |
Start Year | 2022 |
Title | Projected future changes in river flows across Peninsular Malaysia |
Description | The data presented in this portal shows hydrological model estimates of projected future changes in river flows (m3s-1) across Peninsular Malaysia. The hydrological model is HMF-Malaysia, which provides grid-based and spatially-consistent simulations of river flows at a 0.008333° × 0.008333° grid (approximate grid of 1 km × 1 km) resolution across Malaysia. Changes in river flows are calculated between historical (1976-2005) and projected future (2006-2099) time periods using CORDEX-SEA climate model data. These data are also available to download from the EIDC (Rameshwaran et al., 2022). |
Type Of Technology | Webtool/Application |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Impact | The webtool proved to be an excellent way to communicate our research with stakeholders in Malaysia and Thailand |
URL | https://seasiawater.ceh.ac.uk/ |
Description | CEH Press release |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Press release on the CEH website: "New funding has been awarded for three separate three-year projects that will improve risk assessments and enable better infrastructure planning in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, by working with experts and communities in the countries." |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
URL | https://www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-media/news/new-projects-will-help-reduce-devastating-impact-extreme-w... |
Description | CEH Webpage |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Project webpage created on the UKCEH website advertising what the project aims to do, and who to contact for more information |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
URL | https://www.ceh.ac.uk/our-science/projects/flood-impacts-across-scales |
Description | Engagement with Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID), Malaysia |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Presented Flood Impacts Across Scales (FIAS) research, projected changes in future flows, floods, and issues around river flow monitoring relating to regularly changing rating curves and resulting unrealistic river flow observations. Researchers involved: Vicky Bell (UKCEH), Ponnambalam Rameshwaran (UKCEH), Balqis Rehan (UPM), Zed Zulkafli (UPM), Badronnisa Binti Yusuf UPM) and Paul Sayers (Sayers & Partners) |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Engagement with the Early Career Researchers at Universiti Putra Malaysia |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | PhD and MSc students presented their research. Vicky Bell and Ponnambalam Rameshwaran engaged with their views and suggestions. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Exploring Flood Risk in Peninsular Malaysia |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Knowledge exchange seminar: (1) Flood Impacts Across Scales: A UK-Malaysia Collaboration (2) Flood risk management in Malaysia (3) Climate change flood risk assessment in the UK (4) Enabling a multiscale risk assessment (5) The impact of projected climate change on river flows: Malaysia (6) Understanding changes in flood risk across Peninsular Malaysia Speakers: Dr Balqis Mohamed Rehan (UPM), Dr Vicky Bell (UKCEH), Dr Paul Sayers (Sayers and Partners), Dr Ponnambalam Rameshwaran (UKCEH), Dr Zed Diyana Zulkafli (UPM) The seminar is conducted to disseminate findings from the NERC-NEWTON project to scientists and stakeholders. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Field trip and visit to the Global Environment Centre - an environmental NGO |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
Results and Impact | In Malaysia they are promoting biodiversity in (concrete) river channels by introducing small islands with vegetation and rocks. These slow the flow and increase biodiversity in the rivers. They also run a citizen science project to encourage/train members of the public to take river samples and log the results on a database (River Care Programme (RCP) - Home (riverranger.my)). We visited a river where these interventions had been installed, and to their visitor centre where they grow the plants they install in the rivers. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://www.gec.org.my/ |
Description | PhD student questionnaire/field surveys of residents and businesses in Kelantan, Malaysia |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Local |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Members of the project team held meetings with householders and businesses at risk of flooding in Kelantan, Malaysia, to understand their views and concerns. A questionnaire was filled in to help WP1 quantify the impact of flooding on businesses and residents. This information will help improve national-scale estimates of flood damages across Malaysia. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Stakeholder Workshop in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Meeting between the Project team and Floods-related stakeholders in Malaysia. The aims were: • To explore views and opinions of key stakeholders at an early stage of the project to maximise potential project impacts. • To better understand the challenges and issues affecting fluvial flooding and flood management in the Malaysian peninsula (MP). • To ensure the project is informed from the outset and can be tailored (where reasonably possible) to meet stakeholder needs to secure meaningful and relevant project outcomes. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Training course for MSc/Phd students |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | An Introduction to Climate Data Analysis with Python - a Training Course presented by Matthew Brown (UKCEH). 11 Malaysian postgraduate students attended and they provided very good feedback. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Understanding and Mitigating Future Flood Risk: UK and Malaysia |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Knowledge sharing (organised by the Institution of Engineers, Malaysia) "Technical Talks: (1) Background to the FIAS UK - Malaysia Collaboration (Dr Balqis Mohamed Rehan) (2) The impact of projected climate change on river flows: UK and Malaysia (Dr Vicky Bell) (3) Assessing flood risk management in UK and Malaysia (Dr Paul Sayers) (4) Nature-based solutions for flood mitigation. UK experiences (Dr Ponnambalam Rameshwaran) (5) Ways forward for catchment-scale hydrological modelling in Malaysia (Dr Zed Diyana Zulkafli)" |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Understanding of the Impacts of Hydrometeorological Hazards in South East Asia Mid-term Meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Last November 4 of the project team attended the 2-day meeting "Understanding of the Impacts of Hydrometeorological Hazards in South East Asia Mid-term Meeting" hosted by UKRI/NERC. We prepared a poster summarising progress, and a short presentation. The full poster contained interviews by Balqis Rehan (Malaysia lead) and the ECRs, |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |